There’s been a lot of recent debate about illegal immigration. Caroline Baum points out that President Trump’s opposition goes far beyond “rapists and murderers”:
Designating immigrants as “murderers” and “rapists” flies in the face of data that show that undocumented immigrants are much less likely to commit crimes or be incarcerated than their native-born counterparts. And legal immigrants are even less likely offenders than their illegal counterparts.
Before you insist that Trump is protesting illegal immigration, consider that his administration has tried to clamp down on all forms of legal immigration, starting in week one with a travel ban targeting seven Muslim-majority countries and moving on to the issuance of fewer visas, limits on the number of refugees and asylum-seekers, an end to DACA, or the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, and even an effort to deny immigrant entrepreneurs the opportunity to establish a business in the U.S.
Baum focuses on the role of entrepreneurial immigrants:
It’s no secret — except, perhaps, to the Trump administration — that immigrants tend to be more entrepreneurial than native-born Americans. . . . Immigrants are twice as likely to start a business as native-born Americans, for example. Forty-three percent of the 2017 Fortune 500 companies were founded or co-founded by a first- or second-generation immigrant, according to the Center for American Entrepreneurship.
I’d say it’s not even a secret to the Trump administration. The President seems to have been influenced by Steve Bannon, who has suggested that the highly successful Asian-Americans in Silicon Valley are having a negative effect on America “culture”. (Here I’m tempted to look for connections between Bannon and Harvard University, but I’ll leave that up to my readers.)
Baum points out that President Obama tried to act on this issue, when it became clear that Congress was gridlocked, but that nothing came of his efforts:
Yet the U.S. remains “one of only a few industrialized democracies that does not have a designated visa for foreign-born entrepreneurs” who want to establish a business in the U.S., the CAE’s Dearie said.
Introduced a handful of times in Congress, most recently in September 2017, the Startup Act has never been able to gather critical mass. The act would have opened the door to foreign-born entrepreneurs with advanced degrees in STEM fields (science, technology, engineering, math), a verifiable business plan and private funding source to establish a business and remain in the U.S. as long as the business was creating a specified number of non-family jobs. . . .
As a work-around to congressional stonewalling on a startup visa, President Barack Obama used his pen (executive action) to craft the International Entrepreneur Rule to encourage immigrant entrepreneurship. While not as effective as a legislative solution, the rule would have granted qualified foreign entrepreneurs temporary residence for five years to build a business operation.
Trump put a hold on the rule before it could go into effect in July 2017 and last month moved to rescind it.
When I speak with people on the other side of the immigration debate, they often start with nationalistic arguments. But when pressed on the issue it soon becomes clear this is about more than nationalism. Most of the anti-immigration people I speak with do not regard the Asian culture in Silicon Valley as being inferior to the black culture of Detroit, or the Native America culture of South Dakota, or the Hispanic culture of El Paso. When they speak of “American culture” they have something much more specific in mind than people who live in America. In their view, subcultures that study less hard than this very specific culture are lazy. Subcultures that study harder than this very specific culture are viewed as robotic, lacking in personality.
I have recently been stuck by the passion with which many immigration restrictionists discuss the situation in Germany. Viewed objectively, the recent immigration into Germany seems like a net gain for the world. The gains to the immigrants almost certainly outweigh any possible losses to Germany. The other side will then tell me that I’m missing the point, that I need to think in nationalistic terms, not bloodless cosmopolitan utilitarian terms. In that case, however, why would American nationalists (including President Trump) be so upset about the situation in Germany? After all, neither the local Germans nor the immigrant Syrians are members of our “tribe”. Neither of these groups are Americans. We even fought two wars against Germany.
Unless . . . perhaps this isn’t about nationalism at all. Perhaps this is about some other unspoken issue, which makes many people feel that the Germans of Cologne are “us”, whereas both the blacks of Detroit and the Asians of Silicon Valley are “them”.
READER COMMENTS
Maniel
Jun 27 2018 at 9:15pm
Prof. Sumner,
Anti-immigration Americans have a powerful argument to support their case, namely immigration to the “new world” from the old. The newcomers and their progeny, after being welcomed here beginning in the 17th century, effectively obliterated the indigenous people and their cultures. To this day, descendants of indigenous people live as foreigners in their own land. Does reality not trump good intentions?
