The rise of populist politicians is a worldwide phenomenon. An interesting article by the bureau chief of the Wall Street Journal in Germany analyzes the phenomenon in light of last weekend’s electoral advance of two populist parties, one at the extreme right, the other at the extreme left, in two German states (Bertrand Benoit, “Europe’s Populist Surge Isn’t Only About Immigration, It Is About Fading Trust,” Wall Street Journal, August 2, 2024).
The portrait Benoit and his sources draw is roughly the following. Some crisis happens, which the government is unable to solve because of the checks and balances of liberal democracy. This fuels popular discontent and mistrust of government. As a result, the voters turn to populist politicians.
This analysis raises many questions. Why are today’s democratic governments less able to find solutions than before? How can voters mistrust government while they elect populist rulers who promise more government? Populism is and has always been interventionist. And how can voters believe that populist governments will be able to solve all the problems, given for example (as Benoit mentions) the level of public debt—a problem that was caused by governments intent to solve all problems?
I suggest there is a better explanation, inspired by the work of economist and political philosopher Anthony de Jasay. The growing discontent with the state comes from its inherent incapacity to simultaneously satisfy non-identical individuals. Otherwise, its growing powers over more than a century would have done it already. What happens is that democratic governments and their politicians vie to respond to the demands of a majority of voters and thus buy their support (as well as the support of vocal special interests). This generates discontent among those who finance the buying or are handicapped by the government’s new interventions. Think about individuals who find themselves on the wrong side of official discrimination. These angry voters stake their own claims to government largesse, calling it “social justice.” A new vague of discontent is generated that the government will try to defuse to the detriment of other citizens.
The more interventionist the state is, the more people will complain. Like the Red Queen and Alice in Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking-Glass, the state must run faster just to stay in place and even more to move forward.
We should not discard the valid complaints of ordinary people against the bullying they have been subject to by the political establishment over the last several decades, from licensure laws to galloping criminalization and coercive discrimination. Remember the legal apartheid initiated against smokers, who were mostly from the low classes, and the private venues that wanted to welcome them–bars, fast food joints, or even outdoor places. (I would add and change a few things in my Econlib article of a quarter of a century ago on “The Economics of Smoking,” but my private-property argument against the so-called “externalities” of smoking was correct.) The major cause of discontent lies in the pretensions and power of interventionist democratic governments. But it is an error to believe that a populist government can stop the discontent cascade. Populism is nothing but totalitarian democracy with a human face: the face of a strongman. It generates further dirigisme, polarization, and discontent.
How will the Red Queen race end? Not well, de Jasay believes (see the last chapter of his seminal book The State—the interpretation that follows differs only slightly from de Jasay’s). Being continuously asked to give and not to take away, to intervene and not to harm, state rulers will use up all their discretionary power just to remain in command. They have to promise more to outbid their political competitors. The state will thus need more and more economic power. It will fuse political and economic power into “state capitalism.” It will stealthily nationalize the economy, through regulation and cronyism rather than via the Marxist route. Eventually, it will have no choice but to abolish electoral competition and the other checks and balances in order to effectively pursue the happiness of the people–and the power of the rulers. The state will have gained unlimited power. In this brave new world, the former citizens will in effect have become property of the state like slaves belonged to their masters on the plantations of yesteryear. The state will have become the Plantation State.
We don’t have to be as pessimistic as de Jasay to understand that, all over the world, such is the path our democratic leviathans are following.
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Sometimes, one must render to Caesar what is Caesar’s and to DALL-E’s what is DALL-E’s. The featured image of this post was produced by DALL-E after only one prompt: “Create an image showing the Red Queen and Alice (in Lewis Carroll’s *Through the Looking-Glass*) running faster and faster just to stay in place.”
READER COMMENTS
Roger McKinney
Sep 5 2024 at 11:04am
Excellent analysis! In the Bible, God gave ancient Israel an Anarcho-capitalist government that lasted roughly 480 years. Then the leadership demanded a monarchy, which God allowed as punishment for their rebellion.
Mises shows that Germany had full socialism and a socialist parliament after WWI but parliament created more problems with every intervention. Everything grew worse until the German people were tired of democracy. Hitler used that failure of the socialist parliament to convince people to vote for him. Academia helped sell Hitler to the people.
