Reason magazine has an article that argues for the existence of free will. I don’t plan to debate that issue, but I am a bit disturbed by the implicit claim that the argument for libertarianism is stronger in a world with free will than in a world of determinism. If that’s their argument, it’s clearly wrong. The argument for libertarianism has nothing to do with the existence or non-existence of free will. Here’s Reason:
What is free will? Can a being whose brain is made up of physical stuff actually make undetermined choices?
In Free Agents: How Evolution Gave Us Free Will, the Trinity College Dublin neuroscientist Kevin J. Mitchell argues that evolution has shaped living creatures such that we can push back when the physical world impinges upon us. The motions of nonliving things—air, rocks, planets, stars—are entirely governed by physical forces; they move where they are pushed. Our ability to push back, Mitchell argues, allows increasingly complex creatures to function as agents that can make real choices, not “choices” that are predetermined by the flux of atoms.
Sorry, but “choices” made by the flux of atoms in peoples’ brains are real choices, regardless of whether people have free will or not. Determinists don’t argue that people don’t make real choices, they argue that the outcome of those choices is determined by a mix of brain chemistry and external stimuli. Libertarian determinists favor a free society because they believe that better choices will be made if governments don’t impose regulations that prevent people from making choices that their mix of brain chemistry and external stimuli view as being in their interest. The term freedom in a free will sense is vastly different from freedom in a political sense.
Reason continues:
How can that be? After all, just like air and rocks, bacteria and sharks and aardvarks and people are made of physical stuff. Determinism holds that, per the causal laws of nature, the unfolding of the universe is inexorable and unbranching, such that it can have only one past and one future. Human beings do not escape the laws of nature, so any and all of our “choices” have been predetermined from the beginning of the universe.
This view poses a moral problem: How can people be held accountable for their actions if they had no choice but to behave the way they did?
This is a non-sequitur. We hold people accountable because doing so provides an external stimuli that nudges their decisions in a more socially optimal direction. Thus we threaten potential bank robbers with long prison terms in order to deter people from robbing banks. Those deterrents make people less likely to rob banks, regardless of whether the free will or the determinist position is true. Even if determinism were shown to be true, we would not legalize murder on the mistaken assumption that killers should not be held accountable.
It’s dangerous to tie your ideology to scientific models that might be discredited. Some progressives deny that there are innate differences in IQ. Wiser progressives argue that their ideology makes sense even if innate IQ differences exist. In the old days, some Christians denied that the Earth went around the sun. When this view was discredited, it pushed some scientists toward atheism. I would hate to see libertarians tie their ideology to the hypothesis of free will. If determinism were later shown to be true, this would (unfairly) tend to discredit libertarianism.
In my view, a free society is best regardless of whether decisions are made by individuals with free will, or brains in flux responding to external stimuli.
READER COMMENTS
Thomas L Hutcheson
Nov 14 2023 at 5:16pm
I agree, but add the codicil that a free society is even better if the individual choices are made in the presence of Pigou taxes/subsidies on negative/positive externalities
Pierre Lemieux
Nov 15 2023 at 11:46am
Thomas: In the long run, Pigou is dead.
robc
Nov 15 2023 at 10:13pm
But Coase lives on!
Pierre Lemieux
Nov 14 2023 at 8:43pm
Scott: Interesting argument on an old issue, but I have what seems to me an obvious (and a bit banal) question. You write:
How can you be sure of that since what “we” would “decide” would also be determined? In fact, if the hypothesis is true, it is already determined, but I am not sure we can say how without a regression to infinity. A similar question concerns the epistemological status of the proof itself.
Scott Sumner
Nov 15 2023 at 1:50am
I’m not “sure” in the sense of 100% confident. Just 99% confident.
Knut P. Heen
Nov 15 2023 at 12:19pm
Some may argue that the argument for locking up murderers is even stronger if they are programmed to murder.
The incentive argument cuts both ways. Suppose we offer you enough money, would you murder your own children? No, of course not, most of us are programmed not to accept that offer due to natural selection. People without children do not get many grandchildren no matter how rich they are.
I am hungry now, even if I want to write more, I have to go home to eat dinner. I think I should be able to go home to eat dinner whether I want to or not.
Scott Sumner
Nov 15 2023 at 12:32pm
“Some may argue that the argument for locking up murderers is even stronger if they are programmed to murder.”
Again, determinists do not believe that people are “programmed to murder”. They believe murder results from a mix of biology and external stimuli. Which is true!!