AMW
Jun 28 2018 at 12:23am
This is an absurd argument. Immigrants to North America in the 15th and 16th century:
1. Carried communicable diseases that the native population had little to no immunity to.
2. Came from a civilization that was highly technology advanced relative to the native civilizations.
3. Travelled on behalf of powerful governments that aided in their conquest.
None of these factors is at play in modern immigration.
Maniel
Jun 28 2018 at 6:16pm
AMW
Thank you for your reply. I will respond to the issues you raised.
“This is an absurd argument.” I disagree, if for no other reason than, in any given time or place, we are all immigrants. Dismissing my point as absurd is to refuse to address a fundamental challenge each of us faces when we confront any cultural divide.
“Immigrants to North America in the 15th and 16th century:” I continue to believe that serious migration from Europe did not begin until the 17th century. Moreover, that immigration was perpetuated in “Manifest Destiny,” which continued well into the 20th century, with repeated assaults on indigenous people across North America.
“1. Carried communicable diseases that the native population had little to no immunity to.” This essentially categorizes those who came as an invasive species, which is how those who point to the arrival of refugees in Europe see potential immigrants to the USA. From what I learned in grammar school, the native Americans took a less combative approach to the newcomers, at least initially. Having descended from an invasive species, I am now in the fortunate position of accepting or refusing new immigrants. If someone wants to come here to work, learn my language, and build a better life for themselves and their families, I welcome them, not least because I am descended from immigrants.
“2. Came from a civilization that was highly technology [sic] advanced relative to the native civilizations.” Advanced is a relative term. In any event, I can learn from you and you from me because we are both human and have had different experiences, and we can both be better for that exchange. Or, we can choose fear, hatred, and conflict and forego all the benefits that human interaction can offer. I can choose to ignore my heritage and inflict the same distress and suffering on refugees that my invasive ancestors inflicted on native populations.
“3. Travelled [sic] on behalf of powerful governments that aided in their conquest.” The most powerful of these surely was and continues to be, the great white father in Washington.
“None of these factors is at play in modern immigration.” In a literal sense, you are correct, but my original point was that we Americans today have reason to fear, not least because of how our ancestors obliterated native peoples and their cultures. Fear motivates our hysteria today, graphically shown in the dispatch of armed forces to our borders to combat the onslaught of women and children seeking refuge.
“I have been a stranger in a strange land.” [Exodus 2:22]
Hazel Meade
Jun 29 2018 at 10:24am
This is why I keep pointing out that Hispanics are not really so culturally removed from us. You can’t really be wiped out by people who are just like you, or at worst your ethnic-religious cousins.
Hispanics are mostly Catholic – many Americans are already Catholic, and in any case Protestant Christianity in America is the direct offshoot of Roman Catholicism. Hispanics speak Spanish, a Romance Language descended from Latin, like the French And Italian. English is partially derived from French. Governments in Hispanic countries derive their institutional lineage from the Western Roman Empire, just as all Western European nations do.
Most Americans are happy to accept Russian Greek and Ukranian immigrants who are arguably more culturally distant since their roots go back to the Orthodox Church and the Eastern Empire. If those immigrants are culturally similar enough to not be a threat, then so should Hispanic immigrants.
If you are worried about getting wiped out by a different culture, you should be ecstatic that we are getting immigrants who are Christian and come from a Western European heritage, rather than Arab Muslims.
Benjamin Cole
Jun 27 2018 at 9:20pm
Actually, the short story is that anyone who invests $500k into the US can live in rural America (and then eventually anywhere in the US) and if you bring $1 million in you can live anywhere in the US. It’s called the EB-5.
“Invest $500,000 U.S. in an EB-5 government-approved regional center (generally, rural area) for a period of about five years. In around 18 months, you obtain conditional green cards that entitle you and your immediate family to enter the U.S. You can live, work and study anywhere in the country and there are no education, age or English language requirements.”
It’s generally $1 mil for an EB-5 if you want to, say, buy property in L.A., SF Seattle etc.
If you have money, living in the US is a snap.
It is easy to stand atop the pinnacles of righteousness when discussing immigration.