It’s a natural tendency for people to deify the state when they have nothing else to worship. Every intervention makes things worse until people tire of the failures of democracy and look for a charismatic messiah figure to become dictator.
Kreditanstalt
Sep 5 2024 at 2:22pm
“This fuels popular discontent and mistrust of government. As a result, the voters turn to populist politicians.”
Hopefully, more and more voters will begin to demand, instead of merely replacing the blue party with the red one (or vice-versa), smaller, poorer and weaker government. But with so much of economic life – and so many voters – dependent on government largesse I won’t hold my breath waiting
Pierre Lemieux
Sep 5 2024 at 4:32pm
Tash: You are right that people dependent on government are more likely to think that the latter is benevolent, efficient, and deserves more power. We could call this the Princess-Mathilde syndrome. But I think that the main problem is that the individual voter remains rationally ignorant of public issues because he has no influence on them: see point #7 in my post “Individual and Collective Choices in Cars.”
Roger McKinney
Sep 5 2024 at 5:31pm
Envy plays a part as well. Douglass North showed that the most robust form of government is a dictatorship in which the elite are allowed to plunder the common people at will in exchange for keeping the dictator in power. I wondered why people put up with that, until I read Helmut Schoeck’sclassicEnvy: A Theory of Social Behavior. People love such governments because they smash any common person who succeeds more than others.
Craig
Sep 5 2024 at 5:52pm
In the US many state economic development agencies view their cronyist subsidies as creating jobs.
Mactoul
Sep 6 2024 at 6:53am
There might be elements of friend-enemy dichotomy in play. Redistribution isn’t everything.
Pierre Lemieux
Sep 6 2024 at 7:33pm
Mactoul: You write:
I don’t think I understand what you mean. What is “redistribution” in your mind? It has a quite standard meaning in economics, at least in the area of economics interested into matters of state action, from welfare economics to public choice to constitutional political economy). Redistribution does not consist in giving away bubble gums or money. It is about harming some and favoring others. Properly conceived, redistribution is everything for the state, or at least for any state not founded on unanimity. The best way to express this complex idea in a few words of Anthony de Jasay’s in his introduction to Justice and Its Surroundings (p. xx):
I think you should try to read de Jasay. Start with The State. If you have already read it, you will find useful to reread it.
Mactoul
Sep 7 2024 at 12:40am
I was trying to say that often the voters vote for tribal friend/enemy reasons and not for economic “what I am getting from the govt” reasons.
Pierre Lemieux
Sep 7 2024 at 11:31am
Mactoul: OK, I see now. It is important, however, to remember that the “economic ‘what I am getting from the govt’ reasons” includes enforcing one’s preferences and values, including tribal ones, against others. That’s what slave owners got from their state governments, and partly from the federal government, in the Old South. In my post “The Economics of Violence: A Short Introduction (worth reading, I think), I quoted Jack Hirshleifer:
It is redistribution when the state is used to favor some by attacking or exploiting internal or external enemies (“enemies of the people”).
Craig
Sep 5 2024 at 3:28pm
“What happens is that democratic governments and their politicians vie to respond to the demands of a majority of voters and thus buy their support (as well as the support of vocal special interests). This generates discontent among those who finance the buying or are handicapped by the government’s new interventions.”
Very true, I’d say Big Government is inherently divisive. #nationaldivorce is the answer.
Daniel Klein
Sep 5 2024 at 4:40pm
Hi Pierre,
I notice that Milei goes unmentioned in your piece.
Also, you fail to say what you mean by ‘populism.’
Best,
/Dan
Pierre Lemieux
Sep 5 2024 at 7:22pm
Dan: Thanks for your comments. What I take populism to be is explained in the link under the second “populism” (substantive) in my post–a link to my Independent Review article “The Impossibility of Populism.” I take populism to be a political ideal where the people rules. My article explains why it is theoretically impossible for “the people” to rule and thus what a populist regime or ideal amounts to in practice.
