Because this is the 50th anniversary of the announcement that Friedrich Hayek was co-winner of the Nobel Prize in economics (the person who shared it was Gunnar Myrdal), it’s a good time to look closely at his 1945 article in the American Economic Review, “The Use of Knowledge in Society.”
When I used to cover the article in my classes about 30 years ago, the students had trouble following his argument. Part of it, I think, was Hayek’s Germanic writing style: lots of long sentences. So for a few years, I quit covering the article. But that wasn’t satisfactory. So instead, I sent the students detailed comments and questions on various paragraphs to guide them through the article. That worked well.
Each time I look at my notes, I update. So this morning I updated yet again.
Here are my notes.
Teaching Notes on Hayek, “The Use of Knowledge in Society”
http://www.econlib.org/library/Essays/hykKnw1.html
David R. Henderson
October 9, 2024
I think this article is one of the ten most important articles published in economics in the last 80 years. So, it’s worth the effort.
The most important paragraph in this article is the third paragraph and the most important sentence in the article is the first sentence of this paragraph:
The peculiar character of the problem of a rational economic order is determined precisely by the fact that the knowledge of the circumstances of which we must make use never exists in concentrated or integrated form but solely as the dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all the separate individuals possess. The economic problem of society is thus not merely a problem of how to allocate “given” resources—if “given” is taken to mean given to a single mind which deliberately solves the problem set by these “data.” It is rather a problem of how to secure the best use of resources known to any of the members of society, for ends whose relative importance only these individuals know. Or, to put it briefly, it is a problem of the utilization of knowledge which is not given to anyone in its totality.
Economists today who draw on Hayek’s insight often refer to this point about dispersed information as “local knowledge.” Think about kinds of local knowledge you have about your job or other parts of your economic life, knowledge that would be unavailable to a central planner. Now ask yourself how things would work if you had to get a central planner’s permission each time you wanted to act on this knowledge. Think about your job and about other parts of your economic life.
In Section II, second paragraph, Hayek writes:
The answer to this question is closely connected with that other question which arises here, that of who is to do the planning. It is about this question that all the dispute about “economic planning” centers. This is not a dispute about whether planning is to be done or not. It is a dispute as to whether planning is to be done centrally, by one authority for the whole economic system, or is to be divided among many individuals.
When economists stared criticizing the idea of central planning early in the 20th century, the comeback from some of those who wanted central planning was, “Don’t you think we need to plan?” That’s why Hayek has this paragraph.
Read and reread Section III, second paragraph. There’s so much in there. One example: Think of someone who graduates at the top of his/her class at Stanford, Yale, or Harvard Law School. On a scale of 1 to 10, what does he/she know on the first day at the job that will help him/her do the job? My guess is that’s no more than 4 and could well be 2 or 3.
In Section III, third paragraph, Hayek writes:
Even economists who regard themselves as definitely immune to the crude materialist fallacies [i.e., thinking in terms of material wealth] constantly commit the same mistake where activities directed toward the acquisition of such practical knowledge are concerned—apparently because in their scheme of things all such knowledge is supposed to be “given.”
About 15 years ago, our dishwasher was leaving our dishes streaky and so we called the appliance repairman. He came out—minimum charge $69.95—and in 5 minutes assessed the situation and told us we should use powder instead of liquid dishwasher detergent. For a few minutes I was angry. Then I remembered Hayek. Explain. What did I figure out that is contained in this quote?
Read Section IV, fifth paragraph. Some economists who studied the Soviet Union and other centrally planned economies have claimed that the biggest failure of such economies was not in manufacturing but in agriculture. Given Hayek’s reasoning in this paragraph, explain why.
In Section IV, sixth paragraph, Hayek writes:
It follows from this that central planning based on statistical information by its nature cannot take direct account of these circumstances of time and place and that the central planner will have to find some way or other in which the decisions depending on them can be left to the “man on the spot.”
No question on this: Just think about it.
In Section V, first paragraph, Hayek states the dilemma:
We need decentralization because only thus can we insure that the knowledge of the particular circumstances of time and place will be promptly used. But the “man on the spot” cannot decide solely on the basis of his limited but intimate knowledge of the facts of his immediate surroundings. There still remains the problem of communicating to him such further information as he needs to fit his decisions into the whole pattern of changes of the larger economic system.
This is the dilemma. So far, Hayek has explained why central planning can’t work. Things seem hopeless. Information constantly changes and each person has only his or her little bit of information. It seems as if things would end in chaos. Is there hope? Yes, which is why I call this next part, “Free markets to the rescue.”
