Peter Navarro is director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, a White House agency created by President Trump, and one of the latter’s main trade advisers. He is a mystery: despite an economics Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University, he seems ignorant of economics. What he now says contradicts virtually everything he wrote in his 1984 book, The Policy Game: How Special Interests and Ideologues Are Stealing America, where he defended free markets and attacked protectionism with standard economic arguments. His Wall Street Journal op-ed of May 28 (“A Tariff Issue on Which Free and Fair Traders Can Agree”) illustrates his current arguments or lack thereof.
The keystone of his claims in this op-ed is the distinction between “pure free trader” and “fair, reciprocal and balanced trader.” The latter concept is at best underdetermined and at worst absurd. There have been as many definitions of “fair” as there have been political theorists and moral philosophers. Is it “fair trade” that American producers have a big advantage as they master the language of international trade better than their German or Vietnamese competitors? Isn’t that the sort of “trade barrier” that Navarro said should be compensated by a tariff in order for trade to be “reciprocal”? Reciprocity is usually a mere excuse for protectionism. As for being “balanced,” trade is generally unbalanced, especially bilaterally: you don’t sell as much to your butcher as you buy from him.
A statocrat who says he wants “fair, reciprocal and balanced trade” really says that he wants the power to prevent his subjects from importing what he or his supporters (like steel executives and trade unions) want them to import. (“Statocrat” comes from an old French word re-actualized by Bertrand de Jouvenel in his book On Power to label somebody whose power and only power comes from the position he occupies in the State apparatus.) A protectionist statocrat will never find that trade is really fair, reciprocal, or balanced. It would be as useful to replace “fair, reciprocal, and balanced” with “smurfy.”
Navarro repeats, but a bit impressionistically this time, his idea that imports “don’t contribute to gross domestic product” (emphasis his). He used to say instead that they subtract from GDP, based on an accounting identity that cannot be used to show that for the simple reason that imports are not part of GDP. (My latest EconLog post on this topic provides further explanations and sources.) This time, instead of using an accounting identity incorrectly interpreted, Navarro seems to invoke a theory instead—which is the beginning of wisdom. But it is a vague theory that leads him to the same conclusion:
But because imports don’t contribute to gross domestic product, unfair trade reduces growth, and narrowing the trade deficit through higher exports and lower imports boosts growth.
This is a muddled statement, to say the least. If imports don’t contribute to GDP, how does this imply that unfair trade reduces growth? And if “unfair” trade reduces growth, why would “fair” trade increase it instead of decreasing it less or having no effect? How would narrowing the trade deficit boost the growth of GDP, of which the trade deficit is no part? Some Keynesian theory can probably answer these questions, but Navarro should say so, explain it, and admit that he is as Keynesian as the wicked Democrats. (Don Boudreaux also criticizes Navarro’s op-ed in a Café Hayek post.)
It as if Navarro were just throwing at his bête noire, the trade deficit, a near-random sequence of words reminiscent of postmodern talk. The trade deficit was a standard fear before the 18th century. But about two centuries and a half ago, Adam Smith, following David Hume, criticized this mercantilist (or protectionist) doctrine in The Wealth of Nations:
Among all the absurd speculations that have been propagated concerning the balance of trade, it has never been pretended that either the country loses by its commerce with the town, or the town by that with the country which maintains it. …
Nothing, however, can be more absurd than this whole doctrine of the balance of trade, upon which, not only these restraints [upon the importation of goods], but almost all the other regulations of commerce are founded. …
There is no commercial country in Europe of which the approaching ruin has not frequently been foretold by the pretended doctors of this system [mercantilism], from an unfavourable balance of trade. … [I]t does not appear that any one nation in Europe has been in any respect impoverished by this cause.
I wrote more about the Navarro mystery in the Fall 2018 issue of Regulation and proposed some charitable hypotheses to explain his behavior. I tried again in an EconLog post. What did I miss?
READER COMMENTS
Jon Murphy
Jun 2 2019 at 10:23pm
You’re looking for a charitable interpretation of his behavior, but I think his own words explain him the best:
“My function, really, as an economist is to try to provide the underlying analytics that confirm [President Trump’s] intuition. And his intuition is always right in these matters.”
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-08/after-defeating-cohn-trump-s-trade-warrior-is-on-the-rise-again?fbclid=IwAR2eUpYVM8ke0QF6237AkQUGIKGaNmfZyj9y4BHh5sH0vhbBADxX_Z-1RbM
Mark Bahner
Jun 3 2019 at 10:53pm
Ay caramba! That can’t be good for the profession!
