In my recent Defining Ideas article titled “A Refresher Course on Free Trade,” I made the case for free trade. A large part of the economic case is that free trade makes people in the country that adopts it better off than if their government hadn’t adopted it. It makes imports cheaper, allows consumers to get a more varied range of goods, and causes labor and capital to be allocated to areas of the economy where they are most productive.
In the United States in recent years, there have been two main objections to free trade. The first is that when free or freer trade is introduced into a particular sector, producers in that sector, both owners of capital and laborers, will be worse off. Therefore, argue some of the people who make this point, either trade shouldn’t be liberalized or, at least, introduction of trade should be accompanied by government spending to compensate the losers. The second objection is that free trade benefits mainly the wealthy and does little for the workers who are living on the economic edge. The first objection is often true in the short run but almost always false in the long run; it also applies to any economic change whether that change is caused by international trade or purely domestic economic interactions; in short, the objection proves too much. The second objection is simply false.
This is from David R. Henderson, “Dispelling Two Objections to Free Trade,” Defining Ideas, July 1, 2021.
Another excerpt:
Second, there is nothing special about free trade. Indeed, in a large economy like that of the United States, most trade is not across borders but is between people within the US borders. In 2019, imports were about 14.6 percent of gross domestic product. That sounds high, and is high, but that number confirms that most trade in the United States is between and among people in the United States. When a new technology or even a new way of running a business helps consumers, it also destroys many businesses and hurts workers who lose their jobs or who must work at a lower pay to keep their jobs.
We don’t need to go back far to see such examples. When I taught in the business school at the University of Rochester in the late 1970s, some of my evening MBA students who worked at Kodak called it the “big yellow money machine.” Kodak was riding high on the technology that innovator George Eastman and his successors had created and perfected. But digital cameras in the 1980s and 1990s and, later, cell phones that got better and better at taking still shots and movies, virtually destroyed the market for Kodak’s product. It’s true that part of the causes was international trade in cell phones. But even without cell phones from other countries, US cell phone producers were plenty capable of competing Kodak into bankruptcy.
One more excerpt:
For 2019, the latest data available, households in the bottom two quintiles, which is about 53 million households, spent an average of $1,032 per year on clothing. That’s out of an average after-tax income of $22,591. So they spent 4.6 percent of their income on clothing. Because clothing prices fell over that time, they would have bought more clothing at the lower price. So we will understate their gain if we assume that they were insensitive to price and bought the same amount of clothing that they would have at the higher pre-expanded-trade price. Even assuming no further drop in clothing prices after 2103, the 24 percent drop in price was important for a household with such limited means. The clothing they would have bought in 1997 would have cost an inflation-adjusted amount of $1,358. So the average family in the two bottom fifths of the income distribution saved $326 on clothing alone. Over 53 million households, that is a gain of about $17.3 billion. Assuming that the 650,000 people who lost their jobs lost as much as $10,000 each per year, which is probably an overestimate, their loss was $6.5 billion, which is less than 38 percent of the gain. Moreover, the average worker in a clothing factory in the United States, along with her or her family, almost certainly earned more than $22,591, the average income of the bottom two-fifths.
Read the whole thing.
READER COMMENTS
Frank
Jul 4 2021 at 2:48pm
The case for free trade is not that everyone wins, but rather that the gains of the winners exceed the losses of the losers. It does not follow that the winners should compensate the losers. But if they don’t, it is not clear how we can get to freer trade. After all, the losers vote.
David Henderson
Jul 4 2021 at 5:11pm
We’ve gotten much closer to free trade over the last 75 years without major compensation of the losers.
Frank
Jul 4 2021 at 9:09pm
I know how it was done so far and I know what wasn’t done. We are not near free trade.
Jon Murphy
Jul 4 2021 at 5:29pm
The political case for free trade is that the gains to winners exceed the losses to losers in the short term (and even that’s just the past 30 years or so). The economic case is that everyone benefits, even those temporarily displaced. See, for example, Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations, Frédéric Bastiat’s Economic Sophisms, Paul Krugman’s textbook International Economics, and just about any intro textbook.
Also, there is the moral case for free trade (as laid out by Adam Smith and countless others). There is a morality to free trade: allowing people to follow they’re natural propensity to truck, barter, and exchange. The mere fact that someone somewhere might be made worse off is insufficient to justify the infringement on liberty. I have a short article on the presumption of liberty at the sister site Adam Smith Works. I’d link to it, but I’m on my phone.