I think 100% of politicos and would-be rulers in the world go unmentioned in my post. I was excited by Milei’s election and am not unsympathetic to him, but he has sent conflicting signals. I would wait to see if he will be a populist ruler.
Daniel Klein
Sep 5 2024 at 9:02pm
Hi Pierre,
I find that definition of ‘populist’ unsatisfactory.
I’m more inclined to define populism chiefly in terms of a declared animus against establishment elites (or some image of such in the minds of those constituting the populist movement).
As for whether Milei rules as a populist in my sense of the word, I don’t follow Argentina at all, but my impression is that he does in fact govern as a populist in that he is taking actions unwelcome by the establishment elites he identifies as the bad guys.
/Dan
steve
Sep 6 2024 at 10:07am
I think that fits with the more standard definitions. The problem with that definition is then defining the elite. That mostly seems to be the people one doesnt like. It’s not really all professors, just the ones one doesnt like. It’s not all wealthy people, just the ones supporting stuff one doesnt like. That all works to the advantage of the populists as they get to direct hate towards a poorly defined group called the elites while never admitting that they like and welcome the support of elites who support their cause.
Steve
Pierre Lemieux
Sep 6 2024 at 10:15am
Dan: If you “define populism chiefly in terms of a declared animus against establishment elites,” the communist parties would have been “populist” in many European countries for a large part of the 20th century and, in certain cases, up to now. So would be the extreme environmentalists, at least in the 1960s and 1970s. In the 19th century, European monarchists would also enjoy the label. So would perhaps the Catholic Church in the 18th and 19th centuries.
In my view, any useful and history-compatible definition of populism or the populist sentiment must include “the people” as well as the personal power that embodies it.
Mactoul
Sep 7 2024 at 12:43am
Populism, at present, functions merely as a code for politics that is insufficiently welcoming of Third World immigration.
Jose Pablo
Sep 8 2024 at 9:42pm
a code for politics that is insufficiently welcoming of Third World immigration.
Yes, there is that (although more like Second World immigration like Turkish, Polish, Mexicans … you know, this kind of criminals).
But it is also a code for politics that is insufficiently welcoming of international trade
And it is a code for politics that is insufficiently welcoming of markets
And there is also a code for politics that is insufficiently welcoming of optimism about the future. Populists know for a fact that we are doomed. We need, with populism’s help, to abandon this neoliberal road to nowhere and be made great again.
But more than any other thing is a code for politics that is insufficiently welcoming of the individual put at the center of political action. Populists know too well that salvation and reenacted greatness, are reserved for those who put the nation, the people, the “collective” front and center.
What has ever gone wrong when you work for the betterment of the “people” and the Fatherland?
Robert EV
Sep 8 2024 at 10:43pm
@Jose Pablo
Right. For me this is: I don’t want a politician to be a champion, I want a politician to let me champion myself.
Pierre Lemieux
Sep 9 2024 at 10:31am
Jose: You write:
Indeed, populism, which is a corruption of democracy, is just another form of collectivism, that is, the domination of collective choices over individual choices.
Pierre Lemieux
Sep 9 2024 at 10:36am
Robert: I think this is what Jose is also saying. “Laissez faire, morbleu! Laissez faire!”
Robert EV
Sep 9 2024 at 11:53am
@Pierre
Sure. But as a hoi polloi largely at the mercy of what producers choose to produce, I just want to expand the point beyond the market. Before ‘the market’ can work, people need to be aware of their alternatives (get the right answers regardless of the questions they ask), able to seek out those alternatives (respond based on those answers), and be able to afford more than a Hobson’s choice.
Pierre Lemieux
Sep 10 2024 at 3:23pm
Robert: If I read you correctly, economics proves exactly the contrary. Consider the following. Ordinary people are not “largely at the mercy of what producers choose to produce.” It is on the contrary the producers who are at the mercy of what consumers want. It is not true that “before ‘the market’ can work, people need to be aware of their alternatives.” Before the market works, there is very few alternatives, if any, for serfs and even ordinary consumers. The market is a process of discovery, as Hayek emphasizes. Consumers were not aware of the alternative of smartphones before Blackberry and then Apple and other entrepreneurs put them on the market, hoping to make profits by making consumers (and producers) discover something they might like. When hoi polloi are free to make their own individual choices, you soon see extended markets (including financial market) develop, followed by an Industrial Revolution. Of course, it took time for the right institutions to evolve. Thomas Hobson was living in the 16th and 17th centuries, one or two centuries before that happened (although financial markets had begun developing in Holland and Italy). A few readings:
John Hicks, A Theory of Economic History, a delicious little book, easy to read; the link is to my review, but the book is a must);
My Regulation article, “Why the Great Enrichment Started in the West,” might alert you to the writings of Deirdre McCloskey and other economists and economic historians.