Pierre Lemieux
Jun 2 2019 at 10:58pm
Very interesting, Jon. I had not seen this.
This raises one supplementary question: Why did he choose to be Trump’s mouthpiece instead of Sanders’ or Clinton’s? He had been a Democrat before, and Sanders and Clinton were and are as protectionist as Trump (albeit a bit more astute). Of course, he may just have happened to bet on the right horse. Another hypothesis would be that Trump could be more easily persuaded to start a trade war, if not a real war, which China–a goal that Navarro seems to have been pursuing for more than a decade. (This relates to my previous EconLog post on “Rare Earths: Make Trade, Not War.”)
Jon Murphy
Jun 2 2019 at 11:13pm
Good question. I’m not sure. It’s possible he’d have been able to slide into a Sanders administration as easily given Sanders’ views on trade are nearly identical to Trump’s. Clinton, not so much.
Perhaps he sought out Trump given how easily manipulated Trump is? Don’t know. That’s speculative.
Pierre Lemieux
Jun 2 2019 at 11:31pm
Yes. It has been said that Trump is overly influenced by the last person he met. If you can get close enough to Trump in his court at the right moment, 90% of the persuasion job is done. (And you are probably right about Clinton, who is not an accomplished ignoramus.)
Benjamin Cole
Jun 3 2019 at 8:49am
I am keeping an open mind regarding Peter Navarro and Donald Trump, and so-called “free trade.”
I’ll say one thing for Trump: He does not pick his adversaries wisely.
The most powerful and influential commercial enterprises of all time are today’s supranational corporations—-and they are able to pour unlimited funds into trade groups, lobby groups. media, academia, foundations, think tans and even directly into political campaigns. The supranationals, which are defined as properly amoral by Milton Friedman, have also entered into daily and deep commercial alliance with the Communist Party of China, the most powerful political party of all time.
And Trump is giving them the finger.
The stateless multinationals have effectively converted the US security establishment, which is supposed to be about national defense, into global guard service for multinationals (but fantastically expensive and paid for by US taxpayers).
Free-trade theory is interesting, although probably becoming of antiquarian interest. The IMF posits chronic and large US current account trade deficits lead to bloated asset values in the US (remember, those axiomatic inflows of hundreds of billions of dollars), and a possible asset value bubble-burst and then financial collapse.
You know, like 2008.
Jon Murphy
Jun 3 2019 at 9:08am
Given the “supranationals” are siding with Trump, indeed demanding his tariff actions, I call into question your two main claims: 1) That the “supranationals” are “[t]he most powerful and influential commercial enterprises of all time” (if they were really all-powerful, why need an alliance to begin with? makes them seem rather impotent, actually) and 2) That they are in alliance with the CCP given the billions in lobbying funds for US tariffs, regulations, and other things requiring American to buy their products (or punishing those who do not) like Whirlpool, US Steel, Carrier, etc have all extorted from the Administration and the American people. I mean, your #2 directly contradicts the claims you and others have made about IP theft.
Benjamin Cole
Jun 3 2019 at 7:44pm
Jon M— do you really think the Apples, the GM’s, the BlackRocks, the Amazons, and Walmarts, are siding with Don Trump?
Jon Murphy
Jun 3 2019 at 7:51pm
Think? No. We know they are.
Jon Murphy
Jun 3 2019 at 9:09am
Indeed, Ben, your prefix of “supra” indicates there is no such alliance.
Pierre Lemieux
Jun 3 2019 at 11:57am
One small point, Benjamin (you know my critiques of the other ones): “The supranationals, which are defined as properly amoral by Milton Friedman” is not a correct description of Friedman’s thought. He argued that all businesses tend to be amoral because the owner(s) directly bear the cost of his (their) morals. For example, discriminating against a segment of manpower as productive as another would reduce profits. On the normative side, he criticized the idea that companies should be moral (except for common honesty). Today, the most moral (and non-friedmanite) companies, that is, the ones that fall the most deeply into the moral fads of the day (CSR, sustainability, etc.) are multinationals, probably because they are dead scared of the state (I touched on some of these topics in my post on The Political Firm.)