Mactoul
Nov 14 2023 at 11:08pm
Distinction, if any, between choice and “choice” isn’t clear. Also unclear is how there can be any choice or “choice” in an entirely deterministic world.
However, the Reason article is also dubious regarding evolution of free choice from biology. Animals are not regarded as having free will. Choice doesn’t equate to free will. As Aquinas put it
Stones move by necessity, sheep move by instinct and humans by free will.
It doesn’t mean that humans never move by necessity (e.g. when falling or under influence of drink), or by instinct. But humans possess an additional power of free will where choices are rationally evaluated. This is, of course, not available to animals and hence animals, while not entirely under necessity (hence make choices), don’t make free choices and are said to lack free will.
Mactoul
Nov 14 2023 at 11:15pm
There can be no argument in a deterministic world,, for libertarianism or for anything else.
If the outcome is pre-determined, then where does choice come in.
Matthias
Nov 15 2023 at 12:25am
I agree with your criticism.
To go off on a tangent: deterministic still doesn’t necessarily mean predictable. And non-determinism doesn’t mean non-predictable.
An example for the latter: the sum of a large number of dice rolls is fairly predictable, even if individual die rolls are not. Same for a direct current flowing through a copper wire: individual electrons are best modeled as bouncing around in a biased random walk, but the overall current at the macroscopic level follows Ohm’s law precisely.
Examples for the former are a bit more complicated. You might remember the ‘butterfly effect’:
That means the only way to predict what the system is going to do, is to observe the system itself (or a perfect electronic replica).
That’s very different to the example of Ohm’s law above, where you don’t need to model individual electrons, and still get a precise prediction.
Turing, Gödel and Church proved essentially the same for a wide variety of computer systems: in general, the only way to predict what a computer program will do is to run it. Even if the computer program is completely deterministic: there’s no general shortcut that can predict what an arbitrary program will do quicker than running it.
Brains are at least as complicated than computer programs [citation needed], so the same observation applies to them as well.
Mactoul
Nov 15 2023 at 1:25am
Our feeling that we choose, that we could have done otherwise than what we actually did– this feeling is far more fundamental and solidly rooted than the philosophical doctrines of determinism or any derivation of long chains of reasoning.
This point is quite apart from the real philosophical defense of free will.
Matthias
Nov 18 2023 at 5:06am
Sure, but so is my feeling that the earth is firm ground, and that the sun and the moon orbit around it.
Scott Sumner
Nov 15 2023 at 1:49am
I don’t think people understand what’s meant by determinism. It has nothing to do with people making choices or not making choices. Look at the world today as it is. That’s exactly how a deterministic world would look. Nothing changes if the world is deterministic. People still make choices.
Mactoul
Nov 15 2023 at 4:15am
To choose something implies potential existence of alternatives that could have been chosen.
The act of choosing brings about the actual existence of what was chosen.
This isn’t the language of the dogma of determinism, to say the least.
Dylan
Nov 15 2023 at 8:57am
The only way I see to show that free will exists is by multiple universes. That there exists a universe where one made a different choice and brought into actual existence that world, instead of this one. Otherwise, if there is only one future and one past, choice doesn’t make sense.
Alex Brajkovic
Nov 15 2023 at 6:55am
The issue is purely technical.Software in our brain can not comprehend something as uncaused. The sole purpose of the brain, his only function is to ask “Why? What is the reason/cause?” This is the process of sense making or explanation and two principles are involved.1. Principle of sufficient Reason (everything must have a reason or explanation)2. Principle of non-contradiction (you break problem into smaller ones with first principle until you reach contradiction)Brain is constantly in a loop of recursively asking “Why”? For him Free Will is just as nonsense as square circle is. Whether there are reason for some choice or brain just comes up with justifications is another thing. Saying “it’s just so” is never satisfactory explanation.
Mactoul
Nov 15 2023 at 8:01am
This nudge should be rationally determined to be efficient. Simultaneously, it is determined by the brain chemistry and stimuli on the nudger. There is no necessity for the both processes to coincide.
Thus, argument against free will is self-contradictory. The person making the argument exempts himself from necessity prevailing everywhere else.
Scott Sumner
Nov 15 2023 at 12:36pm
“There is no necessity for the both processes to coincide.”
So public policymakers might make bad regulations?
Yeah . . . .
