A few weeks ago, I did a post pointing out that the quality of public policy was declining sharply during the 21st century. I see similar arguments all over the place. The Economist has a long article on trends in Latin America that points to a serious deterioration in the quality of governance. Voters there are increasingly choosing really bad candidates on the far left and the far right over more sensible technocrats.
Tyler Cowen has a piece in Bloomberg, suggesting that public attitudes are to blame:
My fear, quite simply, is that we have entered an age in which the popular taste for good political outcomes, and fair political processes, is much weaker than it used to be. You might think that people would always want at least decent political outcomes, but that hypothesis has gotten increasingly hard to defend in the last 10 years, both in the US and globally. Attachment to democracy, for instance, seems significantly weaker, as does love for capitalism. People’s tastes are being pulled in different directions, whether it be the Proud Boys or the extremely woke.
All of which is to say, a rather simple and unglorified possibility is becoming more likely: People have stopped wanting good things to happen.
I suspect that is correct, but it begs for an explanation. Tyler points out that there are no obvious answers:
I realize this explanation is banal and does not hold much emotional appeal. Many people prefer conspiracy theories, or tightly structured theoretical hypotheses, or to pin the blame on some particular political faction, usually one they oppose. Or they focus on some very specific issue, such as climate change.
I view all of those problems, real though they may be, as downstream from the more fundamental issue: Why haven’t our systems of government responded better to whatever particular dilemmas concern us most?
One possibility is that good periods occur when the public learns “lessons” from previous mistakes. When I look back on my life, I can recall certain lessons that grew out of historical events. In school during the 1960s, the lessons of the first half of the 2oth century loomed large. We were taught:
1. Authoritarian nationalism was a great evil, which had led to two world wars.
2. McCarthyism was also viewed as evil, resulting in a sort of “cancel culture”.
As I got older, there were additional lessons:
3. The Chinese Cultural Revolution was seen as an example of egalitarianism run amok, as innocent people were shamed merely because they had wealthy ancestors.
4. By the time I left graduate school, socialism was increasingly seen as being discredited (although the capitalist welfare state was still viewed positively.)
When I see modern conservatives touting the advantages of authoritarian nationalism or trying to overturn democratic elections, I am shocked by what seems to me to be an ignorance of history. I get the same reaction when I see progressives call for a sort of cancel culture, or price controls, or identity politics where some groups are shamed for being “privileged”.
Don’t these people know anything about history?
We need to remember that not 1 person in 20 is serious about education. Even many straight A students are just going through the motions to get good grades in order to get a good job. We should not expect the public to understand what’s wrong with nationalism or socialism. Why should they?
In the decades after WWII, any American politician sounding like an authoritarian nationalist would have been rejected in the way an immunized body rejects a foreign virus. Ditto for socialist ideas after the Soviet Union collapsed. But immunization doesn’t last forever.
In the past, we’ve had to go through some very painful historical events in order for the general public to learn its “lessons”. Is there a less painful way to immunize the public against bad ideas?
PS. Surely Putin’s recent actions constitute some sort of lesson for the public, albeit an extremely painful one for the Ukrainian people. It triggered a rare piece of good news—the decision by Sweden and Finland to join NATO (and increasing support for NATO in the Pacific.)
Happy 4th of July!
READER COMMENTS
Todd Ramsey
Jul 4 2022 at 3:09pm
I don’t understand why you think Finland and Sweden joining NATO is good news. Wouldn’t that obligate the United States to fight Russia in Russia’s back yard, should Finland be invaded? I don’t see how that benefits the U.S.
I’m probably missing something, can you help me understand?
Scott Sumner
Jul 4 2022 at 3:52pm
The whole point of Nato is to prevent war. Nato countries don’t have to fight to defend each other because no country has the nerve to invade a Nato country. I feel sorry for countries not in Nato, such as Ukraine and Georgia, which are helpless when invaded by a bigger neighbor.
If Nato had been set up after WWI, then WWII never would have happened.
In my view, Nato is the best foreign policy idea in world history. We should add Japan, S. Korea and Australia to Nato. The ultimate goal should be to eventually have all countries join Nato.
Robert D.
Jul 4 2022 at 4:18pm
The U.N. wasn’t even a speed bump on Russia’s path to invading Ukraine. Why would an expanded NATO be different?
Brandon
Jul 4 2022 at 4:31pm
NATO is a military alliance led by the US.
The United Nations is not a military alliance.
Brandon
Jul 4 2022 at 4:38pm
Scott,
I agree with your sentiments (heck, even Ludwig von Mises called for a world government), but military alliances are notorious throughout history for free riding and duplicitousness.
The only way to ensure that allies pay in, and that nobody (including founding/leading polities) can flee at the first sign of trouble, is federation. This is a big reason why Hayek and Mises pushed so hard, all their lives, for interstate federalism at the global level.
