The Economist magazine coined the term “Dutch disease” back in 1977:
The Economist coined the term in 1977 to describe the woes of the Dutch economy. Large gas reserves had been discovered in 1959. Dutch exports soared. But, we noticed, there was a contrast between “external health and internal ailments”. From 1970 to 1977 unemployment increased from 1.1% to 5.1%. Corporate investment was tumbling. We explained the puzzle by pointing to the high value of the guilder, then the Dutch currency. Gas exports had led to an influx of foreign currency, which increased demand for the guilder and thus made it stronger. That made other parts of the economy less competitive in international markets. That was not the only problem. Gas extraction was (and is) a relatively capital-intensive business, which generated few jobs. And in an attempt to stop the guilder from appreciating too fast, the Dutch kept interest rates low. That prompted investment to rush out of the country, crimping future economic potential.
(This is from a 2014 article discussing whether Russia suffers from the Dutch disease.)
That description doesn’t really give us very much to go on. For instance, the following graph in a paper by Olivier Blanchard shows that unemployment soared throughout Western Europe during the 1970s:
In that case, why should we conclude that the Netherland’s employment problems during the 1970s had anything to do with a discovery of natural gas reserves? Furthermore, the most effective way to fix inadequate employment is with sound monetary policy and supply-side reforms to make labor markets more flexible.
It’s also odd to name an economic disease after one of the most successful countries in global economic history. This ranking shows the Netherlands to be number 15 on a global ranking of GDP per capita (PPP), but most of the richer countries are small oil exporters or even smaller tax havens. It’s actually the second richest country in the world with a population of more than 10 million, trailing only the USA.
You might argue that while the Netherlands is rich, perhaps the gas discoveries hurt their non-energy exports. But the Netherlands is also a phenomenally successful exporter of all sorts of products:
Being #4 in a global list of exporters is particularly impressive when you consider than the other countries in the top five all have vastly larger populations. Other developed countries with natural resource bonanzas—such as Australia and Norway—also seem to have done well in recent decades. So what’s the problem?
Here are two possibilities:
1. Creative destruction: An energy boom causes the currency to appreciate. This moves resources from manufacturing to energy and services. Manufacturing jobs are somehow special, and hence this sort of economic restructuring is harmful.
2. Corruption: And energy boom leads to corruption, as elites compete for economic “rents”.
If the first concern is a genuine problem (and I’m skeptical) the resource producer can prevent excessive currency appreciation by boosting national saving, as Norway has done with its sovereign wealth fund.
A recent article in The Economist discussed the second concern:
Uruguay has some structural advantages. Spanish colonialists called it the “land of no profit”, as it had neither precious metals nor cheap indigenous labour. These seeming flaws actually turned out to be strengths, however. A lack of easy rents helped ward off oligarchs. A fairly homogenous population prevented the stark racial inequality of places like Brazil.
I see no evidence that natural resource booms have caused countries such as Norway, the Netherlands or Australia to become more corrupt than otherwise. While you can find examples of major oil producers with a high level of corruption, such as Nigeria, it’s not clear to me that the public sector in those countries would be less corrupt without the oil.
READER COMMENTS
Mark Z
Mar 7 2022 at 5:16pm
Uruguay’s population isn’t just homogeneous: it’s homogeneously European. Whether one attributes it to culture or institutions imported from Europe or lack of oppression or what have you, it’s not surprising that it should be more similar to Europe than to more mestizo or indigenous countries (and not just economically; Uruguay also became more secular and culturally liberal much earlier than its neighbors, like Europe did). But it’s still notably much poorer than Spain and Italy, where most Uruguayans were from. And it doesn’t seem oil-poor middle eastern or African countries are less corrupt than oil-rich ones. We shouldn’t compare corrupt-resource rich countries to other rich countries and draw conclusions. If a minority of countries are ‘non-corrupt’, and a minority are resource (especially oil) rich, and the only way a ‘corrupt’ country can get rich is if it happens to be resource rich, then we’d expect to see a lot of corrupt, resource-rich, wealthy countries even absent causality between resources and corruption.
Scott Sumner
Mar 8 2022 at 12:36am
I agree.
Biopolitical
Mar 8 2022 at 2:21am
Isn’t the Netherlands such a large exporter because it is a hub of farm goods produced elsewhere?
Scott Sumner
Mar 8 2022 at 12:19pm
No.
https://tradingeconomics.com/netherlands/exports-by-category
Biopolitical
Mar 9 2022 at 8:31am
Thank you!
Thomas Strenge
Mar 8 2022 at 9:20am
Norway and Netherlands developed sound institutions before the discovery of natural resources. I think that’s why the “oil curse” affects some countries and not others.
Iskander
Mar 8 2022 at 4:42pm
I have always found that most discussions (including that economist quote) don’t fully distinguish between real and nominal exchange rates. Talk of currency (nominal prices) and interest rates obscures matters when its the relative price of non-tradable goods (a real price) that drives the key mechanism of dutch disease.
Whatever the degree of corruption, I find it hard to believe that a real exchange appreciation due to an oil boom made manufacturing and agriculture uncompetitive in a country with as low wages as Nigeria. Even if expenditure of the oil rents in the service sector raised wage costs by (say) 20% for potential exporters, local wages would be low relative to those in most other countries. The main issue is the poor productivity of firms and workers such that low wages represent low productivity.
Aside from the Netherlands, a good example of a country receiving income from investments abroad (akin to a natural resource boom) yet, to a degree, maintaining competitiveness is England around 1900. Large amounts of money flowed in from investments in the Americas, Europe and Asia to those living in England, presumably part of which was spent on non-tradable goods and services. Had WW1 not interrupted things at a stretch one can imagine an England where no one produces tradable goods and everyone works as servants for those lucky enough to have investments abroad (which allow for imports of goods rather than having to contemporaneously export).
It is true that England was in relative decline compared with the USA and Germany in this period but it was still able to export manufactured consumer goods including to countries with comparatively cheap non-tradable goods even before imperial preference created protected markets.
Roger Sparks
Mar 9 2022 at 9:52am
I think we make an error when we try to simplify trade issues into currency exchange stories.
IMHO, the basic issue is “How to pay for valuable resources in a foreign currency?”
Consider this situation: One nation has oil for sale and other nations want to buy.
This is a classic exchange of resources story. On a national macro level, expect that oil will be traded for transportable products of all kinds.
(This case should be examined before considering the exchange of oil for instruments of ownership in foreign assets.)
So, how does a nation trade nationally owned oil for transportable products useful to average citizens? This is an ownership/distribution problem that needs to be recognized in stark reality.
As I write, I think of oil and the Middle East. We should also think of wheat, Ukraine, and much more. The ownership/distribution patterns of the recent past seem to be destructing before our eyes.
Mark Brophy
Mar 9 2022 at 12:33pm
If someone in the Netherlands sells something to somebody in Belgium or Germany, it’s considered an export and if someone in Massachusetts sells something to somebody in California or Hawaii, it’s a domestic sale; so, I’m not impressed that the Netherlands exports many goods. I’m impressed that people like their greenhouse tomatoes.
Matthias
Mar 14 2022 at 7:42am
The Dutch tomatoes have gotten really tasty in the last few decades. Much better than the Spanish non-greenhouse ones.
Scott Sumner
Mar 10 2022 at 1:02pm
Mark, You said,
“If someone in the Netherlands sells something to somebody in Belgium or Germany, it’s considered an export”
The same is true of France and Belgium, and they export much less than the Netherlands.
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