My point is that the case for free trade is far broader and richer than you assert, Frank.
Frank
Jul 4 2021 at 9:10pm
Everyone benefits? Krugman? Intro texts? Cannot be.
Jon Murphy
Jul 4 2021 at 10:58pm
And yet, it is.
Frank
Jul 4 2021 at 11:03pm
Citations?
Jon Murphy
Jul 5 2021 at 6:31am
… I gave citations.
Thomas Lee Hutcheson
Jul 5 2021 at 6:59am
Not “everyone,” but “in the aggregate.” This has been clear since Stolper Samuelson or even factor-price equalization theory.
Jon Murphy
Jul 5 2021 at 9:44am
Stolper-Samuelson is just short term, though. Long run analysis shows everyone
Frank
Jul 5 2021 at 1:14pm
Stolper-Samuelson is part of H-O. With all factors mobile, it’s long run. Specific Factors – one factor fixed – is short run.
Jon Murphy
Jul 5 2021 at 2:06pm
Correct. Which consequently means that everyone benefits as all inputs go to their highest and most-productive uses.
Frank
Jul 5 2021 at 2:23pm
Long run US reaction to imports from China, which has low wages: Labor intensive production in the US shrinks, setting free capital and labor. The expanding export industries would like to hire capital and labor, but in a different proportion than the one in which they are released. This leaves unemployed labor left lying around. That pushes down the real product wage in every industry until employment is restored. Workers are worse off. Owners of capital of all kinds are better off. The latter gain more than the former lose.
Jon Murphy
Jul 5 2021 at 2:32pm
That is the mistake. It is incorrect that workers are made worse off with a shift to more capital-intensive industry given that capital enhances productivity. Indeed, we see workers are better off in more capital-intensive societies.
Frank
Jul 5 2021 at 2:43pm
The capital-labor ratio in the capital intensive industry, as in all other industries, falls. Labor productivity must fall. Real product wages must fall.
Jon Murphy
Jul 6 2021 at 7:02am
Why? No theory or reason suggests that labor productivity must fall. In fact, rudimentary economic theory would suggest that the firm would cease adding capital long before labor productivity falls.
Frank
Jul 6 2021 at 11:44am
Labor productivity depends upon the capital-labor ratio. The firm pays lower wages.
Mark Brady
Jul 4 2021 at 5:38pm
“The case for free trade is not that everyone wins, but rather that the gains of the winners exceed the losses of the losers. ”
I suggest that it’s better to say that everyone who participates in the exchanges that result from free trade benefit from those exchanges. It’s just like they would if current consumers switch from one set of U.S.-based producers to another set of U.S.-based producers.
Frank
Jul 4 2021 at 9:12pm
And their wages?
Mark Brady
Jul 5 2021 at 5:21pm
You raise the question “And their wages?”
In those particular exchanges some participate as consumers and others as owners of factors of production, and both parties gain. That’s all that I am saying.
Frank
Jul 5 2021 at 5:57pm
Nope, we all participate as consumers and producers. To figure out who is better off, we gotta look at prices of goods consumed and wages and capital income earned. In capital rich countries, like the US and Western Europe, trade with China lowers real wages, measured by any product.
I repeat the explanation:
Long run US reaction to imports from China, which has low wages: Labor intensive production in the US shrinks, setting free capital and labor. The expanding export industries would like to hire capital and labor, but in a different proportion than the one in which they are released. This leaves unemployed labor left lying around. That pushes down the real product wage in every industry until employment is restored. Workers are worse off. Owners of capital of all kinds are better off. The latter gain more than the former lose.
Mark Brady
Jul 5 2021 at 7:15pm
Frank, I think we’re talking past each other. I don’t deny your argument. However, when an economist says that trade benefits both parties, s/he is saying that both the buyers qua buyers and the sellers qua sellers who participate in any particular exchange benefit from that exchange.
And, as I said before, the argument is the same were current consumers to switch from one set of U.S.-based producers to another set of U.S.-based producers.
Frank
Jul 5 2021 at 7:29pm
No, this is not about two individuals trading. Such two must benefit, or they wouldn’t do it.
As for people in countries, they will be affected differently. Some goods will have higher prices [export goods] and some will have lower prices [import goods]. Some wages will go down and some incomes will go up. We’re after the net effect on individuals.
In the US unskilled wages are lower due to the China trade, and returns to capital of all kinds are higher. There are winners and there are losers. But the winners win more than the losers lose.