I am an immigrant myself. I cannot own property in the land in which I live. I understand this. Who wants to be a second-class citizen in their homeland? I do not think the Thais are racist. If so, they sure hide it well.
Sovereign nations have the right to control borders, and preserve culture, social fabric, standards of living.
The US probably least of all, as it is (famously) a nation founded by aggressors, imperialists and colonizers, but nevertheless the fact remains.
Would Japan be Japan anymore if it had admitted immigrants up to 5% of population every year since 1980? (Some people advocate a 5% limit for the US).
If Japan had followed the 5% rule, the “Japanese” nation would be 2/3rds immigrant today (actually more, and possibly a lot more depending on immigrant birth rates, but the math would take some time).
Egads, does anyone think this is a reasonable option for the people of Japan?
So, if not Japan, why any nation, or even the US?
Robert EV
Jun 28 2018 at 12:28am
Right, don’t import a ruling class (this is a lesson we should have learned from the various European monarchies hundreds of years ago [am I the only person still motivated by opposition to monarchy and aristocracy?]).
0.5% of current citizen population of legal immigrants per year would still be 500 thousand more legal immigrants per year than is currently happening in the US (we’re currently around 0.32% – 1 million), and would result in fewer than ~30% of the future US population being first generation immigrants.
Mark Brady
Jun 29 2018 at 4:26pm
“I am an immigrant myself. I cannot own property in the land in which I live. I understand this. Who wants to be a second-class citizen in their homeland?”
Why as an immigrant can you not own property in the land in which you live? Is this a reference to your legal status or the price of land? Maybe I’m missing something. Please clarify.
Thomas Sewell
Jun 29 2018 at 7:31pm
Not the OP, but in many countries, foreigners aren’t allowed to purchase land. Thailand, where he lives, is presumably one of those countries. Mexico (along with a whole host of much more restrictive immigration policies than the U.S.) is another, although you can somewhat get around the law there by using corporations to hold land.
Mark Brady
Jun 29 2018 at 10:23pm
Thank you, Thomas Sewell, for the clarification. I had assumed that Benjamin Cole lived in the U.S.
Benjamin Cole
Jun 27 2018 at 11:52pm
Add on: As anyone with some math background knows, I actually underestimated the percent of Japan’s population that would be immigrant, should the island’s admit 5% a year in new immigrants in relation to the resident population.
If we hold the Japanese population constant, and if we assume the immigrant population doesn’t die off, then we get native, ethnic Japanese at 14% of island population after 40 years.
Weir
Jun 28 2018 at 5:58am
The 19th-century poet Wilfred Scawen Blunt was specifically opposed to English industrialism and cookery. Nothing unusual about that. More interestingly, he was opposed on principle to any single national culture, industrial or otherwise, crowding out the diversity of different cultures:
“The world would be a poor misshapen deformity were it planted from pole to pole with a single crop of wheat; and how valueless will it have become, according to any canon of beauty, when the Anglo-Saxon rule of order and law shall have overspread both hemispheres–which may God forbid–and established over them its debased industrialism, its crude cookery and its flavourless religious creed.”
Blunt, of course, was no utilitarian, so if he had lived to see the modern airport, or the modern shopping mall, he wouldn’t have appreciated the advantages of uniformity and predictability and gleaming fluoro-lit efficiency. He thought that there should be different crops, and not simply wheat.
Hazel Meade
Jun 28 2018 at 10:01am
Trump has also pushed back on H1-B visas, optional practical training for F-1 students (often used as the intro to a job which will then be continued on an H1-B), and has demanded reductions in the number of legal immigrant visas as a condition for not vetoing bills that would legalize the status of DACA protected Americans.
(I call them Americans because people who grew up here actually are Americans in every meaningful way – they are Americans who are offcially denied the right to work or vote).
Scott Sumner
Jun 28 2018 at 1:08pm
Ben, You said:
“Actually, the short story is that anyone who invests $500k into the US can live in rural America (and then eventually anywhere in the US) and if you bring $1 million in you can live anywhere in the US. It’s called the EB-5.”
I don’t believe that’s accurate. The EB-5 program is capped.