Jose Pablo
Sep 8 2024 at 10:03pm
Populism is the “art” of exploiting, for the advancement of your own political ambitions, the very well-known biases of voters.
Caplan contends that democracy fails precisely because it does what voters want. [Voters] suffer from four prevailing biases: they underestimate the wisdom of the market mechanism, distrust foreigners, undervalue the benefits of conserving labor, and pessimistically believe the economy is going from bad to worse.
https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691138732/the-myth-of-the-rational-voter
So, yes, populism is on the rise. I think Brian just made the populists’ job easier. It was inevitable anyway. Sooner or later even politicians (the worst that get on top among the socialist of all parties) would have realized.
Mactoul
Sep 6 2024 at 1:21am
This all the problems is a strawman . As I make out, the mainstream parties in Europe don’t wish to restrict immigration, for whatever reasons, but a lots of people do want to restrict. The very term pupulism in this context means nothing more or less than opposition to Third World immigration.
There are not likely to be many people getting dismayed by public debt. A red herring, if it ever were.
And it is really funny
It isn’t because of checks and balance that illegals are coming in.
Jose Pablo
Sep 6 2024 at 9:05pm
It isn’t because of checks and balance that illegals are coming in.
No illegals are coming in because they have a huge incentive to do so and the people in charge of stopping them haven’t (much less so the more human the enforcers are. And sure are humans among them).
Thinking that any legal framework and the government enforcement of such legal framework can stop this tide is extremely naive.
The legal existing framework and the government enforcement of it results in more than 8 million crimes committed every year in the US. Of which only around 35% of violent crimes and 12% (!!) of property crimes are cleared (very little checks and balances are involved in the “clearing” phase).
Try to renew your driver’s license at your local DMV and you will understand why the government (any government, it is mostly an incentives problem) will fail at stopping the coming in of immigrants.
Robert EV
Sep 7 2024 at 5:54pm
The absolute worst place to smoke anything (or vent laundry, or what have you) is in the public commons. I’ll spare you the citations. This crap needs to be kept indoors, and filtered through activated carbon and HEPA filters prior to dumping it outside. Dealing with chemicals and perfumes dumped into the public environment costs my household enough that it has made the difference between saving for retirement (beyond my pension and SS) and not. And we are ones who can afford to (mostly) escape this, unlike that poor woman in Canada who couldn’t afford an apartment away from chemicals and chose medical euthanasia instead.
I’m glad exposure to second hand tobacco smoke has been greatly reduced (though unfortunately not eliminated). I just wish the general lesson had been learned.
Pierre Lemieux
Sep 7 2024 at 8:09pm
Robert: I certainly sympathize with your family’s plight and wish that the conversation not be personalized. (I sympathize less with the Canadian woman you mention, if the story is true.) And I agree that if cigarette smoke or perfume scent or incense fumes cause people to drop dead or some other major costs (as opposed to insignificant inconvenience, as Anthony de Jasay would say), it should be kept in the private domain and on beaches. On the contrary, governments have pushed tobacco smoke out of private property by forbidding many private property owners–such as restaurants, workplaces, airlines, and even cigarette shops or cigar clubs, etc.– from welcoming smokers even with “smokers only and lovers of secondhand smoke” warnings. So perhaps governments are not very efficient at dealing with these problems by taking sides among citizens?