Why stop at military alliances? What’s keeping you from endorsing federation as a foreign policy?
Scott Sumner
Jul 4 2022 at 6:07pm
Nato already provides all of the needed protection, and it’s already far too strong to be attacked, even if a few members free ride to some extent. Federation adds nothing, and creates other problems (see the Eurozone.)
Brandon Christensen
Jul 7 2022 at 10:36pm
The Eurozone isn’t a federation! All of its member nation-states have complete sovereignty.
NATO is good as it is, but it could always be better. State sovereignty is overrated…
Jim Glass
Jul 4 2022 at 8:37pm
What’s supposed to prevent a state from bolting from a federation it if decides its interests diverge? And why didn’t it work in 1860?
Brandon Christensen
Jul 7 2022 at 10:44pm
Nothing. The key is to include some sort of constitutional procedure where the decision is made by several different layers of government (for example, a state legislatures 2/3 approval and federal legislature’s 1/3 approval), so that the a mob (Brexit) can’t dictate policy and so that the option of exit is not prohibited (US civil war).
That Mises and Hayek couldn’t make it work from the 1920s through the 1970s doesn’t make it any less strong of an argument. Heck, Madison and Hamilton barely made it work in the 1780s.
Some people may not want to join the US, mistakenly believing that their state’s sovereignty is precious and sacred, but if push comes to shove, the US can always toss out an either/or option: things are too expensive/dangerous, so either we leave or you apply for membership.
Jim Glass
Jul 4 2022 at 9:43pm
military alliances are notorious throughout history for free riding
Indulging some free riding can be very profitable as a cost of doing business. See Netflix as well as NATO.
What’s keeping you from endorsing federation as a foreign policy?
Are there any foreign nations wanting to join the US Federation that I’ve missed? Someone actually wanting to join a federation is the first requirement.
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba – would be admitted as separate “states,” and would thus get to send 2 senators each to Washington
Methinks you don’t know so many Canadians!
England and Wales would both get to send 2 Senators to Washington
Do they want them?
IsPaJo. Israel, Palestine, and Jordan would also be incorporated into 1 voting state … This isn’t nearly as crazy as it sounds.
Oh, yes, it is. 🙂
Hayek and Mises couldn’t make this work?
Mark Z
Jul 4 2022 at 4:52pm
To some extent the causality runs in the other direction: NATO selects for countries that are unlikely to go to war, since countries with ongoing territorial disputes aren’t allowed to join NATO, and NATO is designed to be an anti-Russia alliance, so countries that join NATO are already bound by a common enemy in Russia. If everyone were to join NATO, then I see no reason why countries couldn’t form rival informal blocs within NATO over the same sources of confrontation. Recall that the USSR tried to join NATO in 1954. Do you think they should’ve been allowed to? Would that have prevented the Soviet invasion of Hungary or military response to the Prague Spring?
I’d say NATO is more a consequence – rather than a cause – of comity between democratic nations that get along reasonably well. There are countries not in NATO – like Japan – that the US is as likely to defend as others in NATO. NATO may still be a good thing in itself, but mostly I think it’s a formalization of a sentiment that already exists among the nations that join it.
There is also though the same downside that afflicted the military alliances before WW1: it increases the likelihood that, if a war does break out, even between peripheral countries, it becomes a world war.
Scott Sumner
Jul 4 2022 at 6:06pm
There is a difference between countries we might wish to defend, and those we would fail to defend only at a severe loss of credibility. Russia KNOWS that we will defend Estonia if it were attacked. Iraq did not know if we would defend Kuwait, Russia did not know if we would defend Ukraine, and China does not know if we would defend Taiwan. Ambiguity causes wars.
Nato is more than a formality; it creates a safe space where otherwise a country might be in danger. Finland was attacked by Russia in the past, but now it’s safe.
MIchael Sandifer
Jul 4 2022 at 6:43pm
Your thoughts here all seem plausible, but I think perception of corruption and disappointment with economic growth and related standards of living are also important, along with social and technological change that are occurring too rapidly for some.
Market Fiscalist
Jul 4 2022 at 9:47pm
You say ‘When I see modern conservatives touting the advantages of authoritarian nationalism or trying to overturn democratic elections, I am shocked by what seems to me to be an ignorance of history. I get the same reaction when I see progressives call for a sort of cancel culture, or price controls, or identity politics where some groups are shamed for being “privileged”. ‘
I am a libertarian with (generally) a lack of sympathy for leftist ideas but I see no comparison between the current right which newly supports authoritarian nationalism including trying to overturn democratic elections and the current left which merely practices bad economics and pushes political correctness/wokeness to its fringes which they have been doing for the last 4 decades at least (and almost certainly the latter thing has made thew world a better place).
