Last year, Matt Yglesias did a post suggesting that all news is bad news. Allowing for hyperbole, I think that’s roughly true. But I recall a time when it was not true, when much of the news was good. To be fair, Yglesias is mostly considering a certain type of popular headline news, which has always been dominated by bad events. There have always been many more stories of houses that burned down than houses that did not burn down. But today, even the more intellectual news sources are dominated by bad news. That was not true in the 1980s and 1990s.
In the last part of the 20th century, I greatly enjoyed reading news outlets such as The Economist, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and the Far Eastern Economic Review. These news sources focused on public policy issues, especially economic and political issues.
Those decades were dominated by good news, as one country after another abandoned authoritarianism and moved toward democracy. Almost every developed country did major tax reform. Many developed countries privatized state-owned enterprises and deregulated prices and production. Free trade agreements were announced. Immigration was liberalized. There was one economic reform after another. Inflation was brought down. Democracy was on the march in Latin America, Eastern Europe and elsewhere.
Now I pick up these news outlets with weary apprehension. I know there is unlikely to be a single piece of good news, just endless stories about the rise of nationalism, authoritarianism, militarism, statism, xenophobia, etc. One counterproductive economic policy after another. The world still progresses in terms of technology, with nifty inventions like the iPhone. But on political and economic issues it seems like the news is unrelentingly bad.
In the rare cases where I see a positive headline, even the good news turns out to be bad.
Even economics is going rapidly downhill. I consider myself a late 20th century economist, and have little in common with today’s economists.
Back in the 1960s, I used to watch Star Trek in TV. The future looked bright. I never imagined the 21st century would be a dark irrational place, regressing from the reform era of the 1980s and 1990s.
Younger people might live long enough to see the cycle swing back to good news. (It happened after 1914-45.) I don’t expect to live that long.
Or am I just getting old and grouchy? Please tell me if I’m missing all the wonderful policy news.
PS. Back before the Great Recession, when it was still possible to be optimistic about the world, I did a long paper on neoliberalism. I discussed three model countries: Denmark, Switzerland and Singapore. They differed in numerous ways, but all had one thing in common—they are number one in the world in one important category (values, politics, and technocratic policy, respectively). Tim Peach sent me to a Bloomberg article that shows that 15 years later these three have emerged as the world’s three most competitive economies. Hmmm, maybe I was on to something. If the world descends to a new dark age, perhaps these three will be the countries that hold out the longest.
READER COMMENTS
Capt. J Parker
Jun 16 2022 at 5:03pm
Good News:
The Fed at least admits that it is the one on the hook for inflation. Big change from 1972.
Gas prices are spiking but no one is considering price controls (and gas lines) as a solution. Big change from 1974.
The “he who most not be named” tax cuts on corporate profits have not been repealed.
Space exploration is being privatized despite whining from the statists and NASA as a jobs program crowd.
Global Poverty continues to decline.
Cancer deaths continue to decline.
2021 had the lowest fatality rate for skydiving on record
Scott Sumner
Jun 17 2022 at 12:09pm
I agree that the world is getting richer, but that’s not what I mean by policy news. Europe got richer between 1910 and 1950—but it was a period full of bad news.
TGGP
Jun 17 2022 at 4:00pm
Tyler Cowen would say that period was full of good news in terms of TFP, but you have excluded that as being the normal course of things (though Cowen’s point was that TFP growth has slowed more recently).
Scott Sumner
Jun 18 2022 at 12:24am
Again, I am talking about political and economic policy news, not GDP.
Jim Glass
Jun 17 2022 at 9:54pm
Well, from 1910 through 1913, and then 1946 to 1950.
The 33 years in the middle were pretty brutal.
MIchael Sandifer
Jun 16 2022 at 6:52pm
I wish I could say my view was more positive, but much of the world seems to be increasingly rejecting the enlightment, and is trending toward fascism.
On a positive note, a discussion on Twitter about my claim that the S&P 500 is a good proxy for the “price” of the US economy broke out today.
D.O.
Jun 17 2022 at 5:13am
Progress, however you define it, is never linear, but always back-and-forth. Neoliberalism’s progress wasn’t completely repudiated in 2010s (Russia is a possible exception, but even there market sector remains and is unlikely to be replaced completely by Gosplan), just like neoliberalism hasn’t reversed previous socialist policies completely. Let’s hope that the era of great power total wars is over for good. We can survive the rest.
