As a long-time advocate of expanded immigration, I am delighted to have left/liberal Matthew Yglesias as an ally. Yglesias, who helped found online magazine Vox, is one of the rising stars in journalism and, especially, economic journalism. His latest book, One Billion Americans, advocates what the title says: we should change institutions so that we have 1 billion Americans. This book is particularly needed now. Yglesias’s major argument for more population, though, is not mine: he wants the United States to continue to be the world’s dominant power and worries that if we do not greatly expand our population, China will dominate.
In making this case, he advocates changing several government policies beyond immigration. In fact, he writes much more about those policy changes than he does about changing immigration policy. So, for example, we learn more about his proposals for government-funded childcare, housing, and transportation policy than we do about how many new people and what kinds of people he wants to let into the country each year. He does say he does not want open borders, but he does not say what immigration reform he wants instead.
On the non-immigration issues, he vacillates between intolerance of other people’s choices and great tolerance: he is intolerant of voluntary contracts between employers and employees that do not include paid parental leave, but he is highly tolerant of people’s decisions about what kinds of dwellings to live in. Where he is tolerant, he makes a good case. Where he is not, the book fails. Still, the big picture he paints is good: he shows that we can relatively easily triple the U.S. population without making our country too crowded or overly stressing most of our institutions.
These are the opening three paragraphs of David R. Henderson, “A Reasonably Strong Case for Way More Immigration,” my review of Matt Yglesias, One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger, 2020.
Another excerpt:
Yglesias points out that in 2018, the U.S. fertility rate fell to an all-time low of 1.72 births over the lifetime of the average woman. He argues, probably correctly, that an important factor causing women to have fewer children is the increasing cost of raising them. Whether the primary caretaker is a woman or a man, the persistent growth in real wages is raising the opportunity cost of rearing children. The law of demand rears its ugly head: when the price of something rises, then, all else equal, people buy less of it.
In a book that advocates massive increases in immigration, a natural next step to take would be to argue for reducing the cost of child rearing by allowing millions of immigrants, probably disproportionately women, into the United States from the poorest countries in Latin America, such as Guatemala and El Salvador, the poorest countries in Africa, such as Zimbabwe and the Congo, and the poorest countries in Asia, such as India. It would not be hard to get 50 million immigrants from those places in a period of, say, five years. They would benefit and many current U.S. families would benefit from a dramatic fall in the cost of childcare.
But that is not where Yglesias goes. Instead, he advocates massive new government programs to subsidize the provision of childcare. He writes that “the United States has been shamefully slow compared with some peer countries to provide subsidized child care.” But the closest he comes to explaining why U.S. policy is shameful is to argue that because other countries are doing it, we should too.
Read the whole thing.
READER COMMENTS
robc
Dec 10 2020 at 1:18pm
Another way to do this would be to expand the borders. I extend the old saying “From sea to shining sea” to include “From Baffin Bay to Tierra del Fuego.” Voluntarily, of course. More Louisiana Purchase and less Mexican War.
That takes the population to just over 1 Billion without anyone having to move. We would just have to get US institutions in place (although I probably need to mostly fix them here first).
Michael Stack
Dec 11 2020 at 12:42pm
This reminds me of a Simpsons episode:
Homer: “We must be the worst family in town.”
Marge: “Maybe we should move to a larger community.”
TMC
Dec 11 2020 at 9:02am
“allowing millions of immigrants, probably disproportionately women, into the United States from the poorest countries ” And they will carry no cost to society? The US feds spends about $54k per year per family of 4. There’s no way these families will be able to carry their own weight – even if the marginal cost is only half of that.
States and cities will also spend $140k per child they have in education over the child’s lifetime. Likely more given that they will settle in higher cost cities that need immigrants more.
This is extremely expensive low cost labor Yglesias wants to import. I get the same tingle when I hear this argument as when my daughter ‘saves’ me $50 by getting something she doesn’t need on sale.
I’m for more immigration though. I’m a son of an immigrant, who had to show he could pay his own way before being allowed in. Let’s just target it to whom can pay their way better, even at lower numbers than listed above.
David Henderson
Dec 11 2020 at 6:51pm
You write:
I would bet that the marginal cost is more like 1/4 of that. I’ll provide more detail later if you’re interested. But if you’ve followed co-blogger Bryan Caplan’s posts on this, especially about his graphic novel (not really a novel), you’ll know more. Tell me if you want me to guide you to some of it.
You write:
You’re conflating Yglesias and Henderson (me). This is my proposal, not his.
But also I’m not advocating importing anyone. I’m advocating letting them in. Slaves were imported. Pretty much everyone else came on his or her own or with parents.
You wrote:
Good.
You wrote:
That works for me. I’ve advocated pricing it at $50,000, which, if I’m right about the 1/4 number above, would mean that many of them would be more than paying their way. (Take your $54K number, divide by 4 to get per person, which is $13.5K and divide by 4 again to get marginal cost, which is $4.4K per year.)
I think you might be surprised about the millions of poor people from poor countries who would still see this as a good deal and would be willing to pay.
john hare
Dec 12 2020 at 5:42am
I haven’t thought enough about your $50k price to be for or against it. From personal contacts, I know of several “low skilled” (I.E. they are not stupid enough to tell me they got here illegally at first) immigrants that would have jumped at the chance to be free and clear for $50k if it could be financed over 5 years or so. While it may seem impossible to some, $1,000.00 a month payment including interest on top of living expenses, is affordable to someone at minimum wage if highly motivated. 60-80 hour work weeks and Spartan living are not difficult for the motivated.
