A non-economist friend emailed me yesterday and asked me to explain the proposal for a $1 trillion platinum coin.
The proposal is that the Treasury mint a coin with a face value of $1 trillion and sell it to the Federal Reserve for $1 trillion. That way the Treasury gets an additional $1 trillion without the federal debt going up at all. It’s a way around the ceiling on the federal debt.
According to Paul Krugman, who advocates such a coin, this provision of the law makes it legal.
But it’s a bad idea.
Why? Because we don’t have only specific restrictions on what government can do. We have unstated, but widely understood, norms. One of them is that the government shouldn’t do this. It should play by the norms and, if the executive branch can’t persuade Congress to raise the debt, then it shouldn’t try to get around it with such stratagems. Bit by bit, such measures wittle away the constraints on government. And government, remember, is the entity we need most to constrain.
I remember during the Bush I administration (I think it was that one) that various conservative economists were urging the U.S. Treasury to, by regulation, tax only the part of a capital gain that was true capital gain by indexing asset prices to inflation. So, for example, if someone bought a stock for $100 in year x and in year x + 10 sold it for $200, but in year x + 10 the inflation-adjusted value of the original purchase price was $180, the tax should be only on the $20 real gain and not on what I have called the $80 phantom gain.
I opposed this idea. I think that indexing asset prices so that the tax is only on a true capital gain is a great idea. I don’t know whether the Treasury could find some weaselly language that allowed it to do this, but the proposed measure violated a norm: Congress gets to decide the tax code.
I think the same principle applies to the debt ceiling.
We see this norm breaking a lot lately and it’s very disturbing. When people of both sexes followed a female U.S. Senator into a bathroom and taunted her, that was disgusting. When President Biden was asked about it, he stated:
I don’t think they’re appropriate tactics, but it happens to everybody,” The only people it doesn’t happen to are people who have Secret Service standing around them. So, it’s part of the process.
If Biden had settled for the first 6 words, that would have been too faint but not terrible. But his “it’s part of the process” was disgusting. He should have gone further and denounced the tactic in no uncertain terms. Wasn’t he the guy who argued that the previous president violated norms of simple decency?
UPDATE:
Thomas Sewell, in a comment below, cites a Twitter thread by monetary economist William J. Luther. I recommend reading it. It challenges the Paul Krugman view that this stratagem is legal.
READER COMMENTS
nobody.really
Oct 6 2021 at 5:36pm
The obvious rejoinder is that this constraint relies on Congress–and Congress already has ways to restrain government: Just stop voting for spending.
The debt ceiling merely provides an occasion for hypocrisy: Legislators vote for spending, then preen before the ignorant (apparently this includes Henderson) about how they’re engaging in “restraint” by threatening to default on debts they’ve already incurred. By eliminating the debt ceiling, we’d eliminate this Kabuki theater.
In the absence of a debt ceiling, politicians who wanted to preen about exercising restraint would have to, well, actually EXERCISE RESTRAINT. Would candor really be such a bad policy?
zeke5123
Oct 7 2021 at 7:47pm
A group of 538 people voted for A, and now a different group of 538 people have to raise the debt ceiling to pay for A. Perhaps — just thinking out loud — the problem was with the first group of people and not the second. Maybe the debt ceiling forces decisions by the second group (probably not but maybe?)
Daniel Kuehn
Oct 6 2021 at 5:54pm
The problem is Congress decides taxes, spending, and (only since 1917) debt limits, and the Treasury can’t help it if Congress’s decisions are mathematically inconsistent. They have to break some norm and since the coin is legal it seems least bad. Ideally of course Congress shouldn’t pass mathematically inconsistent law and just do away with the debt limit. But as we’ve seen the debt limit (and government shut downs) are irresistible political leverage for interested parties that don’t mind throwing monkey wrenches in the federal machinery.
robc
Oct 7 2021 at 5:05pm
Fixed.
Daniel Kuehn
Oct 7 2021 at 5:45pm
I have good news for you: they already have legal authority to cut spending!
robc
Oct 8 2021 at 12:44pm
Exactly, now they need to just do it.
Michael
Oct 6 2021 at 6:59pm
Wouldn’t minting the coin be a controversial enough thing to do that it would provoke a negative reaction from markets? Maybe not as bad as a full-on default, but not nothing?
