The shooting that took place in Toronto (Canada) on Sunday was, in one way, similar to the aftermath of the terrorist attack in Paris on January 7, 2015. In the latter case, people took smartphone videos of fleeing terrorists shooting at policemen and killing an unarmed one. In Toronto, there were several powerless witnesses, and at least one person, apparently from an apartment overlooking the scene, videoed the killer as he was firing from the sidewalk below. In both cases, if a video taker had had a pistol instead of smartphone, he could have engaged the killer, at least slowing him down, and saved lives or prevented serious bodily injuries.
The fact that the Toronto killer was apparently just a madman, and a loser as I called his kind in a previous post (“Mass Killings and the Economic Approach to Human Behavior”), is tragic but does not change the situation as far as saving lives is concerned.
Many people believe it is impossible that armed citizens could end or mitigate a mass shooting. In places like Toronto or Paris, they are right in the sense that carrying guns is a crime for ordinary citizens, so it is unlikely that one could legally and seriously challenge a killer in action. In Canada, if you have been permitted to own a handgun, it can only be carried in a locked case to an approved shooting club; it must otherwise be kept in your home, where it must be locked separate from ammunition, to make sure you don’t use it in self-defense—which would be a crime anyway. It’s even worse in the United Kingdom.
Some states in America are the only places in the civilized world where ordinary individuals are allowed to own convenient handguns, carry them, and use them in self-defense. But here is the question: Does it ever happen that they use them to stop mass killings?
The answer is yes, and is documented in a FBI report, Active Shooter Incidents in the United States in 2016 and 2017 (April 2018). The report documents 50 active shooter incidents over these two years. Shooter incidents are defined as “one or more individuals actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a populated area.” The FBI concludes its analysis by noting:
Armed and unarmed citizens engaged the shooter in 10 incidents. They safely and successfully ended the shootings in eight of those incidents. Their selfless actions likely saved many lives.
Not surprisingly, in 6 of these 10 cases, the intervening citizen was legally armed. Only exceptional circumstances or exceptional courage lead an unarmed individual to successfully confront an armed killer in action. Perhaps one has to be familiar with guns to attempt this. The FBI writes:
In four incidents, citizens possessing valid firearms permits successfully stopped the shooter. In two [of those] incidents, citizens exchanged fire with the shooter. In two incidents, the citizens held the shooter at gunpoint until law enforcement arrived.
In another incident, “a citizen possessing a valid firearms permit was wounded before he could fire at the shooter.” In the last of the six incidents, the shooter was met with gunfire but fled to continue his rampage at another location.
Thus, an armed citizen put an end to a mass shooting in four cases or 8% of the shootings. Economist John Lott argues that the FBI missed some of the shootings, and that the real percentage over the past few years is around 15%. In any event, a significant percentage of mass shootings were stopped by armed citizens and many lives were presumably saved.
In many states, individuals without a felony record can now lawfully carry concealed pistols without a license–so-called “constitutional carry.” This certainly adds to the disincentive effect that concealed carry has on mass murders.
The Sunday shooting and the other recent ones in Toronto occurred after three decades of increasingly severe gun controls in Canada, as you can check in my article “Disarming Canadians,” a review of a recent book by Canadian historian R. Blake Brown. It is farcical to hear Toronto’s mayor John Tory, a conservative politician, suggesting“tougher gun laws” in the wake of the tragic Sunday events, and pontificating:
There are far too many people carrying around guns in our city and our region who should not have them.
He asked:
Why does anyone in this city need to have a gun at all?
He did not mean that cops should not be armed. They have been more and more heavily armed as ordinary citizens were gradually disarmed. He did not mean that the cops who protect him do not need guns. He meant that ordinary citizens should be totally disarmed, hoping that thugs will also disarm, which would (inexplicably?) leave only the cops armed.
It is true that the freedom to have guns means that more guns will be available, including for criminals, if only because lower black market prices. Even if one assumes that the result will be a higher net murder count (which does not appear to be true), it is a strange ethics that forbids to individuals the means to defend themselves in order to wishfully prevent criminals from harming them.
In the 20th and 21st century, the right of ordinary individuals to own efficient guns is very much part of American exceptionalism. When you think about it, it is as banal as it is incomprehensible to the rest of the world that ordinary individuals have the right to own, and in most states to carry, guns nearly as efficient as those carried by their public servants.