Scott Sumner
Nov 15 2023 at 12:42pm
Everyone. This post isn’t about whether free will exists. Philosophers have debated this for centuries and you won’t resolve it with simplistic arguments in a comment section of a post. The point is that this philosophical question has no implications for libertarianism. Political freedom is desirable regardless of whether people have free will in a philosophical sense.
Everyone agrees that people make choices. Everyone. Let’s make good choices.
Imagine going to a restaurant and looking at the menu. You pick an item. That’s a choice. It may be a determined choice or a free will choice, but you’ve picked a food item. You’ve chosen. Now imagine the government bans certain food items. That ban might limit your options and affect your choice. That’s true regardless of whether free will or determinism is true.
The political and philosophical issues are in unrelated categories.
Jose Pablo
Nov 15 2023 at 6:08pm
I don’t want the government limiting my free will (if it is the case) and I don’t want the government modifying the external stimuli that, combined with my biology, determine my behavior in a deterministic world.
Don’t see the difference.
And I would consider them (the politicians) “the worst” (with Hayek) even if they were just responding to their mix of biology and external stimuli in a deterministic way, when enacting new regulations.
I would prefer, though, this profound disdain for politicians of mine, to be the result of my free will and not just my deterministic response to biology and external stimuli.
Aesthetics matter.
robc
Nov 16 2023 at 2:12pm
A determined choice is not actually a choice. You only think you are making a choice.
Henri Hein
Nov 15 2023 at 2:44pm
I agree, but I didn’t read the article that way. It was just a synopsis of Mitchell’s book with a bit of context. Bailey’s last tongue-in-cheek sentence indicates to me he doesn’t necessarily accept Mitchell’s argument.
TGGP
Nov 15 2023 at 3:50pm
Former EconLog blogger Bryan Caplan argued more than a decade ago that political libertarianism goes together with a belief in free-will. I was a skeptic then who still thought of myself as a libertarian, but not too long afterward decided I should “keep my identity small” by not identifying with any political ideology, and go more meta than libertarianism via consequentialism & decentralism.
Scott Sumner
Nov 16 2023 at 11:59am
Bryan’s very smart, but if he said that he’s clearly wrong. Many people misunderstand the free will–determinism debate. It has no testable implications.
robc
Nov 16 2023 at 2:10pm
On this we agree.
Which is why I shall continue to believe in free will. Or it has been determined that I will believe in free will. One or the other.
Jose Pablo
Nov 17 2023 at 6:36pm
If they have no testable implications that means that they are empirically indiscernible and so, have to be considereded ontoligically the same.
Mathias
Nov 18 2023 at 5:14am
There’s one test you could do:
If you could build a machine that exactly predicted someone’s choices in advance, it would be very hard to argue that this person has free will by most definitions of the word.
(I don’t think such a machine could be built, mostly just because reality is chaotic, so very small disturbances in initial conditions can have arbitrarily big impacts much later.
Quantum mechanics is another potential source of ‘random noise’ and said chaotic nature of reality can amplify those tiny fluctuations.
I write ‘potential source’, because eg the Many Worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics makes it a completely deterministic theory.)
TGGP
Nov 18 2023 at 11:19am
Here is a quote from Bryan on the subject:
BC
Nov 16 2023 at 12:02am
In a world with no free will, one need not labor, nor can one decide to labor or not labor, over whether one favors libertarianism because such decision will already be determined by one’s brain chemistry and external stimuli.
One might as well decide to believe in free will because such decision can turn out to have been wrong only if one never had the free will to have made the opposite decision to begin with.
Scott Sumner
Nov 16 2023 at 12:01pm
“In a world with no free will, one need not labor, nor can one decide to labor or not labor,”
Wrong. Even in a deterministic universe people still need to make decisions.
I make decisions all the time. Even dogs and cats make decisions.
robc
Nov 16 2023 at 2:07pm
Do you make decisions or do you only think you make decisions?
If you are actually making a decision, then you have free will.
Jose Pablo
Nov 17 2023 at 6:34pm
Then my dog and my cat both have free will. They have alternative course of actions at their disposal and decide to follow just one of those.
Or how do you refer to what they do? (if not “deciding”)
robc
Nov 18 2023 at 12:17am
Its quite possible some animals have free will also.
Jim Glass
Nov 18 2023 at 11:35pm
Of course cats have free will. There can be no evil without free will. As to the rest of us…
Sabine following Wittgenstein: Of course people calculate decisions all the time. And there is no way to know what a decision will be until the calculation is done and the decision is made. This leaves the illusion that the decision resulting from the calculation could have been different.
