Randal O’Toole’s recent book, Romance of the Rails, is a slam-dunk. Actually, that is an understatement. The book is full of slam-dunks. In chapter after chapter, O’Toole, a long-time fan of railroads, puts his fandom aside and shows what a disaster government subsidies to, and regulations of, rail transportation have been. The book, subtitled “Why the Passenger Trains We Love Are Not the Transportation We Need,” is a fact-filled and numerate critique of some aspects of government-subsidized rail transit, whether it be passenger trains, subways, low-capacity rail, or high-speed rail. His bottom line is that in case after case, governments have turned the clock back on transportation, resisting and trying to reverse its progress.O’Toole, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, has been writing about transportation for many years and the depth of his knowledge shows. Chapters One through Five are largely about the successes of the early railroads. Chapters Six and Seven document the decline of urban rail transit and intercity passenger trains in response to market forces. Chapters Eight through Seventeen document the hugely expensive methods governments have used to preserve and extend rail transit, including subways, with little or no positive effect on passenger use of those modes of transit.
One of the most interesting and positive characters in the book is Ralph Budd, an early innovator in rail transportation. In 1934, Budd delivered the Zephyr to the Burlington Railroad. The Zephyr was a “streamliner,” a light train that could travel at over 100 miles an hour using minimal fuel. To show off its virtues on a 1,015-mile trip from Denver to Chicago, Burlington had guards at all of its 1,700 grade crossings so that the train would not have to slow. The train arrived just 13 hours and five minutes later. The cost of the fuel used? $15. I emailed O’Toole to ask if that was a typo. It was not. O’Toole explained that the Zephyr used only 412 gallons of diesel fuel, one of the cheapest fuels around. As a fellow train buff, I recall seeing a mid-1930s ad in Fortune with the saying “Have dinner in Chicago and breakfast in Denver.”
The rest of the book is pretty much downhill from there—not, I hasten to add, in quality, but in negative finding after negative finding.
These are the opening 4 paragraphs of David R. Henderson, “Romance and Reality: A Review of Romance of the Rails by Randal O’Toole,” Econlib, November 4, 2019.
In case you can’t tell, I loved the book.
Some other excerpts:
No book that covers the decline of urban rail transit would be complete without the obligatory section on the alleged streetcar conspiracy. I will not tell all the details here. The highlights are that, in 1974, an antitrust lawyer named Bradford Snell claimed in front of a Congressional committee that General Motors had tried to destroy urban rail systems in order to sell more cars. Snell averred that, in 1947, the federal government had brought an antitrust suit against General Motors for trying to destroy transit systems. A simple search of 1947 antitrust cases by a Congressional aide would have shown Snell’s statement to be false: the 1947 antitrust charge against GM was for monopolizing the sale of its buses. Moreover, although O’Toole does not point this out, basic economics says that monopolizing an industry causes the price of the industry’s output to rise. That makes Snell’s charge against GM all the more ludicrous because a higher price for buses makes the switch from rail less likely, not more. I recall George Hilton, my transportation economics professor at UCLA, telling us in class how absurd Snell’s claims were. O’Toole references Hilton’s testimony on the issue before Congress. O’Toole also quotes two transit historians’ conclusion that if there was a conspiracy to destroy streetcar companies, the feds should “indict everyone who bought an automobile” between 1920 and 1950.
Unfortunately, the myth did not die. It lived on in popular books and in the 1988 Disney movie Who Framed Roger Rabbit. O’Toole even cites Portland State University planning Professor Martha Bianco’s argument that the movie and an error-filled 60 Minutes episode helped persuade Congress to pass the Clean Air Act of 1990 and the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) of 1991, both of which penalized cars and started large subsidies to rail transit.