Benjamin Cole
Jun 3 2019 at 7:51pm
Pierre L. — You are correct, Milton Friedman indeed said that all corporations (or businesses) are properly amoral. Indeed, I agree with this assessment, in that publicly held companies have fiduciary obligations to shareholders that trump all other concerns save that they must comply with law.
If slavery is legal and profitable, then we would expect corporations to embrace slavery as a business model.
And certainly the multinationals, which I call supranationals, have no problem getting into bed with the Communist Party of China.
Jon Murphy
Jun 3 2019 at 7:55pm
It is necessary for an action to be profitable and legal to justify a business model, but it is not sufficient.
Firms will choose the model that maximizes profits, not just anything that produces profits. There are countless alternatives for any given action, any number of which can be profitable. Given that only one choice can be made, we need to think about what people will choose. If we rely simply on your assertion that it is profitability and legality, then we must conclude that firms act randomly when choosing business models.
Benjamin Cole
Jun 4 2019 at 1:06am
Jon M.:
Let me clarify: If slavery is legal, and maximizes profits, then we can expect corporations to properly embrace slavery as a business model.
A corporation might embrace slavery for only a portion of labor force, alternatively finding indentured servitude, contractual employment, or even fire-at-will-and-quit-at-will maximizes profits for other parts of their labor pool. Child labor might maximize profits as well, if legal.
Benjamin Cole
Jun 4 2019 at 2:41am
Not a polite topic of discussion, but in a stateless world, if profits in a brothel were maximized by slavery, then then we would expect to see that business model.
In fact, that is a rather tried and true model down through the ages…Pierre L. suggests slave-brothels would not exist unless sanctioned by a state, akin to slavery in the old South…but seems to me a lawless society would have more such business models….
Jon Murphy
Jun 4 2019 at 11:28am
Sure, but that’s an irrelevant statement. Part of the point here is that slavery is not profit-maximizing; indeed, it tends to be profit-reducing (see, for example, Gary Becker’s “The Economics of Discrimination” or Alchian and Kessel’s article: “Competition, Monopoly, and the Pursuit of Pecuniary Gains“).
Not necessarily. This is only true if we assume, contrary to evidence, that the state is the only source of morality and law.
Jon Murphy
Jun 3 2019 at 9:16am
This is a point I routinely make in my classes when I lecture on supposed exceptions to free trade and operationalizing these exceptions. In theory, it is easy to design a policy where some “unfair advantage” is corrected. In reality, identifying these barriers is difficult.
My favorite example is rule of law. The US, compared to many countries, is very non-corrupt. We have a good judicial system that is relatively unbiased and even-handed. Contracts are reasonably enforced. Bribes aren’t really required to do business. All this reduces the cost of doing business in the US compared to other countries, which is why many firms do business here.
Since the judicial system is run by the government, one can argue it counts as a “subsidy” to reduce costs for businesses. Thus, an analyst could use rule of law in the US to justify tariffs against US products.
Is that also what Navarro means when he demands reciprocity? What about our relatively educated workforce (also subsidized, BTW)? Or our relatively good infrastructure? All of these would justify, in theory, subsidies on American products by foreign nations given the loose, vague, and indeterminate language of Navarro. The theory gives no guidance about what is counted and what is not, which means it is left up to the analyst. Thus, talking about “fair trade” is not as precise as Navarro makes it seem.
Pierre Lemieux
Jun 3 2019 at 12:03pm
Good points, Jon. Add that public expenditures on education is higher in the US is larger than in most countries (including Germany!).
I would say that your statement that “talking about ‘fair trade’ is not as precise as Navarro makes it seem” is the academic understatement of the decade.
Jon Murphy
Jun 3 2019 at 12:24pm
I literally laughed out loud when I read this. I guess I am good at understatements 🙂
dede
Jun 3 2019 at 10:48pm
For as long as it will last… Ask foreign banks (BNP) or technology companies (Huwawei) if they would not have been better off, should they have skipped the US and their disregard for extra-territoriality. I suspect not yet but the direction of the judicial system in the US does not help my optimism!
Jon Murphy
Jun 3 2019 at 11:01pm
Sure, but it’s all “as compared to what?” The US has issues, but the alternatives are not necessarily better.
Either way, the larger point I was making about the difficulty in assigning precisely what is fair and not, remains
Benjamin Cole
Jun 7 2019 at 10:25pm
I guess Pierre L. is breathing easier today.
Trump is backing off of his 5% tariffs on Mexico imports, so I guess war with Mexico is less likely.
Whew! Close one….
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