READER COMMENTS
Mark Bahner
Jul 24 2018 at 12:23pm
I haven’t thought much about this, but what’s really needed is some sort of long-range non-lethal device to stop shooters from shooting.
john hare
Jul 24 2018 at 3:38pm
Fear of being shot fulfills your requirements for stopping many shooters. Not the citizen actually shooting back, but the knowledge that a citizen might shoot back is effective in many cases. From personal experience.
Mark Bahner
Jul 24 2018 at 7:38pm
I was thinking more about people who were already shooting. One thing that seems to me makes guns in schools–as a defensive weapon against potential *other* guns in schools–is that they’re lethal.
I went to Va Tech. In fact, I spent most of my undergraduate time in East Ambler Johnston, and virtually all of my graduate time in Norris Hall, where there was so much senseless loss of life.
Even though Va Tech is a university, rather than a high school or grade school, it doesn’t seem to me that having other guns available to shoot people who happen to be shooting guns. But drones or remove vehicles firing long-range tasers, tranquilizer darts, tear gas, or something non-lethal might be very good.
As an engineer, it really boggles my mind that, as far as I know, there are virtually no prolonged engineering investigations in the U.S. into non-lethal methods to stop mass shooters virtually as soon as they start firing. The federal government spends an awful lot of money on silly things. Investigation into non-lethal methods to stop mass shooters seems worth investigating.
john hare
Jul 24 2018 at 8:27pm
To me, once the shooting start there have already been multiple fails. It’s been a few years, but I remember emptying a 10 round in a couple of seconds. That’s not a lot of time to react. With some engineering background myself, as well as being an incorrigible inventor, I could add to the non lethal list you started.
The problem in my mind is the logistics. You could easily see how to plumb a whole school for tear gas. Or have drones on ready alert. At what point do you stop? How many billions do you spend on reducing the body count per episode? How many episodes are going to simply shift to softer targets that will exist short of 100%x7x24 surveillance?
I am concerned that another TSA would develop with permanent intrusion and low accountability. And limited success as nut job shooter doesn’t equal stupid.
IVV
Jul 24 2018 at 3:55pm
I don’t think it’s the existence of armed citizens, and by extension, handguns, that results in the higher frequency of mass shootings in the United States compared to other developed nations.
I think the cultural norm of identifying fellow neighbors as enemies, and the willingness and readiness to fight back against one’s enemies, that result in both greater level of support for gun use, and a lower barrier to acceptability of deciding to commit a mass shooting. In the end, it’s not a mental health problem; it’s that becoming a mass shooter is, culturally, not crazy enough of a decision to make.
ZC
Jul 24 2018 at 6:50pm
John Tory and his politician friends should just make murder illegal, problem solved.
Until the mayor and his cronies can 100% guarantee that citizens of his city won’t face random violence from others in the city (they can’t now, and won’t be able to, ever), it would seem reasonable that citizens should have the right to have reasonable means by which to defend themselves.
Matthias Goergens
Jul 24 2018 at 10:31pm
The UK is doing pretty alright with a mostly non-fire-armed police force.
(And recent incidents involved cars more than firearms.)
Frank Clarke
Jul 27 2018 at 8:32pm
Oh, I don’t know about that. According to the last statistics I’ve seen, London is now statistically more dangerous than New York City. At least it’s not Baltimore…
Alex
Jul 25 2018 at 12:59am
“In any event, a significant percentage of mass shootings were stopped by armed citizens and many lives were presumably saved”
But how do you count the shootings that don’t take place thanks to gun restrictions?
john hare
Jul 25 2018 at 4:59am
The same way it’s hard to count the shootings that don’t take place because people Might shoot back. I live in an area where taking my weapons away would put me at risk and it affects my viewpoint.
This is a far more complex subject than most gun advocates/anti gun advocates portray. There is deterrent in difficulty of obtaining guns, and also deterrent in knowing that these are not sheep. It shouldn’t be a binary discussion.
Alex
Jul 25 2018 at 8:12pm
John,
I agree with what you say, the need of a gun for personal protection is not the same everywhere. But the argument of the article was very fallacious, you cannot make the case of all the shootings that were stopped by armed bystanders without acknowledging that easy access to guns may lead to more shootings in the first place. This possibility is very obvious and must be at least considered.
JdL
Jul 25 2018 at 7:15am
Excellent article; thanks! Slight typo noted: “…the right or ordinary individuals …”
Amy Willis
Jul 25 2018 at 9:15am
Thanks, JdL… We’ve corrected it.
Pierre Lemieux
Jul 28 2018 at 12:53am
Thanks, Amy!