And one of my biggest surprises, on “light rail:”
One of the most eye-popping and informative chapters of O’Toole’s book is titled “Low-Capacity Rail.” Low-capacity rail is what is usually called “light rail.” But light rail, notes O’Toole, is a misnomer. He writes, “A typical light-rail car built today weighs about 105,000 pounds, while a typical subway or heavy-rail car weighs 83,000 pounds.” Nor are the rails they ride on lighter than subway rails. Why, then, is it called light rail? O’Toole explains by drawing on the Glossary of Transit Terminology. It’s called “light” because it has a light volume traffic capacity. In short, light means low capacity. The real high capacity carriers, shows O’Toole, are buses. Not surprisingly, “light rail” does not clearly boost transit ridership. In ten of the 17 urban areas that have built “light rail” since 1980, trips per capita and transit’s share of commuting fell. Those two measures rose in only three of the 17 urban areas. The Los Angeles County transit agency’s experience is instructive. It cut bus service to minority neighborhoods to fund more-expensive rail lines to middle-class neighborhoods. The NAACP sued and got a court order restoring bus service for ten years. But after the court order expired, the LA transit agency cut bus service and built more rail lines. Result: the system lost five bus riders for every new light-rail rider. Interestingly, the fatality rate for light-rail riders is four times that of bus passengers.
Read the whole thing.
READER COMMENTS
Jon Murphy
Nov 4 2019 at 1:44pm
I assume that is in 1934 dollars. Brought to 2019 dollars, that’s about $300 (using the BLS’ CPI Calculator, it’s $291.77).
That is unbelievable. You’re talking about $0.29 per mile (if my math is correct).
David Henderson
Nov 4 2019 at 5:34pm
Yup. That’s why I emailed him. I couldn’t quite believe it.
Nick
Nov 5 2019 at 4:33am
The fuel used looks pretty comparable with today’s engines. Impressive to have done in that well in 1934. The incredible thing is the price of the fuel, it looks like gasoline at the time was circa 19cents per gallon, the diesel he seems to run if on costs only 3.5cents per gallon! That’s not that far off how cheap natural gas is today vs oil, the gas being so cheap because its effectively a byproduct of the oil production and so there is a glut, perhaps the same was true in 1934 for diesel.
Joshua
Nov 5 2019 at 12:36pm
Abut 2.5 miles per gallon. 1/4 the efficiency of a mediocre motorhome for a train is pretty amazing.
Mark Bahner
Nov 5 2019 at 1:39pm
About 2.5 miles per gallon. 1/4 the efficiency of a mediocre motorhome for a train is pretty amazing.
But what motorhome carries 72 passengers and has a mobile post office?
Pioneer Zephyr
J Mann
Nov 5 2019 at 11:14am
O’Toole is a great example of the challenge of us normal people in a battle of the experts.
His arguments always sound convincing to me, but then somebody from the left shows up and says that he’s well known to be unreliable, that all his calculations are weighted, and that he routinely under-counts the massive subsidies received by the passenger car and road system.
I don’t know that I’m even capable of judging the debate – I suspect I’d end up gravitating to whatever evidence I found most congenial. Suggestions are welcome, but for now I’m ignorant. (And possibly rationally so, although it would be a welcome surprise to learn that the costs of educating myself are lower than I believe them to be.)
robc
Nov 5 2019 at 11:32am
That is when I suggest ending all subsidies for car, train, and bus and seeing what the real result is 20 years later.
The people who say know can safely be ignored.
David Henderson
Nov 5 2019 at 1:39pm
Do you have cites of some of his critics? If so, please share.
When I review a book, I read every footnote. So his claims are well sourced. Do I read all the sources? No. I read almost none of them. But I did his claims consistent with what I learned from George Hilton in 1973.
And, as mentioned, I followed up by email with him when I had doubts about the one stat on train mpg.
J Mann
Nov 5 2019 at 3:08pm
Here are an example criticizing O’Toole’s previous work – I think O’Toole gets the better of them, but again, since I haven’t put in the time to delve into relative subsidies, etc., I’m honestly a little bit at sea.
https://nyc.streetsblog.org/2009/06/02/randal-otoole-taking-liberties-with-the-facts/comment-page-1/
Similarly, Yglesias says that O’Toole ” is a pawn of the sprawl lobby who’s willfully blind to the ways in which current government regulations are anti-urban.”
