This is what happens when a country refuses to give in to bullying:
In November 2020, accompanying its import bans, China produced a list of 14 grievances and demanded that Australia “correct” its behaviour.
Mr Morrison ignored the demand, and took China to the WTO over its barley and wine bans. Yet now China has relented. This was consistent with Mr Xi’s broader charm offensive in Bali. And no doubt the advent of Mr Albanese, a less abrasive prime minister, provided cover for the climbdown. At bottom, though, Australia’s refusal to bend meant the Chinese approach was just not working. It is a lesson, says Malcolm Turnbull, Australia’s prime minister from 2015 to 2018, universally applicable to victims of bullying: “Stand your ground.”
If all countries responded in this way, the world would see less bullying. Unfortunately, not all countries are willing to stand their ground.
The US government recently gave in to bullying from Russia, which essentially kidnapped a US basketball player and held her hostage as a bargaining chip in negotiations to free a convicted arms dealer. It is tempting to view this prisoner swap as a “humanitarian” gesture, but just the opposite is true. The fact that Russia’s tactics were successful insures that more people will be used this way in the future. In the long run, there will be more hostages taken as a result of the US government decision to give in to the Russian demands.
This is a perfect example of what economists call the “time inconsistency problem”. Actions that seem beneficial in the short run may end up being very costly in the long run.
READER COMMENTS
Philo
Dec 9 2022 at 1:54pm
On the other hand, it is easy to protect oneself from being arrested by Russian authorities, and used as a bargaining chip: just stay out of Russia. American authorities, with considerable plausibility, can announce that the Griner case is a one-off, that henceforth Americans in Russia are on their own.
MarkW
Dec 9 2022 at 3:37pm
Exactly. This is a strategy that Russia will find it hard to repeat because American (and other western) citizens will be much more hesitant to travel there. Since Putin seems to want to push for a complete divorce from the West, that’s probably OK with him, but it’s still going to be difficult to use as an ongoing practice. The same goes for other countries. Yes, they could do this, too. But only once and at the expense of greatly harming formal and informal ties (including economic ties) with the country whose citizen is held hostage. So it’s far from a cost-free move even if they manage to make a lopsided exchange in their favor (as in this case).
Monte
Dec 9 2022 at 2:43pm
Does this mean that you intend for Paul Whelan and others currently imprisoned or being detained in Russia to languish there without U.S. intervention?
Spencer
Dec 9 2022 at 3:29pm
See: The Art of War
TMC
Dec 9 2022 at 4:39pm
” In the long run, there will be more hostages taken as a result of the US government decision to give in to the Russian demands.” Yes, this will be the result unfortunately. Griner wasn’t really a ‘kidnapping’ though as she did break the law. The sentence was way too harsh, likely to make us consider the trade.
Scott Sumner
Dec 10 2022 at 9:12am
I said “essentially kidnapped”, as the motive for holding her was obviously not the drug law violation. Putin was looking for a hostage.
Johnson85
Dec 12 2022 at 12:12pm
Do we really know this was primarily driven by wanting to target the US?
I’ve tried to figure out whether Russia will typically give time for drug possession, and it doesn’t look like they do, for people caught with it in Russia, but the law is on paper very penal for people caught bringing the drugs into Russia.
But I can’t really find much about actual sentencing with the little searching I have done. I can only find references to four sentences, two Americans with stiff sentences that were caught in 2021 or later, then an israeli woman that got a stiff sentence that was pardoned relatively quickly by Putin in conjunction with a visit by Netanyahu, and a NY woman that was apparently let off easy. Not sure if the lack of news items on sentences for importing drugs are because they don’t really enforce that law for marijuana or because US and other non-Russian news sources don’t take an interest in reporting on them.
I don’t doubt that Griner was targeted to put Biden/the US in a bad position, but it seems at least possible that it was a secondary “bonus” for Putin from they way they already enforce their drug laws.
Jim Glass
Dec 9 2022 at 7:41pm
Yes. Spot on.
Thomas Strenge
Dec 12 2022 at 7:17am
Well, the Biden admin is full of Obama veterans. Hardly surprising that the guys who brought us the Bo Bergdahl disaster screwed this up as well. On the flip side, apparently Trump was made this offer. Trump has obvious shortcomings, but he could always tell a good deal from a bad!
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