Benjamin Cole
Jun 29 2018 at 12:22am
At latest read (and, unfortunately, the Trumpsters are looking at this one) unless you are from India, the caps are never met. Caps are set by nation, and more than 90% of applicants from all nations are approved, except India. Indeed, the number if Indian applicants under this program reaches it cap, and only 60% are so are approved,
So, unless you are from India, you can buy your way into the US. I do not think this a bad idea, entirely. Another idea is anyone who serves 10 years in the military is discharged, no benefits, but citizenship granted.
Jacob Egner
Jun 29 2018 at 3:31pm
Scott, after the website revamp, you can do nested replies, where it is visually obvious which comment you are replying to. I like the feature a lot, and I hope that once you start using the feature, you’ll like it too.
Scott Sumner
Jun 28 2018 at 1:12pm
Ben, You said:
“So, if not Japan, why any nation, or even the US?”
If Japan accepts lots of immigration, then the percentage of Japanese within Japan falls sharply, as you say. If America accepts lots of immigration, the percentage of Americans within America stays at 100%. That’s a big difference.
I think you missed the whole point of the post.
Benjamin Cole
Jun 29 2018 at 2:09am
Well…
I think you may have presented a view of nationality that some, certainly PC-types, would find offensive.
I think the Japanese are Japanese due to their culture. Ergo, a Japanese infant adopted at birth and raised as a Saudi royal, a Wahabbi, would not be Japanese. Race is secondary.
Conversely, Koreans born and raised in Japan for generations, speaking Japanese etc. should certainly be regarded as Japanese, and it is shame they are not (by declining numbers of Japanese).
Americans are Americans due to their culture, which is admittedly diverse (though homogenizing rapidly).
So, if immigrants do not embrace American culture and standards of government, property rights, human rights, freedom of speech etc., then they are not “Americans.” despite living in the States. One does not become American by crossing a border.
If devout Muslims became a powerful voting bloc in the US, and legalized polygamy, but outlawed homosexuality, alcohol and freedom of speech (as the government was a manifestation of a supreme being), then would America be America anymore?
Obviously race has nothing do to with this. Muslims are of any race.
Happily, my guess is most immigrants do embrace American culture (Kardashians and all), or are resigned (due long histories in their native lands) that governments are always corrupt (not an Americanism, but a useful stance).
That said, unless America builds a lot more housing, I do not know where immigrants will live.
The combination of property zoning, NIMBYism, and financial repression has reduced new housing production, to what appears to be a new, long-term lower level.
Mark Z
Jun 28 2018 at 3:09pm
So, you’re insinuating that people who oppose immigration are racists, and your evidence is that they are *less* concerned by problems with the black community than by Asian immigrants or predominately Caucasian Mexican immigrants? If anything, that undermines that notion that it is racism motivating the sentiment.
You also don’t seem to appreciate the reality of the migrant situation in Germany. Migrants in Germany have enormously higher unemployment rates than native Germans, even while largely dependent on government sponsored housing and other entitlements. According to the commissioner for immigration, Aydan Özoğuz (a Turk and a member of the very pro-migrant government) the majority of migrants remain jobless even several years after arriving. There is also evidence that crime is disproportionately committed by migrants, and that a recent rise in violent crime has been overwhelmingly attributable to migrants.
Do you really not see how someone could look at this and be skeptical, without being motivated by white supremacy?
We should not continue to ignore Milton Friedman’s point about the welfare state undermining the value of immigration. Germany and Europe more generally is a warning on this point. Immigration is successful only inasmuch as assimilation and gainful employment are achieved in good time. Otherwise, it’s hard not to sympathize with those who would rather not more people move in to live off the dole and commit a disproportionate share of crimes. Perhaps one’s right to move freely should not automatically outweigh another’s property rights.
Sources:
https://www.ft.com/content/022de0a4-54f4-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f
https://www.ft.com/content/e1c069e0-872f-11e7-bf50-e1c239b45787
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42557828
shecky
Jun 29 2018 at 12:16am
Are you concerned that immigrants are gonna take your welfare? Rest easy: immigrants, legal and illegal, are quite restricted when it comes to receiving welfare assistance. You don’t have to take the word of Aydan Özoğuz on the issue. Sheesh…
And regarding crime: https://www.cato.org/blog/immigration-crime-what-research-says
Bottom line, despite what Trump says, there is no rampant crime, let alone rampant crime as the result of immigration. And immigrants aren’t welfare recipients. So are you now willing to drop your opposition to immigration now? Because if you are not, you’ll get the side eye when claiming no racism involved.