As I said, O’Toole seems like the more careful and reliable analyst to me, but without a lot more time and expertise, I’m always worried that I’m siding with the viewpoint that I prefer.
Mark Z
Nov 5 2019 at 6:04pm
Yglesias’s resort to ad hominem doesn’t exactly lead me to credit his expertise. What’s the substance of his argument?
Joshua
Nov 5 2019 at 12:28pm
There’s nothing light rail can do that a bus can’t do better.
Exception: waste money
robc
Nov 5 2019 at 2:41pm
Also: go faster than traffic. Although if you created a dedicated bus track, it could too. But then you lose the flexibility of the bus being able to go on all roads.
Is the high expense of rail the vehicles or the rails ( and property)? Because if the former, you could have cheap buses running on dedicated bus only roads.
Alan Goldhammer
Nov 5 2019 at 3:06pm
An excellent book on the formation of the US railroad system is “Railroaded: The Transcontinentals and the Making of Modern America” by Richard White. It chronicles in depth all the give aways and other preferences that led to the building of the system.
David Seltzer
Nov 5 2019 at 5:04pm
Interesting. I lived in NYC 1980 to 1992. I watched as billions were spent on the Subway system. The IRT, started in 1904, was privately owned. The city took over in 1940. From 1950 thru the 1980’s,the Subway system fell into decline as the city was unable to secure enough financing. What followed over the next thirty years; deferred maintenance, ridership and service cuts, decaying infrastructure, graffiti and muggings. The problem was exacerbated in 1975 when NYC was on the brink of bankruptcy. Banks refused to issue NYC debt and the Ford Administration refused to help with federal funding.
Mark Bahner
Nov 5 2019 at 9:38pm
Any discussion of transportation that doesn’t consider the coming transportation revolution will be rendered largely moot in the next 10-20 years…and completely moot in 25 years.
The coming revolution in transportation involves three aspects:
1) Autonomous (computer-driven) vehicles,
2) Vehicles owned by large fleet owners, and operating in mobility-as-a-service mode, and
3) Electric vehicles.
The changes that will result are essentially too numerous to list, but probably include:
1) Travel on interstates, even interstates within cities, will routinely exceed 100 mph, and 150+ mph is plausible. These high speeds are possible because autonomous vehicles have much quicker reaction times, can have much better vehicle-to-vehicle communication, and much better situational awareness (such as simultaneous vision in visible light, radar, and infrared, on all sides of the car).
2) Ride-sharing will be greatly increased. Imagine a city of 1+ million people, where fleet owners combined know where every single person is coming from and going to, and at what time. One thing I envision is a system like the “hub and spoke” system of airports. People would come from their houses in single-occupant cars–cars *designed* to have only one occupant–but then most travel on interstates and major roads would be in minivans or small buses.
3) Need for parking will be eliminated completely. No more parking lots anywhere. No need for garages, even in homes.
4) Transportation costs will be tremendously reduced. Most cars sit unused 20+ hours per day. Cars must also be designed to be safe on interstates as well as around neighborhoods. With mobility-as-a-service, there can be some cars that never travel over 40 mph in their lifetimes. Also, since autonomous vehicles will be much safer, insurance costs will be much lower. Finally, the cost per mile per passenger is essentially directly related to the number of passengers. For example, if a minivan costs 60 cents per mile, the cost to one passenger is 60 cents per mile, but if there are four passengers, the cost goes down to 15 cents per mile.
5) Electric vehicles will essentially eliminate air pollution from vehicles in cities. Massive numbers of batteries will also be a tremendous benefit to the electric grid. The fleet owners will own thousands, or potentially even millions, of vehicles. They can therefore coordinate with utilities to buy electricity from the grid when electricity is cheapest, and put electricity into the grid when it’s most expensive.
