An outcry followed World Bank president David Malpass’s refusal to make a profession of faith in climate change. The New York Times reported (“World Bank Leader, Accused of Climate Denial, Offers a New Response,” September 22, 2022):
The uproar began on Tuesday when Mr. Malpass refused to say during a public event at The New York Times whether the burning of oil, gas and coal was driving climate change.
Speaking onstage during a discussion about what industrialized nations owe developing nations grappling with climate problems, Mr. Malpass was asked to respond to a remark made earlier in the day by former Vice President Al Gore, who called the World Bank president a “climate denier.” Pressed three times, Mr. Malpass would not say whether he accepted that man-made greenhouse gas emissions had created a worsening crisis that is already leading to more extreme weather.
“I’m not a scientist,” he said.
As the NYT title above indicates, Mr. Malpass’s burst of dignity was short-lived. He rapidly got in line and confessed his social heresy. But, like for witches in the 16th and 17th centuries, confessing that he slept with the devil did not win him a pardon. (See also “World Bank Head under Pressure to Quit over Climate Change Doubts,” Financial Times, September 22, 2022; and “World Bank’s David Malpass Says He Isn’t Resigning Amid Criticism of His Climate Views,” Wall Street Journal, September 23, 2022.)
His answer “I am not a scientist” does make some intellectual sense. Whether the climate is changing due to human activity is a valid question, but we should not necessarily accept for cash the answer of politicized scientists. Their professional future and perhaps daily bread depend on their compliance with the reigning political vulgate pushed by power-hungry governments and complicit activists all over this dear earth of ours. Agnosticism may be the best attitude.
“Science” can make mistakes. As Karl Popper argued, the obsession of any scientist is, or should be, to falsify hypotheses. A scientific theory or “law” remains a tentative conclusion. (See Popper’s The Logic of Scientific Discovery [Harper & Row, 1959, 1968]). And social engineering in the name of science is a recipe for disaster. In the early 20th century, for example, mainstream biologists and medical scientists, including public-health experts, supported eugenics. Under the American states’ eugenic laws, in force between 1907 and 1980 depending on the state, 65,000—mainly poor—women were forcibly or fraudulently sterilized under the mantle of science (see sources in my post “Economic Reflections on Abortion”).
A Wall Street Journal op-ed (Steve Milloy, “David Malpass’s Climate-Change Lesson for GOP Candidates,” Wall Street Journal, September 26, 2022) mischievously recalls that
Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson declined to define the word “woman” in her confirmation hearings, pleading, “I’m not a biologist.”
To keep our heads cool, we should also remember that climate change followed the “population bomb,” the “hole in the ozone layer,” and “global warming,” among other scares. But we should of course keep our minds open (see my review of Tyler Cowen’s Stubborn Attachments, where I was perhaps not critical enough).
Another thing to remember is that the World Bank is already helping governments of poor countries mitigate, or adapt to, the presumed consequences of climate change. A World Bank report published in 2021, under Mr. Malpass’s watch, The World Bank NDC Support Facility: Impacts and Lessons Learned Supporting NDC Implementation (NDC stands for Nationally Determined Contribution under the 2015 Paris Agreement), boasted:
The World Bank Group is the largest multilateral funder of climate investments in developing countries, having committed $83 billion to climate-related investments over the last five years.
In a scathing editorial on the attempts to deepen the submission of the World Bank to the environmental activists’ agenda, the Wall Street Journal reminds us what is the main function of the World Bank (“A Gore-Kerry Political Climate Hit,” September 25, 2022):
The World Bank’s main job is to alleviate poverty. This requires energy, which today is still most efficiently and affordably provided by fossil fuels. Yet Mr. Kerry [Joe Biden’s Special Presidential Envoy for Climate] recently cautioned African leaders against investing in long-term natural gas production, as if they have an alternative if they want to develop. …
The World Bank has had enough problems over the years lending to corrupt governments and failing projects. But if it is going to exist, it should stay focused on its mission of promoting growth in poor nations to alleviate poverty. It shouldn’t be hijacked by rich-country climate lobbyists for their own political ends.
It does seem that the attack on Mr. Malpass is neither scientific nor rational.
We may add that if all poor countries had had laissez-faire governments and proper legal institutions like Hong Kong benefited from after 1945, they would likely now be at least as rich as Hong Kong (which has a real GDP per capita equivalent to 92% of the US level, according to data from the Maddison Project) and would not need the World Bank’s handouts to face any possible catastrophe.
READER COMMENTS
Aaron W
Sep 28 2022 at 11:44am
I’ve done a PhD and postdoc doing scientific research related to climate change, and the evidence is pretty clear that climate change (i.e., global warming) is happening and caused by humans. However, I agree that there is a quasi-religious element to climate activism that is a bit bizarre and that climate change and other science has been used as justification for bad government policy.
This part was a bit of a head scratcher and undermines the credibility of that argument, though: ‘To keep our heads cool, we should also remember that climate change followed the “population bomb,” the “hole in the ozone layer,” and “global warming,” among other scares.’