Mark Z
Jun 29 2018 at 8:52pm
Shecky:
I’m not on welfare. I’d appreciate it if you didn’t make up lies about me.
Your Cato link is about the US, I was talking about Germany.
Immigrants in the US are less likely to receive welfare precisely *because* immigration restrictions make it harder for them to get on welfare. As I’ve said elsewhere, this is more of an argument for the status quo than for unrestricted borders. Amnesty and open borders, absent solid work requirements, would make it make it as easy for the current illegal immigrant population – disproportionately poor – would have as easy a time getting access to entitlements as citizens. What happened after courts rules states couldn’t impose residency requirements on state-provided entitlements? A lot more people began migrating from one state to another to take advantage of more generous entitlements. Why wouldn’t this happen with international borders? Because immigrants just inexplicably have more integrity than non-immigrants?
And lastly, I’m not anti-immigration; I’m anti-welfare state. I’m fine with basically unrestricted immigration as long as there are decent work requirements in place and (for some fixed duration) ineligibility of immigrants for most entitlements prior to citizenship.
TMC
Jun 28 2018 at 5:07pm
Just in the first paragraph: “Designating immigrants as “murderers” and “rapists”
No, he never called all immigrants this. He said there was higher number of criminals in immigrant populations, which is true.
“consider that his administration has tried to clamp down on all forms of legal immigration”
The travel ban was for 7 countries and didn’t affect any quota – so no reduction in immigration. These seven countries, selected by the Obama administration, are not willing or able to vet the person who is trying to immigrate as the US requires.
Trump asked congress to pass a law legalizing the DACA kids and proposed a larger number that was asked for. Net effect: larger immigration.
” an effort to deny immigrant entrepreneurs ” is handled above, and even though capped, it’s still an immigrant friendly program.
The rest is about as accurate as the first paragraph.
shecky
Jun 29 2018 at 12:04am
Citation seriously needed. Pretty much every credible info I’ve seen says otherwise. If one is seriously concerned about apprehending criminals at the border, it’s an absurd waste of resources doing it the way we’re doing it now. But not so much if you think immigrants are murderers and rapists.
https://www.cato.org/blog/immigration-crime-what-research-says
TMC
Jun 30 2018 at 7:11pm
I posted one citation below, but it really doesn’t take too much effort to find evidence. I haven’t seen much evidence that supports your position.
Scott Sumner
Jun 29 2018 at 2:05am
Everyone, Lots of misinformation here. Crime in Germany has fallen to the lowest level since 1992. In America, immigrants are less likely to commit crimes.
Immigration helps our economy, especially programs such as Social Security.
But this post was about the cultural aspect of immigration.
Mark, I do agree that Germany should remove barriers to immigrants getting jobs.
Mark Z
Jun 29 2018 at 9:14pm
Scott,
The link I posted talked about a rise in violent crime in Saxony, a region that has received a large number of migrants, not Germany as a whole (I should’ve clarified). In Saxony, despite North Africans making up only 1% of the population, they account for 17% of crime committed. They of course have high rates of unemployment. Other regions with particularly high rates of migration have had similar problems.
Regarding getting rid of restrictions on finding work, how about getting rid of the biggest impediment – the incentive not to work created by paying people not to work or paying them regardless of whether they work or not?
Lastly, I’ll note that the contention that immigrants in the US commit less crime than native-born Americans rests on the (almost certainly false) assumption that victims of immigrant-committed crime (who are themselves most likely from immigrants communities) report crimes at the same rates as non-immigrant victims. There are obvious reasons why an illegal immigrant victimized by another illegal immigrant is much less likely to report the crime, so this statistic should be taken with a grain of salt.
Now one could fairly argue that it’s still irrelevant, as such crime would be irrelevant to native-born Americans, but it is worth mentioning I think.