Gene
Oct 6 2021 at 8:36pm
Such a move probably would provoke such a reaction—which would then be immediately labeled a “market failure” and used to justify something even more outrageous.
Glenn Ammons
Oct 6 2021 at 8:02pm
Why platinum? Wouldn’t an IOU on a soiled bar napkin be more appropriate?
Thomas Sewell
Oct 7 2021 at 10:17am
It must be platinum because the “The Treasury is authorized to mint platinum bullion and proof coins”, and all the other authorizing clauses for the mint have limits specified.
See this thread for why it’s not legally authorized, but to summarize, a bullion $1T coin needs to have $1T of platinum in it and a proof coin is a bullion coin which is better looking.
The Treasury isn’t actually authorized to issue fiat, or token, coins, under the section being suggested as authorizing all this.
The proponents will argue that it’s technically legal because at least one of the authorizing bill’s authors thought the law would allow for seigniorage and a profit on minting collectible coins.
The problem with this view is that coins are defined in law, and whatever you want to call a piece of metal marked $1T with a little bit of platinum in it, it’s not legally a coin because it’s not legal tender, instead, it’s just a collectible item.
David Henderson
Oct 7 2021 at 10:53am
Thanks much. I’m a fan of Luther’s work, which you link to.
zeke5123
Oct 7 2021 at 8:26pm
I don’t really think the twitter thread is a good legal argument against it. Author doesn’t seem to even cite the correct statute.
Krugman et al would have us believe that a throwaway 2 line subsection in a statute that goes into exhaustive detail re the size of a quarter was actually intending to give Treasury the power to create a trillion dollars (minus 1 cent) out of thin air.
No, the statute I think can only be reasonable constructed that Treasury carry out this delegation in a reasonable manner (i.e., some correlation between bullion value and the nominal value). Otherwise, the whole scheme is heavily under minded (e.g., what is the point of specifying bullion values in other coins).
Not responding to you specifically, but being a textualist is different than being a literalist. Plain meaning is important, but it is not the end-all be-all. Here, as Scalia wrote in Whitman v. American Trucking Assns., Inc. 531 U.S. 457 (2001) Congress does not hide elephants in mouseholes. This would be a massive elephant in a tiny mousehole. I don’t think Krugman’s reading is serious.
Glenn Ammons
Oct 9 2021 at 10:25am
Thanks, everyone. I wasn’t expecting such interesting replies to my tongue-in-cheek question.
Anonymous
Oct 8 2021 at 12:47pm
There are many proof coins that are not bullion coins. Also there are many coins, including proof coins, where the face value differs significantly from the value of the metal in it.
Andrew_FL
Oct 6 2021 at 10:59pm
The Fed has no obligation to accept such a coin at face value if minted, and should in fact refuse to.
Mark Z
Oct 7 2021 at 2:36pm
Presumably, a president could just appoint a fed chair he knew was agreeable to buying such a coin. Of course maybe one would also need a certain number of members of the board of governors too?
David Henderson
Oct 7 2021 at 2:45pm
The president can’t fire the Fed chairman, so no, this would not work. He could try to rough him up physically as LBJ did with Fed chair William McChesney Martin, but that would be unusual.
Mark Z
Oct 8 2021 at 1:26pm
He could just appoint a sympathetic fed chair to begin with so that when the time came he could count on the fed chair to play along.
I googled the Johnson and Martin story. That was amusing, and kind of makes 60s politics seem like the wild west compared to today.
Thomas Lee Hutcheson
Oct 7 2021 at 6:12am
Isn’t Congress violating the norm that the debt ceiling is a joke?
Knut P. Heen
Oct 7 2021 at 7:41am
Would it not cost $1 trillion to mint the platinum coin? Or are we talking about a fiat coin? If the latter is the case, why waste platinum?
Andrew Clough
Oct 7 2021 at 10:16am
I don’t like the idea of of the coin but it seems the least worst option to me. The treasury has to provide the budget allocated by Congress, by law. The treasury can’t go over the debt limit, by law. If there’s a legal way for the treasury to meet both these obligations then doing so is better than deciding not to do so, no matter how absurd that way is. And a bill was recently introduced to prevent the coin but failed so we can’t say this approach to solving the problem is entirely an unintended consequence of the law at this point.