Global warming is climate change? The hole in the ozone layer is no longer a problem because the world phased out the chemicals responsible and it has since recovered? We don’t have to be “scared” by these issues, but we shouldn’t minimize that they impose economic costs. Perhaps the alternative here is to propose free market solutions to environmental problems instead of letting statists claim all of the mantle of moral superiority?
Manfred
Sep 28 2022 at 5:31pm
“…the evidence is pretty clear that climate change (i.e., global warming) is happening and caused by humans…”
Not everybody subscribe to this, and if they do, there is a big variance to the degrees of how much humans and other factors cause it. For example, Steven Koonin in his book “Unsettled”. Koonin is no dummy, PhD in Physics, professor at Caltech for a long time. He can read the scientific literature as well as a PhD in climate science.
Another example is Judith Curry. She has a PhD in related fields (don’t remember now which) to climate science, and she can read the literature as well as any other scientist.
Thus, sorry if I object to your statement that “it is pretty clear”. No, for me it is not clear at all.
MikeW
Sep 29 2022 at 2:19pm
In his defense, I think it’s probably fair to say that “it is clear” that the climate is changing and humans are affecting it, but the problem is that most of what you see about it, including by Al Gore and John Kerry, is greatly exaggerated.
Don Boudreaux
Sep 30 2022 at 10:52am
I concur that Steven Koonin’s book is excellent. But Koonin does believe that climate change is occurring and that part of this change (although not all of it) is caused by humans. Nevertheless, Koonin very wisely pushes back against today’s climate hysteria. The uncertainties, in Koonin’s view, are so great that we can make no sure predictions about the future course of climate change, about the consequences of this change on the natural and economic environments, or about the consequences of policies meant to arrest such change.
Todd Kreider
Oct 1 2022 at 7:21pm
Koonin’s book is great, but it only mentions the potential of far more advanced technology in all areas of energy and carbon sequestering by the 2040s and the unrecognizable 2080s.
T Boyle
Sep 28 2022 at 1:47pm
Careful: the ozone hole was a real thing, and we aren’t worried about it anymore because the world took coordinated action to phase out CFCs (which were used as a refrigerant, primarily). It took a lot less effort than phasing out GHG emissions, but it was the same basic model – and it worked.
Mactoul
Sep 29 2022 at 12:12am
Ozone hole still exists. Against the peak of 28 million sq km in 2000, it was 25 million sq km in 2015 and 21 million sq km in 2021.
Ozone hole is probably a natural phenomenon and its extent may not have a lot to do with human actions, either to create it or to limit it.
Mark Bahner
Sep 29 2022 at 8:23pm
In 1979, the size of the “ozone hole” was small, and the concentration of ozone inside the “hole” (measured in Dobson units) was high.
The size of the hole and the decline in the ozone concentration within the hole both hit their worst levels in approximately the 2000-2010 time frame:
Ozone “hole” size and average ozone concentration
I’m not aware of anyone who has proposed a convincing case for natural factors causing this evolution…but a chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions cause is quite convincing. That’s why the scientists who first proposed that CFCs could harm the ozone layer earned a Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1995.
Jose Pablo
Sep 30 2022 at 12:16am
“The size of the hole and the decline in the ozone concentration within the hole both hit their worst levels in approximately the 2000-2010 time frame:”
The size of the hole and the amount of ozone within the hole (in DU) has remained the same since for the last 30 years (within the average +- 1 standard deviation, which is around 10% of the average for both the size and the concentration for the whole period)
“I’m not aware of anyone who has proposed a convincing case for natural factors causing this evolution…”
Absent of evidence is not evidence of absent. We have been fooled by that mistake time and again.
Now, maybe the cost of banning the CFCs was low enough to follow a “just in case” approach to the ozone layer “problem”. Climate change is a completely different animal in this regard.
Craig
Sep 28 2022 at 2:19pm
There’s a whole litany of litmus test questions which are asked to make sure that your Groupthink is on, what Tom Woods calls, the 3 x 5 index card of allowable opinion.
David Henderson
Sep 28 2022 at 2:58pm
Pierre,
You might want to check the post I did on this a few days ago. Malpass did NOT deny climate change. The reporter lied.
Pierre Lemieux
Sep 28 2022 at 8:21pm
Thanks for the precision, David, and sorry for missing your interesting post. Indeed, Malpass did not really sleep with the devil. On my first link above, the one to the NYT, you can see a video of the actual exchange. You are right that that the limited question he was answering is whether
As I quoted it above, the NYT was too far off by saying, without quotes, that Mapass finally answered the question of
—if climate change is defined by “dangerously warming the planet.” I agree with you that this is not necessarily true.
Axios is still a bit more impressionistic. If you add to the belief that “climate change is dangerously warning the planet” the belief ” the burning of oil, gas and coal is driving climate change,” then it follows that “climate change is caused by humans.”
Hence the importance of speaking precisely!
