What’s so great about international trade? Economist’s standard answer boils down to two words: comparative advantage. Specialization and trade increases total production, even if one side is more productive across the board. A textbook example starts with a table that shows hourly productivity in two countries, such as the U.S. and Mexico.
Table 1: Trade and Productivity
U.S. Productivity | Mexican Productivity | |
Cars/Hour | 4 | .1 |
Wheat/Hour | 2 | 1 |
To see how specialization and trade raise TOTAL productivity, just imagine switching five U.S. hours from wheat to cars, and twenty Mexican hours from cars to wheat. Total wheat production rises by (-5*2+20*1)=10, and total car production rises by (5*4-20*.1)=18.
When I teach the economics of immigration, I routinely tell students that immigration is trade in labor, so the same logic applies. In fact, I just relabel the preceding table:
Table 2: Immigration and Productivity (simple version)
U.S. Productivity | Mexican Productivity | |
Programs/Hour | 4 | .1 |
Childcares/Hour | 2 | 1 |
When asked, “Sure, but what’s the point of moving the labor?,” my standard reply is: “You can’t export most services easily. A Mexican nanny normally can’t perform childcare services for U.S. families unless she lives in the U.S.”
It’s a fine answer. But on reflection, it deeply underestimates the economic benefits of immigration. Why? Well, international trade is a wonderful thing, but merely trading goods across borders has no blatant effect on the productivity of the workers who produced the goods.* When a worker migrates from a low-productivity country to a high-productivity country, however, he becomes vastly more productive almost overnight. To really show the economic effect of migration, then, you should imagine moving from the world of Table 2 to the world of Table 3.
Table 3: Immigration and Productivity (improved version)
U.S. Productivity | Mexican Productivity | |
Programs/Hour | 4 | 1 |
Childcares/Hour | 2 | 2 |
Table 3 implies that migration raises productivity even if workers continue to use their time exactly as they did before. Suppose you move twenty Mexican hours from Mexico to the U.S. The workers continue to split their time evenly between programming and childcare. Production nevertheless rises by (10*(1-.1))=9 programs and (10*(2-1))=10 childcares. The mechanism can’t be comparative advantage, because the division of labor remains unchanged. The world is richer, rather, because Mexican talent has moved from a production desert to a production oasis. Once the immigrants arrive, of course, it makes great sense to specialize and trade; but immigration would have great economic benefits even if no one reconsidered his occupation.
Yes, I am well-aware that some researchers fear that immigration will transform production oases into production deserts. My forthcoming book has a whole chapter on this topic. The key point for now: Almost everyone – including me – has hitherto underestimated the gross economic benefits of immigration. And until we accurately measure immigration’s gross benefits, we can’t accurately measure its net benefits, either.
* Though there could be a big non-blatant effect; see Bloom and van Reenen on the managerial benefits of multinationals.
READER COMMENTS
robert
Feb 5 2019 at 2:12pm
Where in your analysis is my mother-in-law, who has never worked in the US and will never work in the US; however, receives full health benefits and will receive a pension?
Where in your analysis do you account for corruption or does your analysis assume that politicians will fulfill their fiduciary duty of their constituents as opposed to their own economic benefit by taxing their constituents to purchase new voters?
Do you account for the corruption in the increased in income inequality from importing large volumes of poor people while increasing taxes on the exiting populace, government services, and benefits to the wealthier populace to account for the increased income inequality?
Where in your analysis are cultural impacts? Do the habits and values of the labor force have any impact on the volume and quality of outputs produced by the labor force?
I wonder if you care that I have to pay for private school because the current school is predominantly foreign born, struggle with English, and ostracize my gregarious daughter. In theory it is great. In practice, the results are less than idea and the reaction from the people paying the costs will also be less than ideal.
James
Feb 5 2019 at 11:34pm
Robert,
What analysis of cultural impacts, corruption, etc. would you consider satisfactory? If you have seen some analysis comparing these impacts against the economic gains from immigration, please share. Otherwise, it sounds like you are just naming reasons why increased immigration could possibly be bad as if that were a demonstration that increased immigration would actually be bad.
I’m so sorry that you are forced to subsidize a school system that you (no doubt correctly!) identify as unsuitable for your child. Please consider that any immigration controls will be developed and enforced by the same sort of people who fail to see the moral problems with making you subsidize a school system that fails your daughter, even after you have chosen to send your daughter to a better school.
Hazel Meade
Feb 7 2019 at 1:16pm
Couldn’t you treat the foreign language population as an opportunity for your daughter to learn a foreign language? She could be taking classes in Spanish immersion, for instance.
TMC
Feb 7 2019 at 4:03pm
Hell of an expensive way to learn a language. Trouble with Bryan’s open borders is that it considers the benefits, but none of the costs. The US spends $22,900 in taxes per resident. So almost $100k per family of 4. How much do you have to earn to pay $100k in taxes to break even?
Andrew
Feb 5 2019 at 5:00pm
Where in your comment do you address Bryan’s central point?