But as she also says, “It doesn’t matter”.
Jim Glass
Nov 16 2023 at 12:06am
The free will debate seems more pointless to me all the time. For one thing, try to form a rigorous scientific definition of “free will” and get others to agree. Good luck settling anything even there.
Physicists as a group have been determinists since the arrival of Newton’s clockwork universe, and this hasn’t changed today. The world’s best known female quantum physicist is not a mere determinist but a “super-determinist” and explains why she believes free will can’t exist, discussing the Libertarian take on free will at minute 11:20….
OTOH, physicists don’t know a whole lot of important things. In my lifetime they didn’t know that 95% of the universe even existed, and they still don’t know what it is. They don’t know what consciousness is (which might inspire modesty in declaring how it works). I could make a list down my arm. So perhaps they should resist the universal urge to reach great conclusions outside their field of expertise. “I don’t know” are the most under-used words in the English language and can improve most conversations, as Sabine herself has tartly pointed out to other physicists. (“You not knowing what’s that in the sky doesn’t mean it’s space aliens, and not knowing how the wave function collapses doesn’t mean there are infinite universes. It likely means you should just say, ‘I don’t know'”.)
OTOOH, if we follow the sciences, plural, we should note that there is a mountain of evidence in psychology that the social sciences that free will — by the definition, ‘I can choose to control and change my actions for my own benefit’ — does exist. Persons (and groups, communities) with this belief perform far better in life than those who don’t, and interventions that create this belief improve outcomes.
That’s data too. And while this definition is different from what the physicists use, the implications are a good deal more practically significant than the physicists’: “what I will choose on the lunch menu today was determined at the Big Bang.”
All of which, for me, boils down whatever controversy there is over all this to Pascal’s Wager with “free will” substituted for “God”. You can’t ever know if it exists but you’d better really believe it does. If you believe in it and it does exist you win big — if it doesn’t you lose nothing as your entire life (including your non-belief) was pre-set at the Big Bang. While if you don’t believe in it and it doesn’t exist you win nothing — but if it does, you screw yourself royally of your own free will. “And the rest is noise…”
robc
Nov 16 2023 at 2:05pm
OTOOH is better abbreviated as OTGH*.
*obligtory sci-fi reference when needing 3 hands
Matthias
Nov 18 2023 at 5:16am
To be honest, super determinism is a pretty silly supposition. I don’t even know whether it has any testable predictions.
However, the many worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics is also deterministic.
Jim Glass
Nov 18 2023 at 11:41pm
And today Sabine gave us quite a list! Will we ever figure out these things? Or, Is Science Dying?
robc
Nov 16 2023 at 9:31am
Determinism is a self-defeating philosophy.
It may be true, but that doesn’t change my statement above.
Lets assume it is. I happen to fall on the free will side of the debate, but why? If determinism is true, I was determined to support free will. Arguing about it wont do any good, because even if I change my mind, that means I was determined to change my mind. And there is no point in me saying “arguing about it wont do any good” because whether we argue about it or not is determined.
So, whats the point?
On the other hand, an argument could be made that determinism is only MOSTLY true. Maybe about 99.99% of our decisions are determined, but we have a tiny iota of free will. I think there is a lot of empirical evidence that this may be the case. But if so, free will wins the debate! Even the smallest bit opens the entire free will can of worms (what is the source? Is there a soul separate from the body? etc, etc?).
Scott H.
Nov 16 2023 at 6:11pm
The answer is determinism all the way down. Free will does not exist. However, nobody has the ability to calculate the position and velocity of all the atoms in your brain/body, nor do they have the ability to move from atomic movements to the higher order effects within the complexity in your nervous system — let alone the input from your five senses.
Therefore it’s best to realize things are determined, but the best way to view your fellow man is as a human being that makes choices (almost just like free will). The free will versus determinism debate gets relevant again when we get to normative concepts like fairness and justice. But even then, it’s often a much smaller domain than people realize. For example, people erroneously believe that if you murder someone, but the universe is determined, then you shouldn’t go to jail.
robc
Nov 17 2023 at 10:44am
To paraphrase Descartes, I choose therefore free will.
I choose to believe in free will, therefore there is free will.
You choose to believe in determinism, therefore there is free will.
I cannot prove that you and I made those choices, you cannot prove that they were determined. But, as you said, its the best way to view your fellow man (and yourself, even more importantly), so I CHOOSE to do so.
Comments are closed.