Daniel Kuehn
Oct 7 2021 at 1:02pm
Yes exactly my view. I agree with the norm-breaking point that David raises, but this seems like the least costly norm-breaking option available for resolving this mathematically impossible situation in cases where Congress doesn’t resolve it.
Scott Sumner
Oct 7 2021 at 12:59pm
Given that the US has essentially become a banana republic and that the debt limit itself violates all sorts of norms (i.e. don’t default on public debt), I’m not sure the platinum coin would make things much worse. But the Democrats probably won’t do it for political reasons.
David Henderson
Oct 7 2021 at 1:16pm
See my update, Scott. One reason they might not do it is that, according to William J. Luther, it’s illegal.
Also note the comment by Andrew_FL above. There’s no guarantee that the Fed would buy it.
Mark Z
Oct 7 2021 at 2:42pm
Wouldn’t this effectively kill the Fed’s independence and give the federal government de facto control of monetary policy? Assuming the Fed has to create money to buy the coin, then the government could expand money supply at will by minting these coins, right? Rendering central bank independence moot seems like a pretty serious line to cross.
nobody.really
Oct 7 2021 at 2:52pm
That’s … a regrettably good point.
Alan Goldhammer
Oct 7 2021 at 6:05pm
Actually it could be the Fed breaking away from a bunch of renegade Senators who want to bring the nation to complete stop. As has been noted over and over again, the debt ceiling limit raise has NOTHING to do with BBB legislation under consideration but rather to allow the country to pay existing obligations. The Democrats could take everything off the table tomorrow and there is still a need to raise the debt limit.
A wise strategy by Schumer is to move to eliminate the debt ceiling all together or at least settle for a raise that is so large that it won’t come up for a decade. He would put the Republicans in a terrible bind as it would then fall on them to abandon the filibuster or get the entire blame. I think McConnell blinked on this point yesterday which is why we are seeing the short term time limit. Schumer has a lot of cards to play if he cares to.
zeke5123
Oct 7 2021 at 7:53pm
Of course it has to do with BBB. Right now, they could raise the debt ceiling unilaterally via reconciliation. They won’t do that because they want to use reconciliation to do BBB even though they don’t have the votes.
Yes, the reason there is a problem with the debt ceiling is because of past spending. But make no mistake the reason there is an impasse is because Democrats don’t want to “waste” reconciliation on anything other than the monstrous BBB.
robc
Oct 8 2021 at 12:49pm
If congress cut spending back to constitutionally required payments and debt payments, there would be no need to raise the debt limit. There would be some room for some other spending too, but the bare minimum is easily covered by federal taxes.
Mark Z
Oct 8 2021 at 1:32pm
So, it would eliminate the Fed’s independence, you’re just arguing that’s an egg worth breaking to make the omelette.
This also seems like a matter of characterization. Democrats could cut discretionary spending to the point where there would be no issue paying existing obligations, no? If this is so important, then why aren’t they willing to do that? If the answer is, ‘because cutting spending would be bad’ then this really all just circles back to the age old political question of whether it’s good policy to borrow and spend more or less, doesn’t it?
Alan Goldhammer
Oct 7 2021 at 1:44pm
The Federal spending system has been broken for so many years now that it is just a passing joke. Back in the 1960s when I was a double major in political science and chemistry, one course in American Government spent a lot of time looking at Congressional responsibilities. Our professor later spent a sabbatical year working with Richard Bolling when he was the chair of the House Rules Committee working on reforms to House procedures. Back in the day the various appropriations committees would figure out what programs were worthwhile and how much money needed to be spent. This was forwarded to the respective appropriations subcommittee (IIRC there were seven of them) who appropriated the money. Of course in those days earmarks were still around and a seat on the appropriations committee was one of the most cherished. All of this work was done in about six months and the Federal budget was set. There were no games being played with debt limits or holding up this process.
BTW, Krugman was not the first one to advocate the issuance of a $T Platinum Coin (though he did write about it back in 2013 when the idea was first broached). This was circulating around for quite a period of time (as usual, Wikipedia provides good information here).
To the point regarding legality, the law is plain in that the Treasury can mint a platinum coin. It would be interesting to see what the textualist Supreme Court justices would do when faced with a legal challenge under the statute. Were they true to the language, they would uphold the Treasury’s ability to do this much in the same way they consistently uphold 2nd amendment rights to gun ownership. Luther’s argument in the Twitter thread is questionable and likely be litigated.