Don Boudreaux
Jul 7 2021 at 8:55am
The exchange here promoted me to write this post at my blog, Cafe Hayek:
Frank
Jul 7 2021 at 12:45pm
-This says trade is good because it makes some worse off, who then acquire skills to make them better off. Why didn’t they acquire the skills in the fist place?
-It also says received international trade theory is wrong.
What’s wanted is an explanation of why there are no losers.
Alan Goldhammer
Jul 4 2021 at 3:51pm
I agree with your essay but disagree with the examples, LOL. Kodak had a number of key patents on digital imaging (in fact they developed the first digital camera) but the powers to be did not want to see the film brand sales harmed by transitioning. You mention the impact of cell phones, but Kodak’s fate was sealed well before the mass adoption of cell phones with cameras. It was the pocket size digital cameras that did them in. Kodak tried to compete in this market but could not manufacture cameras at even a break even point. Kodak was also losing film market share to Fuji Film and rather than try to figure out how to compete, launched a WTO complaint against the Japanese firm that was dismissed. The business case here was of a fat and lazy company that saw the writing on the wall and hoped it would go away.
In the article you discuss Chinese exports of apparel, but off shoring of textile manufacturing started prior to China’s entry into the WTO. It moved to low cost labor countries of Latin America and Asia along with China.
David Henderson
Jul 4 2021 at 5:10pm
You’re right that I left out Fuji, but I did mention digital cameras.
Ralph T Byrns
Jul 4 2021 at 7:05pm
Change invariably harms some people. Whether change derives from freer trade or the ‘creative destruction’ of capitalism or some change in law, though some people may immediately gain enormously, some other other people lose — at least, in the short run.
One of my favorite examples is drawn from James Clavell’s 1962 novel, “King Rat” and a 1965 film based on Clavell’s novel. The environment: Thousands of allied soldiers suffer incredible cruelty and deprivation while being held in a Japanese POW camp in Singapore during 1942-1945.
However, an American corporal named King thrives through clever black market manipulation. Entrepreneurship even in dire circumstances. And in the process, almost all affected POWs gain. Then in August 1945, the surrender of Japan results in liberation. All freed POWs, including Corporal King, now have cleaner water, nicer clothing, and vastly more plentiful and tastier food. Most of all, they are free. But Corporal King is being investigated as a criminal, and many of his accomplices who had gained oodles of material goods, relatively, through their complicity, are brought down, losing most if not all of the class, status and power they had enjoyed in the hierarchy controlled by Corporal King.
The point: Change always entails structural change and always harms some people in the short run, regardless of how salutary that change may be for everyone affected, in the long run.
And so it goes.
Jon Murphy
Jul 5 2021 at 6:38am
It occurs to me this morning that there’s a Coasian way to address the first objection as well:
If free trade creates winners and losers, so does restricted trade. All trade is reciprocal. By forbidding trade (or heavily restricting it), the folks who would have benefitted from the trades do not; they are losers in the sense used by objectors to free trade. There’s no logical reason why the losers from free trade deserve compensation while the losers from restricted trade do not. Just like how there’s no particular reason why the polluter should have to pay a tax and not the one being affected.
Frank
Jul 5 2021 at 1:20pm
While a move toward protection also creates winners and losers, the losers lose more than the winners win. So the winners can’t compensate the losers and still be better off.
Anyway, compensation is not a question of desert, but a method to get to free trade.
Jon Murphy
Jul 5 2021 at 2:33pm
As a method to get free trade, it is a way, but not a particularly good one. But David is addressing the “losers of free trade” argument as an objection to free trade.
Frank
Jul 5 2021 at 3:00pm
We must recognize that there are losers. Only then can ways be thought about getting to free trade.
What is actually done is to prevent enough trade to prevent too big losses. That’s why I like compensation. Others may like persuasion, force, whatever. Good luck with any of that.
Jon Murphy
Jul 5 2021 at 3:02pm
Irrelevant. Of course in the short run there are losers. That is true regardless of trade.
The whole point about the “losers” discussion is that it is logically inconsistent. That’s why it keeps going around in circles.
Frank
Jul 5 2021 at 3:13pm
There are short run and long run losers.
That life wasn’t meant to be easy is quite a sales pitch in getting political support for further moves to free trade.
As I said, good luck with that.
Thomas Lee Hutcheson
Jul 5 2021 at 6:48am
Everything you write is true, but it does not address very directly 4 points.
