In this video interview, Dr. Joel Kettner, formerly the Manitoba government’s chief public health officer, presents some striking statistics and commentary.
I checked his numbers and it’s clear that the interview is current. The interviewer starts by stating the “flatten the curve” rationale. But look at his numbers, which I confirmed here, and see if what’s going on has anything to do with “flattening the curve,” even in Manitoba’s single-payer system of health care.
Number of cases: 4,500. (Actually, it’s 4,532.) That’s 1 in 300 population.
Number of deaths: 58. That’s 1 in 25,000 population and less than 1% of all deaths.
Number of ICU admissions: 15, which is 20% of all ICU beds. In a typical flu season, the majority of ICU beds are taken up by people with acute lung injury or pneumonia.
Number of hospitalizations: 83. This is < 3% of all beds.
Percent usage of ventilator capacity: < 1%.
80% of deaths in Canada are of people over the age of 85 and residents of personal care homes. (This was right at the end where he felt rushed, so it’s possible that he meant “or,” not “and.”)
Watch, at about the point where 2:20 is left, how he makes the point that so many of us have been making: look at the big picture and look at tradeoffs. The lockdowns might well be causing more deaths than they’re saving. (He doesn’t go that far, but I wonder if he would.)
Why did I choose Manitoba? The main reason is that that’s where I grew up. The second reason is that Dr. Kettner made his points more clearly and succinctly than I’ve typically seen.
HT2 Cameron Neumann.
READER COMMENTS
Alan Goldhammer
Oct 28 2020 at 3:02pm
I’m not sure what the point is here. Manitoba other than Winnipeg is a largely rural area (the next biggest city has a population of 50K according to Wikipedia. Since most of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is travel related, one would expect case counts to be low there. I don’t know how popular Winnipeg where over 1/2 the provincial population live is as a destination as compared to say Calgary.
If you look at comparable population states in the US, New Hampshire, Maine, and Montana are the most likely comparators. Montana are having large outbreaks of the virus while Maine and New Hampshire are not. All three are popular with travelers but have had different outbreak levels.
I’m not sure what the point is here. Everyone recognizes that there are differences in areas. That Manitoba has seen few problems with the hospital system is great and let’s hope it stays that way as the winter months come and influenza mixes into the equation. Things are different in Toronto and Montreal and one would expect responses would be different as well.
Irene
Oct 28 2020 at 4:29pm
The point here is that the province of Manitoba is freaking out over the numbers. There is panic everywhere and this sane individual, Dr. Joel Kettner is one of very few to explain the facts to us as they have never been told before. Dr. Kettner is a well-respected member of our community and was a previous chief public health officer for Manitoba so he has some experience in these matters.
David Henderson
Oct 28 2020 at 4:56pm
First, welcome back, Alan.
Second, you write: “I’m not sure what the point is here.” Oh, I thought I made it clear, but I’ll state it more clearly. The argument is still “flatten the curve” even though the curve is very flat and very low. This gets back to a point I made to you in a response to a comment of yours earlier this week: Pick a lane. If your concern is the one you expressed on the earlier post–having hospital facilities available–don’t lose sight of that concern.
Third, you write: “Things are different in Toronto and Montreal and one would expect responses would be different as well.” And yet, at least from afar, the differences don’t look great. Winnipeg appears to be about as locked down as Montreal and Toronto.
robc
Oct 28 2020 at 5:25pm
And a perfect situation for federalism. Decisions should be being made at the state or even county/city level.
Bruce Berry
Oct 29 2020 at 3:00pm
I live in Winnipeg. I think Manitoba is in fact isolated in terms of infectious spread, but it is looking like our geographically mediated flattening is just delaying the inevitable. We essentially had no first wave, compared to the rest of Canada. And the province shut borders before it really got circulating here. There are undoubtedly regions like this all over the globe where any virus will take time to arrive. Seems to work the same with Hollywood culture. Kettner is spot on.
JFA
Oct 28 2020 at 8:15pm
“The lockdowns might well be causing more deaths than they’re saving.” Could you provide some links and evidence for this claim?
David Henderson
Oct 29 2020 at 10:55am
Sweden.
JFA
Oct 29 2020 at 11:54am
I think that extraordinary claim will need to be backed up by more than one example. Your claim is that lockdowns are leading to more deaths, but it seems like it is the spread of the virus that is leading to more deaths (measured by official counts and excess deaths). There is a positive correlation between increasing cases and increasing deaths. Minnesota, Arkansas, Montana, North Dakota, Louisiana, Oregon (basically most US states), Germany, France, Spain, UK, etc. There are certainly other factors that affect death rates and rising cases won’t necessarily explain all variation in deaths. Recognizing that increases in Covid infections lead to increases in deaths doesn’t mean we should have lock downs. It might be the case that lockdowns *might* just shift deaths into the future rather than preventing (though it seems that it is much better to catch Covid now than six months ago), but the claim that lockdowns are *causing* more deaths than Covid requires more than just pointing a finger at one example.
JFA
Oct 29 2020 at 12:46pm
“but the claim that lockdowns are *causing* more deaths than Covid requires more than just pointing a finger at one example.” Ignore this point. That overstates your claim, apologies.
Bruce Berry
Oct 29 2020 at 3:09pm
The CDC estimates 300,000 excess deaths in the USA so far for 2020. About 200,000 are covid related, but only 4% are directly attributed to covid alone; “dying from” versus “dying with“. So 100,000 excess from ? – probably the lockdown measures – but we just don’t know. Problem is, the 190,000 who died with covid had life expectancies measured in weeks or months, but the 100,000 had decades ahead of them. And yes of course every single death is a tragedy , but public policy must concern itself with the overall wellbeing of millions. The numbers are only starting to emerge on those excess deaths – from suicide, domestic abuse, child abuse, drug OD, cancer treatment delay, etc.
Thomas Hutcheson
Oct 29 2020 at 11:20am
I think Mr. Goldhammer means, if you believe Manitoba has not followed the correct policy (I believe that is a fair interpretation of your post), then what IS the correct policy.
David Henderson
Oct 29 2020 at 3:00pm
Maybe he means that, but I’ll let him answer for himself.
Todd Kreider
Oct 30 2020 at 3:33pm
Wikipedia shows that there has been no recent outbreak in Montana or Manitoba. Instead, Covid-19 cases were very low in late spring and early summer until July 19 in both regions.
Montana cases increase per day on average
Jul 19 to Jul 25……2.1%
Aug 15 to Aug 21……2.0%
Sep 15 to Sep 21……2.1%
Oct 15 to Oct 21……3.0%
Oct 22 to Oct 28……2.6%
Manitoba cases increase per day on average
Jul 19 to Jul 25……2.0%
Aug 15 to Aug 21……4.3%
Sep 15 to Sep 21……2.0%
Oct 15 to Oct 21……2.9%
Oct 22 to Oct 28……3.7%
Todd Kreider
Oct 30 2020 at 3:45pm
Montana has 0.0003 per capita Covid-19 deaths whereas Manitoba has 0.00005 per capita Covid-19 deaths. It seems like the only way there can be six times higher deaths in Montana is if Covid-19 deaths are counted differently even if maybe not the only reason for such a large difference. (Canada has 2.6 times fewer Covid-19 deaths than the U.S.)
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