Benjamin Cole
Feb 5 2019 at 8:32pm
The US appears unable to build housing or infrastructure anymore, often due to property ownership rights as presently defined (property ownership rights are very strong, but property development rights are nil).
Given the realities, the US should probably shoot for a slowly declining population. Immigration should be limited to a level that helps obtain this goal.
Libertarianism does have a null set, btw: If property ownership rights are sacrosanct, how does infrastructure ever get built? The Keystone pipeline could only be built by ramrodding the pipeline through rancher property, even if the ranchers did not give permission to pass.
There may be macroeconomic reasons for a higher or lower level of immigration. In the end, rule of law must govern results.
Kurt Schuler
Feb 5 2019 at 10:52pm
Your mode in posts about immigration is benefit analysis rather than cost-benefit analysis. You omit costs such as “robert” above mentions. There are other aspects of the issue that are not economic at all or at least not narrowly economic. If your book is going to get any more traction than your blog posts you need to address these issues rather than ignoring them or treating them as straw men.
James
Feb 5 2019 at 11:42pm
Kurt,
Have you ever raised the same objection to defenders of the status quo? Most defense of immigration restrictions only considers the costs of increased migration. I have never heard anyone defend immigration restrictions saying “Yes, it’s a shame to lose out on all these economic gains but…”
Is there any magnitude of economic benefit (e.g. increasing world gdp by 30%, 60%, etc) at which you would say the benefits of increased immigration swamp any plausible estimate of the downside?
Kurt Schuler
Feb 6 2019 at 8:13am
Note that costs and benefits do not accrue to the same groups. That is one of the problems with looking only on a global scale. An approach that more closely aligns costs and benefits is economic reform in poor countries to bring their institutions, especially those concerning personal liberty and property rights, closer to the standard of rich countries.
Kurt Schuler
Feb 6 2019 at 8:27am
P.S. In the case of the United States at present I favor greater immigration by high-skilled workers. It might help a bit to reduce income inequality by raising competition at the top, as well as providing some economic growth. It is also an example of how costs and benefits do not accrue to the same groups.
James
Feb 7 2019 at 8:02pm
That’s not what I asked you.
Warren Platts
Feb 6 2019 at 4:28pm
Borjas says that labor demand curves slope downwards. Therefore, mass immigration will lower the productivity gains of moving ONE person from Mexico to USA.
Side Bar
Feb 7 2019 at 8:36pm
Bryan,
Although your premise is almost certainly correct (i.e. that foreign workers and native workers both become more productive as a result of immigration), it necessarily follows that those remaining in the immigrant’s home country become less productive and poorer. You may be right that net productivity increases at most margins, but there may be some margins where the reduction in productivity at the home country is so great that net productivity decreases on a global scale.
There may also be a long-term systemic concern that people/ideas become concentrated in a couple of societies (that are productive now but perhaps not later) instead of dispersed across a more diverse system – but that is not a practical concern as of today.
dede
Feb 8 2019 at 2:15am
“Earth’s maximum possible sustainable human population leaves little room for wilderness or for large non-human terrestrial animals.”
Ever heard about cities? It is a great way to have people live on a very small tract of land and leave a large tract of land for agriculture and wilderness.
There was this great example that calculated that the current world population could leave in France in houses with gardens the size of the average US family of four house (admittedly very theoretical because you would need roads between the houses to make it practical so you may have to use Germany as well).
Somehow, the earth is vast, you know?
Niko Davor
Feb 8 2019 at 6:59pm
Normal people all over the world care deeply about their particular cultures, identities, religions, languages, even ethnicities. The open borders expectation is for “receiving” countries to suppress and undermine their traditional identities. Why is it invalid or immoral for people in receiving nations to preserve or even grow their traditional identities? Why is it valid and moral for open border advocates and activists to engage in undermining, suppressing, and destroying these identities?
Can anyone link an official Caplan or openborders.info response to this? I notice that openborders.info website lists the main immigration restriction arguments and provides rebuttals. But this argument, possibly *the* major objection to open borders is completely omitted. Why?
I know that the questions I’ve posed have been asked many times, by people much smarter and more prestigious than myself. So I’m asking for a link to semi-official answers to them that I can’t seem to find.
Lastly, in terms of strictly buy/sell labor markets, I’m absolutely convinced Caplan is right. But, immigration doesn’t just impact the buy/sell dynamics of labor, it impacts everything.
Mike H
Mar 2 2019 at 1:49pm
It’s not that it’s immoral, per se, to try to “preserve your identities” but that your means of doing so morally are limited. You can’t use mechanisms like voting (or threat of violence) to prevent your neighbor from inviting a foreign friend over for dinner or giving him a job or a place to live that doesn’t include your literal private property.
It’s perfectly moral to try to convince others that their identities are not worth caring about so much. That’s not “undermining, suppressing, and destroying” those identities. If those identities are weakened by disallowing the violations of rights by immigration restrictionists, that’s not the moral responsibility of open borders advocates. All that means is the preservation of those identity required immoral acts in the first place. It’s morally irrelevant that the identities no longer can exist in a moral system.
Comments are closed.