Michael Rulle
Jun 17 2022 at 8:27am
I agree with your perception of what we read. But I am not at all sure how much of this is mere narrative——not necessarily of the political kind—-although it does seem hard to separate politics from narrative——but it’s a frame of reference that “leads”. In other words, I cannot tell what is real. I do not think this is purposeful in a conspiratorial sense——-but I am unsure what is real.
When certain stories interest me, I will try to determine if their premises are true. It takes a lot of time. Unfortunately I default to ignoring may stories. If the headline appears to be “leading me”—-I just move on.
I rather read books on interesting topics.
Spencer Bradley Hall
Jun 17 2022 at 10:16am
Robert Prechter of the Elliott Wave Theorist says “that social mood drives financial, macroeconomic and political behavior (socionomics). Since we’ve hit the “grand super cycle” peak, it’s going to get even uglier from here on.
Matthias
Jun 19 2022 at 9:39am
Well, I’m glad that Elliott Wave theory is nonsense. Otherwise you’d have me worried.
Capt. J Parker
Jun 17 2022 at 10:43am
Good News:
The Fed at least admits that it is the one on the hook for inflation. Big change from 1972.
Gas prices are spiking but no one is considering price controls (and gas lines) as a solution. Big change from 1974.
The “he who most not be named” tax cuts on corporate profits have not been repealed.
Space exploration is being privatized despite whining from the statists and NASA as a jobs program crowd.
Global Poverty continues to decline.
Thomas Lee Hutcheson
Jun 17 2022 at 11:31am
This does overlook lots of positive trends and events. Costs of solar and wind generation of electricity have come down rapidly even thought we still do not have a tax on net emissions of CO2 and methane That is, the optimal tax is probably lower now than we would have thought a decade ago.The Fed has definitely abandoned treating it’s inflation target as a ceiling. I do not expect to see another decade of too low (or too high) inflation.
The development of mRNA vaccines. [And the possibility of using HCT is now conceivable, probably will come.]
Reforms of policing are nearer than ever.I think e are making progress on policies to discourage gun violence.
Messily, we are working towards how to better incorporate transgender people into society.
My main concern is people who are so pessimistic that the think we need to make America great AGAIN!
Scott Sumner
Jun 17 2022 at 7:21pm
“This does overlook lots of positive trends and events. Costs of solar and wind generation of electricity have come down rapidly even thought we still do not have a tax on net emissions of CO2 and methane”
Actually, I addressed technological change, but my focus was policy.
“I do not expect to see another decade of too low (or too high) inflation.”
I expect inflation to be too high during the 2020s.
Jose Pablo
Jun 17 2022 at 11:18pm
“people who are so pessimistic that the think we need to make America great AGAIN!”
This is a permanent feature of US politics: Reagan used it in 1980 and Clinton in 1992.
Same old, same old.
Jim Glass
Jun 17 2022 at 10:14pm
Since today is an overlooked anniversary, here’s a reminder of what bad news can really look like:
“On this day in 1940, the Soviet Union expressed its warmest congratulations to Nazi Germany for their successful invasion of France…”
Jose Pablo
Jun 18 2022 at 11:33pm
I guess in 3 months time another aniversary (09/17/1939) will be equaly overlooked: Russia invading a European country without a formal declaration of war.
But we are definitely better now: back then Russia was not invading to denazify Poland.
Anders
Jun 18 2022 at 5:10pm
Sweden is not so much liberal as a socialist country open to employing markets and entrepreneurship when it suits their purposes. A government think tank on the far left proposed that removing employment protection while extending and funding unemployment protection and investing in reskilling would increase funds available as innovation was easier. All regulations have to be repassed every four years, giving them ample channce to remove the fluff based on cost estimates that they have to defend published for all to see. So the commitment to socialism has not waned, we have just decided to make you capitalists do the hard work. You will make money yes, but do not worry, we will take 75% of that as well. We have whipped you into shape, few people expect to be rich in the us sense…. A house in the suburbs, a mercedes, and maybe a small boat in a harbour outside of town and a suit with a foreign label on it is as much status as people aspire to. Except if you benefit from renewables subsidies, of course.
Larry
Jun 21 2022 at 2:24pm
Policy:
– “defund the police” is dead
– Manchin
– FAIT is better than the old way, even if only semi-coherent
Although, I must say that while the non-political world continues to accelerate, the political world moves e Ed more slowly. That impedance mismatch is not sustainable. Something’s gotta give.
vince
Jul 5 2022 at 2:40pm
“In the last part of the 20th century … Those decades were dominated by good news, as one country after another abandoned authoritarianism and moved toward democracy. ”
Hmmmm. Is this where expansion of democracy has taken us?
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