Conscience of a Citizen
Jun 29 2018 at 10:15pm
Who asked about the overall German crime rate? The question is whether immigrants are committing a lot of crime compared to natives in Germany, which they are.
In America in recent decades actual immigrants on the average don’t have a higher crime rate than natives on the average, but the children and grandchildren of immigrants do. Furthermore, the distribution is not even– immigrants from some source countries along with their offspring are much more criminous than those from other source countries.
Finally, it is likely false that immigration helps Social Security. Immigrants earn less than average in the US, so they draw more from Social Security when they get old than they pay into it when they’re young. (I thought everyone knew that Social Security was redistributive?)
TMC
Jun 30 2018 at 7:13pm
Quick google will show tons of stories just like Newsweeks:
MIGRANTS IN EUROPE LINKED TO SOARING VIOLENCE AND CRIME IN GERMANY, STUDY FINDS
http://www.newsweek.com/migrants-europe-violence-crime-germany-study-770105
Evan Smiley
Jun 29 2018 at 10:37am
As with so many other things, the problem is the state.
Sure, there are all sorts of psychological explanations one could posit for why people might fear that their own culture might be spoiled by mere proximity with a different culture, but most of these explanations are easy to dismiss.
The one that’s not so easy to dismiss, is that immigrants could take over the state and use it as a vehicle for oppressing a particular culture. To me, while this fear is often way overblown (and is not even specific to immigration, though that seems to make it more visible, which could actually be a good thing) it IS a legitimate point of concern.
I don’t agree with those who say that we must restrict immigration until we first reduce state power (because doing so only further propagates state power) but I think we can recognize that the existence of a powerful state significantly hampers the benefits that could otherwise be derived from increased immigration.
Travis Allison
Jun 29 2018 at 2:33pm
I am not sure that illegal immigrants commit fewer crimes than US citizens:
http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2016/sep/02/sean-hannity/sean-hannity-says-illegal-immigrants-account-75-pe/
There might be confounding factors, perhaps the drug trade.
Robert EV
Jun 30 2018 at 1:58pm
It’s important to point out that those are statistics for convictions.
I’d be willing to bet that citizens receive deferred prosecution agreements significantly more often than non-citizens, and especially illegals (e.g. Rush Limbaugh for his drug abuse).
TMC
Jun 30 2018 at 7:04pm
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/illegal-immigrant-crime-rates/
‐ My SCAAP-extrapolated crime figures actually are lower than those calculated by John Lott. Using Arizona Department of Corrections data spanning 1985–2017, Lott calculates that illegal immigrants in Arizona aged 18-35, for example, are 250 percent more likely to commit crimes than young U.S. citizens. Further, such illegal immigrants commit more serious crimes — such as murder, robbery, and sexual assault.
‐ Illegal-immigrant crime data, regardless of source, likely understate crimes committed by illegal aliens. That’s because illegal-immigrant victims are less likely to report crime, and even if crimes are reported, illegal immigrants are less likely to appear as witnesses leading to conviction.
Mark Brady
Jun 29 2018 at 4:38pm
“Viewed objectively, the recent immigration into Germany seems like a net gain for the world. The gains to the immigrants almost certainly outweigh any possible losses to Germany.”
In this case “viewed objectively” is somewhat tendentious. Do you mean that those who gain (the immigrants) could “almost certainly” compensate those who lose (those already living in Germany) and still come out ahead? And whether or not they were required to do so? And if that’s what you mean, what about tens of millions of other potential immigrants who are denied access to the EU (and thus to Germany) whose gains might well be larger and/or might well impose smaller losses on German residents?
E. Harding
Jun 29 2018 at 5:08pm
“Perhaps this is about some other unspoken issue, which makes many people feel that the Germans of Cologne are “us”, whereas both the blacks of Detroit and the Asians of Silicon Valley are “them”.”
Sumner, you do know Brexit was driven by complaints about White (specifically, Polish, Baltic and Romanian) immigration, as well? And that Japan and Korea being inundated by an influx of Indonesian migrants would be treated with the same passion by immigration restrictionists as the Syro-Afghan influx into Germany? Immigration restrictionists support immigration restrictionists in Germany for the same reason they support immigration restrictions into Israel and Japan: a real victory for immigration restriction in one country, especially if it is first-world, is a moral victory for immigration restriction in their own.