Mark Bahner
Nov 5 2019 at 10:50pm
One more implication of mobility-as-a-service…it’s possible to know exactly how many vehicles carrying how many passengers at what times of the day occurred for every single road. So it would be much easier to operate every single road as a toll road, with only the people using each road paying for the road.
And another implication of autonomous vehicles is that they could drive much more consistently along a certain path. So road repairs could be focused on very narrow bands within lanes, rather than repairing a whole lane. Local neighborhood roads could even become sets of tire paths, with grass growing between them. And road lighting could be greatly reduced or even eliminated.
robc
Nov 6 2019 at 10:48am
#3 is wrong. The cars will still need to park in down hours, but it will be at centralized parking zones instead of spread all over.
The current ratio of 8:1 parking spots to cars **will** be greatly reduced. It could even be less than 1:1.
Mark Bahner
Nov 7 2019 at 11:30am
Heh, heh, heh!
So you say I’m wrong, but you say that the “current ratio of 8:1 parking spots to cars” could be reduced to “less than 1:1”. Your background must be in science rather than engineering! 😉
But did you also consider this…the ultimate measure of a parking lot or parking space is its *surface area*, not simply a count of the the number of spaces? So, for example, a parking lot might have wide spaces to allow doors to open for people to get in, and wide enough aisles in the lot so that even drivers with less-than-average ability won’t be bumping into other cars? The area side-to-side between cars can be reduced to almost zero with autonomous vehicles, because no human needs to get in an out of the car. And even the worst autonomous vehicle will be much better at getting into and out of tight spaces than a human with less-than-average parking ability.
Parking lot…all that wasted surface area! 🙂
And did you also consider this…few people would say that an automobile that’s at the pump at a gasoline station is “parked”? The mostly electric vehicles will be plugged in while they are stopped, and either getting electricity from the grid, or depositing electricity to the grid, or being cleaned or otherwise serviced. Most people would not consider that to be “parking.”
But…I’m nothing if not accommodating and ready to acknowledge error. 😉 How about: “The total surface area related to ‘parked’ vehicles (excluding the surface area related to vehicles being charged, discharged, or otherwise performing or receiving services) will be reduced by more than 90 percent.”
Can we agree on that? 🙂
robc
Nov 8 2019 at 9:34am
I am an engineer, that is why I try not to use words like all, none, or completely.
I dont agree with 90%. Very significant, I agree with. Some portion of people will choose to own their self driving cars and so will need garages/driveways. Those parking spaces wont decrease as much as parking lot ones. Somewhere between 50% and 80%.
Mark Bahner
Nov 9 2019 at 12:46am
I don’t agree with that. Let’s say there are 100 cars now, and each car has 8 spaces, for a total of 800 spaces.
Let’s say the rich own 10 percent, or 10 of those cars. They’ll keep their 10 cars, with 10 spaces in their garages, and maybe they’ll even wrangle a spot at their places of work. But I don’t think they’ll get to have the other 6 spaces. Those other 6 spaces are at places like brick and mortar retail stores that won’t even exist anymore, and at restaurants that won’t have any parking spaces because 90 percent of their customers won’t need them…so the restaurants will just tell the rich people to send their cars home to park). So those 10 cars will have gone from 80 spaces to at most 20 spaces.
Of the other 90 cars, the fleet owners are going to scrap say 50 of them, because 100 cars are no longer needed. (They only needed 100 cars because every person had a car, and most peoples’ cars sat in parking lots 20+ hours of the day.)
And of the 40 cars remaining, they’re on the road at all times, or back getting charged or discharged, or serviced in some way. So by my definition, those aren’t even parking spaces…they are service slots.
So I say the number of spaces goes from 100 x 8 = 800 spaces down to 10 cars times 1 or 2 spaces = 10 or 20 spaces. Going down from 800 spaces to 10 or 20 is much more than a 90 percent reduction.
So I stand by my prediction…more than 90 percent in parking upon full implementation of autonomous fleets. That will be in about 25 years.
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