RJC
Jul 25 2018 at 2:50pm
You didn’t consider suicides using guns or accidents resulting from gun owenership.
Frank Clarke
Jul 25 2018 at 3:34pm
Even though most Canadians are well-versed in the trivia of ‘the American system’, indulge me while I explain it for those who are not.
Our founding document asserts that all men are endowed by their creator with an unalienable right to life (among others). It is a natural corollary to this that we have a right to defend that life, and (further) the means of that defense.
All of that is predicated on the (generally valid) assumption that the bulk of the people you will meet over the course of your life are good people. Few, possibly ‘very few’, will be bad people of the sort who would do serious damage to you given the chance. 100-to-1 is about the minimum estimate I would consider realistic, and I believe that it’s much closer to 500-to-1.
If either of those is true, what should your position be on the topic ‘arms for everyone’? The only position that makes sense is ‘Yes, I want my neighbor armed’, because it is far more likely your neighbor will come to your aid than slay you with her new Glock. As has been pointed out above and proved by many learned studies south of your border, coming to someone’s aid doesn’t have to involve loud noises. Most often the mere presence of defensive weapons is adequate to stop any threat with no shots fired.
Gun control as is practiced in many cities on both sides of the border acts only to disarm those who aren’t, in any meaningful sense of the word, a threat, while empowering those who are.
Adam
Jul 26 2018 at 1:17pm
The number of cases where a private citizen could intervene with a gun is a minor faction of the 50 incidents. 24 cases were in schools, government buildings and health care facilities–usually so-called “gun-free zones” where carry is prohibited. Another 17 were in commercial facilities and these often restrict carry by private citizens. The number of cases where private carry could have an effect? A maximum of 26 (=50-24) and maybe as small as 9 incidents (50-24-17)!
If a legally armed citizen stopped the shooter in 6 cases out of 9 potentially legal carry situations, that makes legal carry pretty important in protecting innocent life!
Pierre Lemieux
Jul 28 2018 at 12:47am
Good point, Adam!
Robert
Jul 26 2018 at 4:09pm
The argument of this post doesn’t seem terribly coherent.
As others above have pointed out if your’re going to make lives saved the basis of your argument for more liberal gun ownership laws, you have to count the expected number of extra murders, suicides, and accidental deaths, not just the number of lives saved. I don’t know what the statistics are, but I’d be very surprised if it turned out that more liberal guns laws on net saved lives. If anyone has statistics on this I’d be interested to see them.
But then Pierre says this:
“Even if one assumes that the result will be a higher net murder count (which does not appear to be true), it is a strange ethics that forbids to individuals the means to defend themselves in order to wishfully prevent criminals from harming them.”
So what argument is he making? Is it a statistical argument, or something else – perhaps a natural rights argument?
john hare
Jul 27 2018 at 4:39am
I want the right to defend myself. That does not mean that I think I can John Wayne an active shooter situation in public. I have been in situations where the knowledge that I could defend myself defused a situation.
No shots or weapons exposed, threats or even mention of weapons. Just the knowledge that this was not a helpless victim. I’m not even saying that I would have prevailed if situations went active. It’s that the situations never went active.
Frank Clarke
Jul 27 2018 at 8:27pm
In the 90s during the Clinton Presidency, a team of researchers from Florida State University set out to discover how dangerous it was for ordinary people to be allowed firearms. Kleck and Kurtz did a rough survey via telephone to ascertain how rarely firearms were used for good. What they found shocked them: their results hinted that there might be as many as 2.5 million defensive gun uses (DGUs) each year. This number absolutely dwarfs the criminal uses of guns. Because of that, the survey was widely discounted as flawed. To correct it, the US Department of Justice commissioned its own counter-survey. Their conclusion was that DGUs probably did not exceed 800,000 per year. This number still dwarfs criminal usage. Later, David Hemmenway of Harvard repeated the DOJ survey, this time excluding every incident that could not be proven to have saved a life, and got the number down to 80,000 DGUs. Since only about 7,000 people die from criminal gun use in the US each year, even this number was unsatisfactory to the anti-gun community, but there it is.
Mikk Salu
Jul 27 2018 at 5:57am
I live in Estonia and ordinary individuals are allowed to own, carry and use handguns in self-defence. So no, not just some states in America.
Pierre Lemieux
Jul 28 2018 at 12:52am
Mikk: Interesting point. I would have thought that the numerous, and increasingly severe, EU directives would prevent this or making it very difficult. Can you elaborate?
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