In many ways, California is the ideal place to build a high-speed rail line. The state has two giant metro areas, separated by 380 miles, which is the “sweet spot” for high-speed rail. A high-speed rail line could (theoretically) cover that distance in less than 2 hours, which makes it competitive with air travel. (The actual proposal was much slower.)
California has many other advantages as well. Governor Jerry Brown was an enthusiastic advocate. The state is completely dominated by the Democratic Party, with the environmental wing of the party being especially powerful. California is home to the world’s wealthiest industry (tech) and is able to impose very high income taxes on the rich without suffering a mass migration to cheaper states, due to its enviable climate and lifestyle. They’ve got enough money.
California is an almost perfect place to build high-speed rail.
And yet it will probably never happen. The new governor has put most of the project on hold, and most experts seem to think this is just a polite way of pulling the plug on the project.
“Right now, there simply isn’t a path to get from Sacramento to San Diego, let alone from San Francisco to L.A. I wish there were. However, we do have the capacity to complete a high-speed rail link between Merced and Bakersfield.”
There are important lessons here for progressives, who have been pushing for exactly this sort of infrastructure project. In short, progressives have not faced up to a number of difficult choices:
1. The choice between strict environmental regulations for major construction projects, and the goal of building environmentally friendly infrastructure.
2. The choice between pro-union labor policies and building affordable infrastructure.
3. The choice between high levels of spending on human services and building infrastructure.
4. The choice between wildly excessive safety regulations, and efficient transport services that are “safe enough”. For instance, it took decades for our transportation regulators to approve lightweight rail cars that had been used in Europe for many years. Penn Station’s Amtrak station has long lines due to utterly useless passenger checks in the terminal, even as “terrorists” could freely board the same train without any ID checks a few miles down the road in Connecticut.)
A society often makes a choice by not making choices. The progressives have chosen to keep intact some wildly excessive regulatory burdens on getting environmental approval for new projects, instead of limiting the environmental review to no more than 6 months. They have chosen to use expensive American union labor and inefficient US builders rather than more efficient foreign builders using labor from China and Bangladesh. They have chosen to spend lots of money on human services, leaving little money for building infrastructure. By making these choices, progressives have implicitly revealed that infrastructure is not a high priority to them. We are not Singapore.
And it’s not just progressives. The long environmental review process caused conservative Orange County to abandon a much needed airport project that had previously been approved by the voters.
In previous posts, I’ve argued that it would be foolish for the federal government to spend lots of money on infrastructure, partly because America no longer knows how to build infrastructure. After the recent California high-speed rail fiasco (which used federal funds), perhaps my critics will better understand my argument.
PS. Matt Yglesias has an excellent account of what went wrong, written from the perspective of a sensible progressive. I think the problems are even deeper, but his critique is quite well informed and full of good observations.
PPS. I reluctantly signed the carbon tax petition today. I say reluctantly, because I oppose the provision that would rebate the revenue to taxpayers. Instead, I’d prefer to use the funds to service our ballooning national debt, i.e. reduce the budget deficit.
READER COMMENTS
Alan Goldhammer
Feb 17 2019 at 1:07pm
It’s bad all over. We are trying to build a 16 mile light rail system in suburban Maryland that will ease traffic issues. The Metro system was set up to bring passengers to downtown DC and not cross county whee there is a real need. Since the project is using an old rail line that was converted into a biking/hiking trail AND goes right through a tony country club’s golf course there was the inevitable litigation. Because of this the project is delayed for a year and will cost an additional $218M. Here is a short Washington Post story on yet another lawsuit (the third) that seeks to bring this to a halt. Meanwhile the hiking/biking trail has been closed for months and cleared. Buildings that stood in the way of the project have all be vacated and in some cases razed.
I wonder if this country can even repair all the bridges that are in danger of failing.
Peter Gordon
Feb 17 2019 at 6:46pm
California is not an ideal place for HSR, Whether in LA or SF, there would be the last-mile problem. Look at the parking lots at and near LAX and at and near SFO. Have these costs been included in the costs cited?
Mark Bahner
Feb 18 2019 at 9:08pm
Autonomous vehicles providing transportation-as-a-service will solve the last-mile problem. But they will also dramatically cut travel times between LA and SF. Within 15 years, people will routinely travel by autonomous vehicles between LA and SF in less than 4 hours. You heard it here first. 😉
Effectively cancelling the project was the best thing to happen to California. Never, never, never incur a huge capital expense in something that will compete with a technology that’s going to revolutionize the industry.
Which leads me to another prediction: Within 30 years, more people will travel between LA and SF by vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) autonomous aircraft launched from former parking lots in and around LA and SF than will travel between LA and SF via runway takeoffs at LAX and SFO. And the travel time for those autonomous VTOL aircraft will easily beat the former proposed “high speed rail.”
Benjamin Cole
Feb 17 2019 at 7:39pm
America cannot build infrastructure and it cannot build housing.
Extensive property ownership rights and zoning also play a dominant role in this inability to construct anything new.
So where do the immigrationists plan to put all the immigrants?
But then there has always been something of an null set in libertarian land: how does infrastructure ever get built?
Mark
Feb 18 2019 at 8:23am
Rail is a type of infrastructure that could be built in a libertarian society, because it could be profitable as people who can use it can be charged fares. For example, Japan’s rail system has been mostly owned and operated by private companies since the 1980s, yet they are profitable, they are still building new lines, and their rail system is considered the best in the world.
Rail would probably be even more feasible in a libertarian society than the US today as it would avoid the political pitfalls discussed in this article and could be built to satisfy riders rather than politicians and unions. Moreover, in a libertarian society, a private rail company would not have to compete with the trillions of dollars worth of car-centric infrastructure constructed by the government and mostly paid for from general taxpayer funds.
Bedarz Iliachi
Feb 19 2019 at 1:24am
And were the train companies never coordinated with the State? Did they buy the required land from private owners all by themselves, without any State intervention?
Commanding heights of any economy are inevitably coordinated with the State. It was true in sailing ships era, it was true in railways era and it is true in the era of social media.
LK Beland
Feb 19 2019 at 10:27am
“I say reluctantly, because I oppose the provision that would rebate the revenue to taxpayers. Instead, I’d prefer to use the funds to service our ballooning national debt, i.e. reduce the budget deficit.”
One issue: down the road, we want GHG emissions to go near zero, which means that eventually, we’ll want carbon tax revenue near zero. However, using carbon tax revenue to reduce the deficit provides a perverse long-term incentive for the government to maintain this source of revenue. Here’s a peer-reviewed paper that explores this idea:
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6e8a/pdf
By rebating it directly to the public, we solve this problem, as the government would not be dependent on the carbon tax revenue to fund its spending.
Scott Sumner
Feb 19 2019 at 6:01pm
LK, They may want to maintain this revenue, but as long as the tax is in effect it discourages carbon use. You could make the same argument regarding cigarette taxes, but those taxes keep discouraging smoking . (I oppose cigarette taxes, btw, but they “work”.)
MarkW
Feb 19 2019 at 10:58am
And it’s not just progressives. The long environmental review process caused conservative Orange County to abandon a much needed airport project that had previously been approved by the voters.
But Orange County is no longer conservative. And were OC’s (former) conservative local government officials really the ones who imposed the environmental regulations that derailed the project? Or were those state and federal regulations?
Scott Sumner
Feb 19 2019 at 5:59pm
The very conservative voters in south Orange County (which is still conservative) stopped the airport.
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