Vivian Darkbloom
Oct 7 2021 at 3:57pm
Vivian Darkbloom
13. January 2013 at 09:44
From the Wonkblog:
“The Treasury Department will not mint a trillion-dollar platinum coin to get around the debt ceiling. If they did, the Federal Reserve would not accept it.
That’s the bottom line of the statement that Anthony Coley, a spokesman for the Treasury Department, gave me today. “Neither the Treasury Department nor the Federal Reserve believes that the law can or should be used to facilitate the production of platinum coins for the purpose of avoiding an increase in the debt limit,” he said.
The inclusion of the Federal Reserve is significant. For the platinum coin idea to work, the Federal Reserve would have to treat it as a legal way for the Treasury Department to create currency. If they don’t believe it’s legal and would not credit the Treasury Department’s deposit, the platinum coin would be worthless.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/12/treasury-we-wont-mint-a-platinum-coin-to-sidestep-the-debt-ceiling/
Vivian Darkbloom
Oct 7 2021 at 3:58pm
That was from this thread:
https://www.themoneyillusion.com/tyler-cowen-on-the-trillion-dollar-coin/
Kaleberg
Oct 8 2021 at 12:40am
I think the Republican party through the idea of norms out the window a while back. Look at Obama’s attempt to appoint judges. Look at Trump’s policy of separating families in custody. Wielding power is sometimes about upholding norms and sometimes about breaking them. The gold standard was a norm, the very basis for international trade, but FDR and Nixon decided it was a norm that had gone past its due date. If minting the coin works, great. Norms aren’t just for one side.
Joel N Pollen
Oct 8 2021 at 12:30pm
You are 100% correct that the Republican party has violated norms all over the place recently, and it’s absolutely terrible. But your “they started it” justification is 100% wrong. Somebody has to be the adult in the situation. “I’m only violating the norms of a free and open society to correct the unconscionable violations of my evil opponents” has been the rallying cry of myriad oppressive regimes since the beginning of recorded history, cf. the death of the Roman Republic at the hands of Marius, Sulla, Julius Caesar, and Augustus.
If the gloves come off as soon as you detect foul play from your opponent, you show that you have no more respect for the norms than they do.
Anonymous
Oct 8 2021 at 12:55pm
Is either of those an example of Republicans breaking a norm? Didn’t Obama do the same thing separating families? Didn’t earlier Presidents face problems with judicial nominations?
Joel N Pollen
Oct 8 2021 at 1:31pm
Your comment is really interesting.
On the one hand, those are important questions. Is action X really a breaking of a norm, or just something that the other side doesn’t like and wants to frame as immoral?
On the other hand, this argument bears a suspicious resemblance to “they started it.” You say, “Didn’t earlier Presidents face problems with judicial nominations?” Perhaps they did. I’m no expert. Wikipedia says the delaying of his confirmation hearings was unprecedented. Perhaps you disagree. But regardless, the real question is, do we collectively think it was a morally upright thing to do? If yes, then we have no problem. If not, then it it’s a norm violation, and it makes no difference how many times other people did similar bad things in the past.
Mark Z
Oct 8 2021 at 1:39pm
Isn’t ‘they started it’ essentially your argument, though? Regardless, who started it depends entirely on when you start telling the story. On political norms and the judiciary, if you start with Obama’s judiciary appointments, Republicans started it; if you start earlier, in the 90s, with Bork and Thomas etc. and Biden holding up court appointments, then they did’t start it. Maybe one could start telling it earlier though and that would just look like retaliation as well. As with most conflicts, if anyone really started it, they’ve probably been dead for a long time.
KevinDC
Oct 8 2021 at 10:35am
The norm breaking point is very important. I’m reminded of this video by one of my favorite YouTubers describing how “shenanigans beget shenanigans” in the political process – mostly focused on the issue of the Supreme Court nomination process, but the general lesson applies too. Break one norm to make it easier for “your side,” and the “other side” breaks a different norm to offset that, and so on.
David Henderson
Oct 8 2021 at 11:48am
Good video. I hadn’t known about the forced recess at about the 10:00 point of the video. Wow!
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