Freer trade and lower transport costs and investment flows reduced demand for a particular kind of semi-skilled work that was somewhat geographically concentrated so that the costs became quite visible (with arguably important political consequences) while the benefits, though larger in the aggregate were widely dispersed.
The trade policy and trade costs to manufacturing workers was aggravated by being embedded in trade agreements that favored US service exports more than US manufacturing and agricultural exports.
Exports were discouraged (via the exchange rate) during this same period by large structural fiscal deficits and growing use of US dollar assets as international reserves, again harming manufacturing workers.
The wage tax that is earmarked for financing SS and Medicare was rising during this period
All these trends converged to produce very visible shifts in the income distribution for which “trade” gets the blame. A different set of non-trade policies – different trade agreements, lower fiscal deficits, financing SS and Medicare with a VAT instead of a wage tax could have produced the same gains from freer trade without the adverse income distribution consequences.
Thomas Lee Hutcheson
Jul 5 2021 at 2:52pm
It is not trade related but there is a parallel case of the distributional consequences of immigration policy. While almost almost everybody benefits from immigration (the exception being those with the most similar skills), in practice, allowing for undocumented workers, US policy has restricted high skilled immigration much more than low skilled immigration, so immigration policy also has probably favored high-income people more than it has lower income people.
The politics of this are also evident.
In all policy discussions, it’s important to bear in mind the distributional consequences, if only to be sure that they can be ignored.
Frank
Jul 5 2021 at 8:15pm
Exactly and precisely.
Jon Murphy
Jul 6 2021 at 7:04am
Again, no one is ignoring distributional changes. What we are saying is that they are not a valid objection.
The objection is considered and then rejected. That is explicitly not ignoring it.
Frank
Jul 6 2021 at 11:45am
So there are losers from a move to freer trade after all?
Frank
Jul 5 2021 at 2:21pm
Long run US reaction to imports from China, which has low wages: Labor intensive production in the US shrinks, setting free capital and labor. The expanding export industries would like to hire capital and labor, but in a different proportion than the one in which they are released. This leaves unemployed labor left lying around. That pushes down the real product wage in every industry until employment is restored. Workers are worse off. Owners of capital of all kinds are better off. The latter gain more than the former lose.
Matthias
Jul 5 2021 at 10:08pm
What makes you think that the new proportion of labour to capital demand actually means less labour?
The US is famous for exporting highly labour intensive services, like financial services and software. Isn’t it capital intensive goods manufacturing that has moved offshore? At least those are the common complaints.
Matthias
Jul 5 2021 at 10:09pm
PS And of course, the US is largely very open to capital from outside its borders. If capital gets a better deal, more is flowing in to re-establish equilibrium.
Frank
Jul 5 2021 at 10:34pm
Absolutely! Then we’ll have to service all that investment undertaken domestically by foreigners in the future.
We’ll specialize more in capital intensive goods and pay the returns to foreigners.
Wonderful.
Frank
Jul 5 2021 at 10:56pm
Real wages do rise, though, as there’s more capital for each laborer to work with.
Frank
Jul 5 2021 at 10:23pm
That’s Human Capital in financial services and software. It is far less so in manufacturing. Hell, even Chinese producers can make home gyms!
Jose Orellana
Jul 8 2021 at 1:06pm
David, wonderful insight. I recall, during my time as undergraduate student, being amazed by the fact that international/domestic trade brings about creative destruction and thus dis-equilibrates the current equilibrium in any given sector. Indeed, then, as you said, certain producers/firms will be hurt in the short run, but this is not the case in the long run.
Just curious, under the presumption that you are familiar with the works of Paul Craig Roberts, what is your take on his argument, claiming that international trade is one factor responsible for destroying the U.S.’s manufacturing base, as firms, all things equal, seek to allocate capital towards nations that have a comparative advantage in low transaction costs — that is to say, low costs of accessing markets, such as labor markets.
To elaborate, a given factory worker, again, all things equal, in terms of human capital, is equal to a factor worker, say, in Asia. But, given that, in the U.S., there are high transaction costs associated with labor markets — the market for factory workers — some firms may be incentivized to offshore production towards nations that have low transaction costs within the market for factory workers (e.g., such nations may have no minimum wage laws, no threats of friction caused by unions, etc.) . International trade, in the form of labor, then, taken in the aggregate, argues Craig Roberts, has caused the U.S.’s manufacturing base to virtually disappear.
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