“Crime in Germany has fallen to the lowest level since 1992”
The sharp decline in crime from native Germans has overwhelmed the sharp spike in crime from migrants because there are far more native Germans. This is proof of what, exactly?
“In America, immigrants are less likely to commit crimes.”
What about their children? And immigrants do not come from a homogeneous “immigrant-land”.
“Immigration helps our economy, especially programs such as Social Security.”
Some does; some doesn’t. People are individuals.
Conscience of a Citizen
Jun 30 2018 at 4:14am
That seems very unlikely to be true. German authorities report (a) that most of the recent non-European immigrants (“Merkel’s millions”) are unemployed and nearly unemployable– they are living on the dole and will continue to do so; (b) those same immigrants commit a lot of crimes.
So whether the unemployability of said immigrants is due to their low human capital* or to some ethnocentricity of the Germans, it will remain the case that the Germans have to pay lots of taxes– and transaction costs, and deadweight losses– to support and police the immigrants, and to pay the bureaucrats who extract tax money from Germans and disburse it to immigrants and various hangers-on.
The direct and indirect costs of providing X Euros to low-human-capital immigrants are X+Y Euros taken from Germans, so the gains to the immigrants do not and cannot exceed the losses to the Germans.
That is especially true when you reckon Germans’ loss of valuable amenities: increased delays for medical care; public buildings and social housing repurposed to shelter immigrants, diverting services away from Germans; no more carefree public Christmas celebrations in Cologne; etc.
The crime problem is worse. It’s no good to say that only some of the immigrants are criminals. A portion are almost-criminals who must be deterred from criminality at great cost (policing, bars on windows, etc.). Another portion are undeterrable criminals. Since the German police and courts cannot restrain those criminals until after they commit serious crimes, admitting a bunch of criminals (even if they are mixed in with less troublesome people)) means a steady stream of innocent Germans must suffer incompensable losses (robbed, raped, etc.) at their hands.
*There is no getting around it– Merkel’s millions cannot command good wages in any advanced economy.
Mark Bahner
Jun 30 2018 at 4:03pm
I wasn’t aware there was substantial doubt about this. 😉
Mark Z
Jul 1 2018 at 2:46pm
Can you really not conceive of why people would disagree with you for any reason other than racism? I’m guessing, however, that you somehow manage to have a more charitable interpretation of Harvard’s policies toward Asians.
Thaomas
Jul 1 2018 at 7:11am
Both in its economic effects and in its “cultural”effects, the key consideration ought to be the rate of flow compared to the rate of assimilation, including exogamy. Both of these vary by economic/cultural characteristics of different immigrant groups. I can see that the cost benefit ratio rises with higher rates, but for the US today, I think the economic benefits of more (even of fairly low skilled immigrants) is considerably greater than the costs and that we are very far from the point at which the cultural impact would overwhelm assimilation, especially if we increased assimilation by reducing the hostility to some immigrant groups and perhaps encouraging greater dispersion across the country.
Seppo
Jul 1 2018 at 7:31am
As a Finn who used to live in UK, previously multiple years in Germany and these days in Switzerland, I think immigration is net plus for countries with flexible job markets and questionable proposition or net minus for countries with rigid and regulated job markets.
The way you receive people is also makes a huge difference.
If you brandish people with ”asylum seeker” badge and push them to closed compounds to ”learn” local language you are for sure causing net damage to your country and practically ensure that these people will never become productive.
I’m all in favor of borderless world, but given hugely restrictive and centrally planned job markets and social security system, I think our european policital system is currently incapable of dealing with immigration. If we’d let private sector to deal with immigration it would most likely work 100x better.
Europe needs much more neoliberalistic policies and reduced public sector to turn unrestricted immigration into such a net positive that no new Hitlers will rise up. Because of this unfortunate situation, I think that as a planet we are better off if Europe resticts the immigration right now.
The sad thing is that ”right” in europe is generally pro established business and left is against business. We basically lack the ”pro market” option and I don’t see this changing any time soon.
mbka
Jul 2 2018 at 10:06am
It is with great sadness that I’d have to agree.