Let’s see what solves it.
Carefully read Section V, fifth paragraph, another key paragraph. Hayek writes:
It does not matter for our purpose—and it is very significant that it does not matter—which of these two causes has made tin more scarce.
Why is it very significant that it does not matter?
In Section VI, first paragraph, Hayek gives an analogy between the price system and machinery. What is that analogy?
In Section VI, second paragraph, Hayek uses the word “marvel” to describe the price system and then explains in the third paragraph why he uses that word. Why?
See the reading I’m attaching from that noted economic analyst, Howard Stern, for a humorous example of local knowledge.
http://www.theloonies.co.uk/1998.02/0012.html
Editor’s Note: Readers may wish to join us in a weeklong online discussion of this article later this month in the Liberty Fund Portal. Readers may also be interested in Don Boudreaux’s recent appearance on The Great Antidote podcast on this same topic.
READER COMMENTS
Richard W Fulmer
Oct 9 2024 at 2:49pm
Hayek’s description of the central planner’s knowledge problem can be summarized as follows:
o Knowledge is dispersed.
o Identifying, gathering, and transmitting this dispersed knowledge is difficult or impossible.
o Knowledge must be gathered and transmitted quickly before it becomes outdated.
o Even if all dispersed knowledge could be gathered in time, no central planner has the capacity to analyze it, much less do so in a timely fashion.
But the problem goes deeper. Much of the knowledge needed to run an economy efficiently isn’t just dispersed – it doesn’t exist until it’s created by the market, which central planners seek to eliminate. The relative values people place on goods and services are essential information, generated by countless transactions and interactions in the marketplace.
David Henderson
Oct 9 2024 at 4:05pm
You wrote:
Well said.
Kevin Dick
Oct 9 2024 at 4:26pm
In software, we talk about a “single point of failure” when designing centralized systems. I once used Hayek to solve a very tricky and economically valuable software problem, avoiding a single point of failure.
We were at a startup building a global workflow management system for apparel manufacturing. A very complex problem relative to typical software of the time, but childishly simple relative to the economy as a whole.
The CTO laid out a centralized management algorithm for making sure workflows proceeded as designed and all dependencies were satisfied top-down. Now, the CTO was at least as smart as I am and undoubtedly far more experienced in algorithm design. But I pointed out that this approach meant that the algorithm would be incredibly complicated. A single programming error or case unaccounted for could grind all workflows to a halt in a cascade. Moreover, if the central server running the algorithm went down or became unreachable, no work could move anywhere in the world. The dreaded single point of failure.
He acknowledged the problem but pointed out that we were on a tight deadline and this was the standard and straightforward solution. I asked him to give me 24 hours.
Then, inspired by Hayek, I devised a system where each piece of work knew it’s current state, the next step in the process, and the dependencies on other steps to get to the next step. It then interrogated whatever local server it happened to be on as to whether it could find the results of the dependent steps and, if so, execute the current step. Now, if any part of the system could theoretically complete a step, it would, regardless of the state of the rest of the system and the progress in independent steps. Though obviously if large parts of the system broke down, work still couldn’t proceed
The next day, he listened to my proposal and said something along the lines of, “That is much simpler and more robust. Very clever. Let’s do it.” But all I really did was take the Hayekian perspective. After I did that, figuring out the local algorithm was pretty easy..
For me, the cool part of this experience was that, at one point while I was thinking about it, I could clearly picture in my mind these pieces of work finding their way based on their local knowledge rather than being tied to one central point.
David Henderson
Oct 9 2024 at 8:09pm
Wow! Fantastic story! I think you should write this up in more detail somewhere. I’ll give you a free edit, not that you necessarily need one.
Kevin Dick
Oct 10 2024 at 1:42pm
That is very kind on two fronts. That you think it’s worthy of a wider audience and that you’d help edit. (Third Iron Law of Writing: always appreciate a good edit.)
While the absolute value to me of following your suggestion is high, I am currently blessed enough that the opportunity cost is nevertheless too great! Perhaps some time in the future.
David Henderson
Oct 10 2024 at 4:54pm
That would be great!
