Yesterday I watched a debate between Phil Magness and Jeremy Horpedahl on lockdowns and liberty. Phil is a senior research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research and Jeremy is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Central Arkansas. The debate was sponsored by the University of San Diego’s Center for Ethics, Economics, and Public Policy and the Center for Health Law Policy and Bioethics. The moderator was Dov Fox, Professor of Law and Herzog Endowed Scholar at USD.
I had expected a debate about lockdowns, with Phil arguing against and Jeremy arguing in favor, but that’s not what it turned out to be. Phil did argue against, but Jeremy didn’t argue in favor.
I tend to take copious notes and here’s what I wrote down from Jeremy’s opening statement. This is not word for word, but it’s close.
Lockdowns are general shutdowns of non-essential industries.
There are two problems with lockdowns. First, they are very strong restrictions on people’s liberty. Second, all the lockdowns did was delay infections.
These restrictions did very little good and a lot of harm.
We should shut down where there’s an outbreak.
On the last sentence above, Jeremy gave the example of his own University, where 20% of the tests were positive the first week of classes in January and so they shut down for just a week. So the impression I got was that Jeremy believes only in localized shutdowns that last a short time. This is nothing like the lockdowns that we in California have to deal with. In fact, Jeremy stated that most states had abandoned lockdowns within a month of imposing them and it was only rare states like California that sustained them for 10 months.
In short, both Phil and Jeremy strongly oppose the extensive lockdowns we have had in California. I was gratified to hear that.
I had to leave the debate at 5:12 p.m. and so it’s possible that in Q&A Jeremy made stronger statements in favor of lockdowns but I think I’ve stated the views I heard accurately.
Much of the discussion was about masking and there were real differences between the two debaters about mask mandates. I’ll deal with that in a separate post.
One thing I liked was the civility of the discussion. Jeremy went first and set the tone by referring to Phil as his friend. Some debaters say this kind of thing and then go on to show that the person isn’t their friend at all, but that’s not what happened. Jeremy seemed genuinely friendly as did Phil in response.
I’ll update with a link to the recorded debate once I get one.
UPDATE: Here is the link to the debate.
READER COMMENTS
Diana Weatherby
Feb 10 2021 at 5:20pm
I would prefer people willingly do things over government mandates as they can choose things that make sense for their own circumstances but it seems that people have decided to divide themselves into two groups that I can only label “do everything possible” and “do nothing at all”. Then they argue with each other and to me it’s a bore and defies everything I learned studying economics over the years. I wish I would have listened in. Perhaps that debate would have been interesting.
Gene
Feb 11 2021 at 10:52am
There are 2 types of people in the world: Those who think there are 2 types of people, and those who don’t.
Thomas Hutcheson
Feb 11 2021 at 1:22pm
I would think a debate would not be a good for discussion of this kind of policy issue as it sort of implies getting to a yes/no conclusion.
Rather, I think it makes better sense to ask, given certain states of the world: infection rates, how the disease is transmitted from person to person and the cost and effectiveness of different level and forms of restriction of commercial and social interaction and other policies, what is the optimal package of policy measures?
Jon Murphy
Feb 11 2021 at 3:02pm
It’s not clear to me where you are going with your comment. A discussion of the “optimal package of policy measures” would necessarily mean debate about policy measures that are a yes/no conclusion. The Magness-Horpedahl debate would happen over every policy in your package.
So, is your objection to just the one policy debate or to policy debates in general? I don’t understand your point
Thomas Hutcheson
Feb 12 2021 at 6:52am
I mean that the conclusion of a literal debate of a “matter of degree” question posed as a choice between two of the poles of multi dimension spectra could not find the optimum point along each dimension in between. Suppose the Great Barrington Declaration plus Tabarrok mass testing is the best policy, but we have debate between Total Lockdown and Do Nothing and Do Nothing wins. How does that get us to the right solution?
Jon Murphy
Feb 12 2021 at 8:41am
Ok. I’m still not seeing your point. It seems like you don’t like the alternatives being discussed in this debate, but the problem you raise occurs for any mutually-exclusive choice.
As public choice economics teaches us, politics is not a discussion on the margin but a all or nothing thing. Either lockdowns happen or they don’t. Either mass testing happens or it doesn’t. Either Biden wins or Trump. Etc.
So, again, I’m not understanding your objection.
Jerry
Feb 26 2021 at 6:38pm
Lockdowns are destructive, to the poorest and those small businesses.
Masks are a different thing all together. Let those who are most veritable do all they can to protect themselves, But leave me alone.
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