The ones I am thinking of had to work around the constant possibility of deportation until they could establish legal residency. The inability of getting a legitimate drivers license which is required to get a decent job in my area. The exploitation by employers that play the game with people that can’t just turn them in on tax, insurance, safety, and overtime issues without risk of deportation. And likely a number of other issues they are also not stupid enough to discuss with me. If many of the motivated but initially unskilled had had the shot you suggest, I doubt they would have spent more than a year or so at the bottom. Work ethic and motivation are skills in demand.
I have mentioned before my disagreement with the focus on highly skilled immigration and disparagement of the “low skilled”.
David Henderson
Dec 15 2020 at 7:00pm
Well said, John. Thanks.
TMC
Dec 12 2020 at 3:57pm
Thank you for the thoughtful reply. If the marginal cost per person is 1/4 of that 13k, then that isn’t too bad. It certainly allows for more working class people to come here. The children are expensive though. We do have to account for the $140k it costs to get a child through high school. I have friends who are teachers in school districts with a high percentage of students whose parents are here illegally. It’s really a crushing cost to educate them all.
I’ll revisit some of Bryan’s posts about immigration. I gave up when I thought he was glossing over a lot of the costs involved, but it bears a second look.
robc
Dec 14 2020 at 11:17am
Keyhole solution:
Slowly increase the number of green cards issued per year, but sell them via a Dutch auction.
I know a former co-worker who would bid well more than 50k to switch from H1-B to Green Card status.
David Henderson
Dec 15 2020 at 7:00pm
That’s a good solution.
Michael Pettengill
Dec 12 2020 at 4:58pm
Half the children born to US citizens from before 1900 will earn less then the other higher earning half of children. But they will require the same services as the higher value half, placing a massive burden on the virtuous real Americans.
This will destroy America, so clearly women need to be assessed to determine if they will produce above average producing child and otherwise prohibited from procreation burdens on society.
Why limit your sights to immigrants? Why not eliminate children who will have childhood leukemia, CF, learning disabilities, etc, from being born US citizens. Why should children of pre-1900 immigrants be allowed to burden the US with below average producers?
I’m the child of an 1620 immigrant who have no problems with ten million immigrants to the US per year, and I’m in the top half of producers, happier when I paid much higher taxes. The focus on cutting costs meant cutting production to match cuts in consumption required to cut costs. My skills in technology toward high speed communication were now too costly when cost cutting dictated eliminating the high cost lower half of rural America from having hundred megabit fiber optic Internet.
Logically, the bottom 10% of addresses in terms of revenue versus costs of roads, schools, police, electricity, telephone, water, should be eliminated, people banned, and reverted to nature, every year. Right?
TMC
Dec 15 2020 at 12:18pm
“Why limit your sights to immigrants?”
Because they have no right to be here. We can control immigration without violating anyone’s rights, but can’t do any of what you suggest without doing so.
David Henderson
Dec 15 2020 at 7:03pm
You write:
Even if we restrict it to the issue of the rights of those already here, as you wish to do, that’s incorrect.
If I can’t rent an apartment to an immigrant, my property rights are violated. If I can’t employ an immigrant, my freedom of association is violated.
TMC
Dec 17 2020 at 11:28am
David,
If we restrict it to the issue of the rights of those already here (though I wasn’t specifically doing so), you can hire them, or rent an apartment to them. If they are here legally. If they are not here legally, they should technically be removed or put go through a process to become legal. Just because they haven’t been caught doesn’t confer any legal rights to them. I also have my rights constrained in selling liquor to minors. You do not have the right to enable illegal behavior.
As Freidman said, you can have open borders, or a welfare state. When you allow people in who can not pay their own way then you are now infringing on my rights in forcing me to subsidize them. As we’ve discussed above, that can get pretty pricey, especially with the $140k per year per kid.
David S
Dec 14 2020 at 5:28pm
I do believe that “we need more people in order to stay ahead of the Chinese” is an argument that would influence the thinking of our conservative brothers and sisters. We need more of this type of argument, showing people that immigrants bring value to the country, especially on topics that those that oppose immigration feel strongly about.
David Henderson
Dec 15 2020 at 7:09pm
Good point.
Warren Platts
Dec 16 2020 at 2:43pm
I’m sorry, but this is a terrible proposal. The fundamental premise: that birth rates are going down because “the persistent growth in real wages is raising the opportunity cost of rearing children” — if only we had more cheap nannies! — I don’t buy. The birth rate for women with graduate or professional degrees (the women with the highest opportunity costs) is 1.8X higher than for women with less than a high school diploma.
In one of Autor’s papers on the China shock, they point out not only did death rates increase in communities most affected by import competition, but also that birth rates declined by 3-4X more than the death rates increased. Note that the main birth rate shock happened after Great Recession 1. Clearly, the decline in real wages for working class households that is mainly responsible for the overall decline in fertility.
Of course David Ricardo predicted this hundreds of years ago: when actual wages are above the “natural” wage, then workers are happy, and the reproduce more. But when actual wages are below the “natural” wage, then workers are miserable, and birth rates decline & death rates increase. Thus if fertility rates are going down, that is a clear market signal that there are too many workers in the labor market.
I say we should let the labor market (aka parents) decide how many workers to produce. It is ironic that a free-market Libertarian thinks it is OK for the government to pick a number out of thin air (Why a billion? Why not 2 billion or 333,333,333?) and then manage immigration rates in order to hit the target chosen by the technocrats.
Warren Platts
Dec 16 2020 at 2:46pm
Then there is the problem of administrating a country with a billion or more people. Do China and India really achieve an economy of scale that makes running those countries more efficient than a France-sized place or even tiny Luxembourg? There should be a rule that whenever a country hits 100 million people, it should split in two. The world would probably be a better, safer place. At least it would be harder to amass the size of militaries that China & USA presently have.
Aleksander
Dec 21 2020 at 8:04am
This doesn’t sound right. Do you have a source?
Comments are closed.