Pardon me, but I cannot avoid mentioning another aspect of the problem, which makes it more complicated than it looks like. Obviously, eternal life is worth infinitely more than an 80-years life in our valley of tears, at least for those who believe in eternal life and their compagnons de route. Should government forbid, in the public domain, advertisements (say, of scantily-clad women or even just cleavage for the weakest of us) that can lead certain viewers, in their own appraisal, to sin and be eternally damned? And if God does meter collective punishments, isn’t theocracy, and the right sort of it, the only solution? My young-man’s idol, Murray Rothbard, argued that living in society in inseparable from a normal assumption of risk.
Robert EV
Sep 8 2024 at 12:37am
You should probably sympathize more. Government was not a solution to her problems, and neither was private charity. Here’s the story: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/woman-with-chemical-sensitivities-chose-medically-assisted-death-after-failed-bid-to-get-better-housing-1.5860579
It seems to me that the government trying to prevent people from being ‘tested’ in their faith would be sacrilegious, and possibly counterproductive to the salvation of souls. (I’m an atheist raised a christian, so take this tongue in cheek.)
Not federal or state government, at any rate. I’m kind of annoyed at the public as well with respect to the legalization of marijuana smoking.
Robert EV
Sep 7 2024 at 6:00pm
I’ve a comment caught by the filters.
Jose Pablo
Sep 8 2024 at 10:16am
The rise of populist politicians is a worldwide phenomenon.
Indeed!
I am particularly appalled by the rise in support of autarky. This economic doctrine has been repeatedly proven wrong. It shares this unenviable characteristic with socialism (in fact, frequently both go hand in hand). And yet … are nationalists never tired of getting it wrong?
America is going to be great again if the chips that are going to be consumed in the US are made in the US. Even the Spanish Prime Minister stated recently that everything in Spain would be great (again?) if Spaniards just drove more electric vehicles manufactured in Spain (if Spaniards use more made-in-Spain Kleenex too, or it only works with electric vehicles?).
I don’t know man, why it didn’t work for Nazi Germany, Francoist Spain, Hoxka’s Albania, North Korea Juche policy, Nehru’s India, Argentina …
What happened with Adam Smith and Ricardo? aren’t they included among the K-12 mandatory books anymore? (this was ironic)
Maybe I should try autarky myself. Plant my own food, sew my own clothes, build my own car. dig and refine my own oil … I am sure going to be pretty busy. But I very much doubt I am going to be “great again” by doing so.
Seriously, what is wrong with people? When “redneckness” became so popular and fashionable all over the world? …
I am starting to worry. Down this path, there is a real danger I can’t keep having my daily high tea liturgy properly supplied. At some point, I am afraid, listening to Mahler or Crieg in my tea time wouldn’t be allowed anymore. I will be endlessly forced to Bernstein! Well, any sacrifice to make America great again.
Jose Pablo
Sep 9 2024 at 12:52pm
Indeed, populism, which is a corruption of democracy,
Yes, Pierre. There seems to be an ample consensus on this.
But what worries me, and your post and the tendency it highlights seem to corroborate, is that “populism” is the inevitable destiny of majoritarian rule (we tend, we humans, not you for sure, to forget that “democracy” is a bigger thing, and majoritarian rule is not necessarily the only form it can take).
Taking (a) voters’ biases as a fact (they seem well proven and easy to observe) and (b) Public Choice analysis of politician incentives as valid, the only place majoritarian rule can end is populism. Even if you start with a well-designed institutional framework, like, for instance, the US (almost) did, Roosevelts and Trumps will always rule at some point. And “democracy” will be “frog-boiled” into unbound populism. Levitsks & Ziblatt’s, How Democracies Die and Juan Linz’s, The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes are very interesting in analyzing what happens after that. Spoiler alert: it is bad.
The alternatives, for instance, your courageous effort to educate the masses, are destined to fail. I am afraid it is a battle against windmills … totally worth it, anyway!
Robert EV
Sep 9 2024 at 7:19pm
From what I’ve been given to understand recently, political dispensations (where one predominant worldview reigns, such as neoliberalism in recent years) are of limited duration. As long as a democratic vote exists, these dispensations will inevitably be overturned as their limits become more noticeable.
Jose Pablo
Sep 9 2024 at 10:20pm
“As long as democratic vote exists”
Explain it carefully to Venezuelans and Weimar Republic Germans
Democratic vote exists … until it doesn’t
Comments are closed.