Another mortal sin commited here is that “immigration” into Europe has been defined near exclusively as one of two cases:
temporary workers never meant to achieve permanent immigration status
asylum seekers
As a result, all and any immigration is equaled with “temporary”or “problem” people. This has poisoned the sentiments towards all and any immigration for probably two generations. You can’t convince any European right now that an immigrant may actually be a good and productive person, even a highly educated one.
The left and the right are equally guilty of creating that situation. The nationalistic right is nativist by instinct, the left mainly wants to let problem people in.
Kevin Nguyen
Jul 2 2018 at 12:22am
Yes, it is definitely a harsh reality as to what’s really happening to the world today. Illegal immigration is a big issue especially in the united states. However, we finally as americans had a black president, Barack Obama whom fully created and reform the DACA act but will potentially be terminated by the current president, Donald Trump. However, Germany and United States are two different countries and have different founding fathers. Just because one nation has an issue does not mean that the United States should worry about them. Due to such conflict one would not always worry about other factors such as “dead weight loss” that america faces due to illegal immigration. There is however, potentially a threat in large masses of immigration especially from the neighboring country, Mexico.
This in act does not defer from the problems the nation is facing and it should be addressed seriously. One must come and enter into the united states legally and must be barred from entry if one is to take or understand what is at hands or at stake.
Best,
Kevin
Larry
Jul 2 2018 at 2:08am
Immigrants, being somehow different, offer a convenient group to saddle with the responsibility for the terrifying sense that many have that things are becoming unglued. Whether it’s because of climate change, robots, globalization, feminism, or a host of other destabilizing changes, people feel like they are losing their ability to control their own destiny. There must be somebody to blame.
Lorenzo from Oz
Jul 2 2018 at 8:32pm
Coming from a country (Australia) with a much higher proportional immigration flow than the US, I find US debates over migration odd.
First, the level of illegal immigration is clearly a huge problem. It distorts the debate, creates a black market in labour and gives lots of voters the feeling of having no effective say (because they don’t).
Second, treating immigrants as an undifferentiated mass is just silly. (I know economics lends itself to that, with people as interchangeable utility-maximising machines, but what is missed is that culture affects framing, expectations and preferences so that the same situation can create quite different incentives to people of different cultural heritages.) It is an observable fact that (1) different groups of migrants have different crime rates and (2) Muslims (specifically mainstream Sunni Muslims: Ibadis, Alevis, Ismailis and Ahmmadis are not an issue) create problems no other group of migrants do, and the more so the larger group they are.
Third, treating migrants as having no effect on incentives within the country is just silly. For example, the combination of lots of non-voting housing market entrants with positional goods is more or less guaranteed to create regulatory restrictions on the supply of housing land, with consequent upward effects on rents and houseprices.
Fourth, I am deeply sceptical about “(all) migrants are (always) an economic positive” arguments. See point about not being an undifferentiated mass, the effect on housing markets, plus the un-calculated social welfare costs and not differentiating effects on residents depending on access to capital (yes, of course migrants are a positive to capital holders if they increase the relative premium on such capital). Australia migration policy is essentially set up to not disturb the capital/labour balance. (We are the only country whose migrants are a net addition to human capital.) Robert Fogel, in his “Without Consent or Contract” provided strong evidence that C19th migration to the US was not good for native-born workers.
Fifth, even in Australia, which is generally strongly pro-migrant (but not illegal migrant: conflating the two issues poisons migration debates), the congestion costs are beginning to wear away at support. Making sure your physical, social and political infrastructure is up to the influx is actually quite difficult. Especially as aforementioned housing market effect actually militates against having adequate physical infrastructure (by raising its costs and lowering its tax revenue benefit). The US political system does not strike me as currently functional enough to manage. The EU political system in some ways, even less so.
Lorenzo from Oz
Jul 2 2018 at 8:51pm
“Only country in the Western world that is not a micro-state whose migrants are a net gain to average human capital” to be more precise.
Denmark is apparently determined to be not-Sweden on matters migration.
Lorenzo from Oz
Jul 2 2018 at 8:54pm
See here. https://archive.fo/sVGtY#selection-605.0-613.197
When your welfare model essentially requires cultural homogeneity to work, migration potentially brings lots of extra issue.
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