Kat Messer
Oct 11 2024 at 1:54pm
The best answers come from the unlikeliest of places sometimes and that’s the fun part about life. I understand the pain as a fellow technologist. As an independent researcher now, I work on these complex life-changing things for people in healthcare and the level of care needed not to eff up someone’s life is huge. It’s always worth it when things get to market though 🙂
Kevin Corcoran
Oct 9 2024 at 4:59pm
I suspect what came to mind is related to “the acquisition of such practical knowledge” possessed by the repairman. It’s not that the solution he offered was somehow “objectively” simple and thus $69.95 was charging too much. Instead he was able to find a solution simply (to him) because of his accumulated experience and the practical knowledge gained from such experience, and it was the benefit of that accumulated experience and practical knowledge you paid for.
David Henderson
Oct 9 2024 at 8:10pm
Bingo!
I think it was Peter Drucker who said, when someone balked at his 4-digit hourly rate for consulting, “You’re not paying $5,000 for one hour; you’re paying $5,000 for 30 years.”
Monte
Oct 10 2024 at 12:13pm
Central planning based on statistical aggregates, in either case, is maladaptive. Agriculture – unlike manufacturing, which takes place in a more controlled environment – is particularly vulnerable to unpredictable circumstances (ie. changing weather conditions, pest infestations, market demands, etc.). Simply put, central planning lacks the flexibility required to effectively respond to change.
David Henderson
Oct 10 2024 at 4:55pm
You nailed it!
Monte
Oct 10 2024 at 5:45pm
You’ve been an excellent teacher, sir! Incidentally, wouldn’t you agree that Hayek’s reasoning dovetails nicely with John Tukey’s notion of an uncomfortable science and Thomas Khun’s paradigm shift in the natural sciences?
Howard Croy
Oct 10 2024 at 12:42pm
The other advantage of distributed decision-making as opposed to central planning is what happens when things go wrong. In a distributed system if one persons solution is superior and produces better results, everyone around him will see that and attempt to copy and improve that solution to arrive at better and more efficient Flows of production. In a central planning system when things go wrong there is now often an entrenched bureaucracy that insists on staying with the incorrect and inefficient decision-making framework. They will insist that they simply need to slightly modify their ideas, have the power to affect more of their inputs, or simply need more money to implement their Superior process. Distributed systems are much better at self improvement and minimizing the costs of inefficient and incorrect processes.
Cyril Morong
Oct 10 2024 at 12:52pm
Great post, David
When I was teaching, on the first day of the semester I would say things like:
If you are applying for a job, you don’t call the Department of Labor in Washington and ask them where you should apply for a job. You decide where to apply for a job
If you need to buy groceries, you don’t call the Department of Commerce and ask which store to go to. You decide where to shop
If you own a bakery, you don’t call the Department of Agriculture each day ask them if you should make bagels or donuts. The bakery decides what to make
Then I would say something like “Its total chaos out there, everyone is doing whatever they want. But somehow things get done in an orderly fashion and we get, for the most part, the right products produced in the right quantities” One of the things we will study this semester is how markets make this happen
David Henderson
Oct 10 2024 at 4:55pm
I wish I had thought of those examples when I was teaching.
Great job, Cyril.
Cyril Morong
Oct 10 2024 at 4:59pm
Thanks David!
Cyril Morong
Oct 10 2024 at 12:53pm
When I would later have the class play Vernon Smith’s supply and demand game and we looked at the average price once the game was over, we saw that it was pretty close to what I predicted (based on where I knew the supply and demand curves intersected).
Then I would say that is a great result because we avoid surpluses and shortages. And it would be very hard for a government bureaucrat to set the price correctly for the many thousands of products we have in our economy because no one knows the positions of the supply and demand curves for all of those products (and those curves are always moving)
Cyril Morong
Oct 10 2024 at 5:00pm
I found this at the Cafe Hayek blog earlier today (they posted it many years ago)
David Henderson
Oct 10 2024 at 6:00pm
It fits beautifully.
David Seltzer
Oct 10 2024 at 6:58pm
David: Really grand post. Hayek’s syntax is difficult and requires careful reading. Your explanations make his work so much more clear. Managers of business enterprises are also planners. They too face the insufficiencies of knowledge and information, the Law of Large Numbers, (LLN), per Jon Murphy’s suggestion, indicates that, with a sufficiently diverse economy, planning errors will tend to net out and not have macroeconomic effects. For example, a restaurant may fail but others won’t. In a socialist regime, the central planner is the sole designer. Some individual planners in markets will fail but will not create systemic problems. By contrast, a central planning network would.
Herb
Oct 11 2024 at 12:22am
Great review! It has been some years since I read this piece. With your notes in hand, I will read it again.
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