David Henderson
Sep 30 2022 at 12:23pm
You’re welcome, Pierre.
Mactoul
Sep 28 2022 at 9:54pm
Though I readily believe that third world countries are poorer for their socialistic economic policies, the proposition that absent such interventions, they would be as rich as Hong Kong, this proposition is as dogmatic as anything in Marx.
Upon what you base this optimistic belief? And given Hongkong is more laissez faire than US, why is Hongkong per capita GDP only 92 percent of US? Shouldn’t it vastly exceed US’?
Jose Pablo
Sep 29 2022 at 12:56pm
It seems to be a pretty widespread, well documented consensus …
http://whynationsfail.com/
… consensus absent (to say the least) on “anytingh in Marx” (economics)
Jose Pablo
Sep 29 2022 at 12:59pm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/entertainment/books/book-review-why-nations-fail-by-daron-acemoglu-and-james-a-robinson/2012/04/20/gIQAcHs8VT_story.html
Mactoul
Sep 30 2022 at 4:32am
Proposition that market freedom conduces to economic growth is different than the proposition that market freedom is the only determinant of national prosperity.
I see no defense of the idea that only given market freedom, all countries would be as rich as Hongkong.
Pierre Lemieux
Sep 29 2022 at 1:03pm
Mactoul: Don’t forget ceteris paribus. There are 7.3 million people in Hong Kong; 330 million in the US. Consider the two countries’ size (transportation costs) and mainly history. Many people would mention natural resources. I’ll have a short post on this topic but, in the meantime, the required reading is the short article by Milton Friedman, “The Honk Kong Experiment.” There is some supporting video evidence at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqh0zXSd4vc (despite the bad video quality), but it’t a good idea to read the article first.
Mactoul
Sep 30 2022 at 2:37am
I don’t have problem with the Hongkong experiment but you are over-generalizing it.
Do you really believe that India or Afghanistan or Niger would be as rich as Hongkong if their governments had followed laissez faire economics. Where is the least support for this belief?
Craig
Sep 30 2022 at 10:25am
Hard to tell, right? Still I’d suggest there are many examples of situations where we can look at situations that are close to comparing apples to apples than one society that is much, much different from another. For instance one great historical example was East Germany/West Germany. Another great example is Chile v Argentina and/or Brazil, right? I mean, for sure, Chile is not particularly wealthy when compared to the US, but when compared to its neighbors it has done relatively well. Closer to home, a glaring one would be the Bahamas v Cuba.
In the example noted, a comparison is being made between Hong Kong and the US. I’d suggest a better comparison can be Hong Kong v the rest of China or perhaps Taiwan v the rest of China. And the rest of China got the message too and now that they have, not to mistake China with utopia of course, but the PRC has absolutely exploded with growth that is nothing short of breath taking actually.
Pierre Lemieux
Sep 30 2022 at 11:54am
Craig: Add North Korea and South Korea to your list. South Korea was not a laissez-faire paradise, but but it was closer to this than to the North Korean dystopia.
I think Chinese industrial-revolution-style growth is close to an end because of the doubts I expressed (following Ronald Coase). The Chinese state obviously took a wrong turn after the initial liberalization.
David Seltzer
Sep 29 2022 at 3:32pm
Pierre: Good stuff as always. Per Arron W, “I’ve done a PhD and postdoc doing scientific research related to climate change, and the evidence is pretty clear that climate change (i.e., global warming) is happening and caused by humans.” I respect his bona fides. What portion of climate change is caused by humans, such as CO2, methane or nitrous oxide versus natural causes such as a change in the earth’s orbit, rotation, solar activity and volcanos? If human causes are substantial or predominant, it makes economic and environmental sense for innovators to supply solutions. Coal fired plants have internalized the cost of pollution with addition of coal scrubbers.
Craig
Sep 30 2022 at 10:32am
Having lived in North Jersey I have seen evidence of long term climate change ranging from extensive glaciation coming as far south as North Jersey and also fossilized ferns suggesting a much more tropical climate.
David Seltzer
Sep 30 2022 at 11:56am
Craig, I too have observed this phenomenon having lived in NY and NJ. Again, what percentage do we attribute to human activity?
Todd Kreider
Oct 1 2022 at 7:18pm
Koonin thinks around 50% of the rising temperature over the past several decades has been human caused. There is a large, detailed survey of climate scientists that asks around 80 questions.
Q: “What fraction of global warming since the mid 20th century can be attributed to human induced increases greenhouse gases? 1,860 responded:
More than 100%… 17% (albedo effect)
76% to 100%……….32%
51% to 75%………..17%
26% to 50%………….5%
0% to 25%………….7%
Unknown……….9%
I don’t know……8%
Other……………. 3%
I’ll try to find the survey name since a link I have is broken,
Thomas Strenge
Sep 29 2022 at 8:01pm
There seem to be conversations that certain parties want Al Gore to run the World Bank in order to have one more lever pushing the Green New Deal. Maybe the goal is just to get Malpass out the door?
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