Scott Sumner
Jul 5 2022 at 1:32am
Yes, I’m also more worried about the right.
Mactoul
Jul 5 2022 at 5:47am
Bad economics may kill billions.
ee
Jul 4 2022 at 11:35pm
First, the stable perception of democracy and capitalism seems to be: I want it but not too much. I think liberal democracies are in the “not too much” phase today but I’m not worried. Democracy and capitalism have a high approval floor because they bring freedom and wealth. But their approval ceiling is limited because people are too anxious and short-sighted for democracy (this problem is too scary to wait for consensus) and too jealous for capitalism (poor are stealing our jobs and wealthy are stealing our capital).
Second, it’s harder today to “solve a problem” due to the cultural fragmentation of the world’s population due to the internet. People find niche groups that appeal to them, are bombarded with consistent messaging and data overload. They see and hear their neighbors and make enemies. They are so radicalized that their minds become closed. And they see everything their government representatives are doing and demand blood now, where in the past those representatives may have had more of a leash.
I do think there’s hope in the internet age because radical transparency shows neighboring constituencies which policies work and which don’t (see police reform, drug legalization).
Third, governments decay over time. Corruption is quiet to begin and noisy to take away. This is where I think lessons are relearned over decades or centuries.
PS: Defense treaties seem great when there is one dominant group. When there are equally powered groups, defense treaties seem unstable and risk amplifying, aka WWI.
Rajat
Jul 5 2022 at 5:25am
Somehow I can’t believe the near-global degradation of politics and public policy is about the waning protective effect of ‘lessons’ that seem moderately specific to particular countries or continents. For example, India didn’t experience the world wars on its home soil and yet stayed away from authoritarian nationalism until fairly recently. Meanwhile, Russia had barely 20 years’ break from Soviet socialism before opting for a return to something at least a little similar. To a lesser degree, the same goes for China. And for lessons to be imparted, people need to be educated about them if they did not experience them first-hand; but as you (and Bryan Caplan) say, most people don’t learn or remember much from their formal educations.
Another potential explanation is that the global financial crisis undermined popular belief in the legitimacy of liberal capitalism. But outside the US and Western Europe, the GFC was actually not that big a deal. And even in those regions, what resulted was a severe recession (rather than depression) although not that much more severe than the recession of the early 1980s, which if anything led to the speeding-up of market-orientated reforms. Maybe the recession was longer and unemployment stayed higher than in the early 1980s, but not dramatically so.
I think there is something else going on, and it is hard to avoid thinking – sadly – that it has something to do with the death of expertise and the democratisation of voice. I think the global warming debate was one of the first victims of this shift. Perhaps I erred in reading Bjorn Lomborg fairly early in the piece; and I understand that many scientists believe his climate-related claims are wrong or at best misleading. But at least at the time, what I seemed to observe was that although global warming science made intuitive sense, prominent scientific institutions and environmental scientists took it upon themselves to exaggerate the harms, underplay the perhaps only medium-term benefits, and dismiss (albeit unpopular) solutions like nuclear power. That led to me as a non-crazy person to question their good faith and credibility. Once that trust is lost, people start to wonder whether everything else they’ve been told to believe is good for them, like markets and trade and immigration and meritocracy – and vaccines – really is so. Like you said in a previous post, experts and governments should just stop lying to people to manipulate them to do things. If and when those in authority do lie, it doesn’t take much searching on the internet or social media to find someone who can make a respectable case that readers are not getting the whole truth. Once expertise receives no respect, people flock to simple ideas, quick payoffs and tribalism.
Rajat
Jul 5 2022 at 5:27am
Somehow I can’t believe the near-global degradation of politics and public policy is about the waning protective effect of ‘lessons’ that seem moderately specific to particular countries or continents. For example, India didn’t experience the world wars on its home soil and yet stayed away from authoritarian nationalism until fairly recently. Meanwhile, Russia had barely 20 years’ break from Soviet socialism before opting for a return to something at least a little similar. To a lesser degree, the same goes for China. And for lessons to be imparted, people need to be educated about them if they did not experience them first-hand; but as you (and Bryan Caplan) say, most people don’t learn or remember much from their formal educations.
Another potential explanation is that the global financial crisis undermined popular belief in the legitimacy of liberal capitalism. But outside the US and Western Europe, the GFC was actually not that big a deal. And even in those regions, what resulted was a severe recession (rather than depression) although not that much more severe than the recession of the early 1980s, which if anything led to the speeding-up of market-orientated reforms. Maybe the recession was longer and unemployment stayed higher than in the early 1980s, but not dramatically so.
I think there is something else going on, and it is hard to avoid thinking – sadly – that it has something to do with the death of expertise and the democratisation of voice. I think the global warming debate was one of the first victims of this shift. Perhaps I erred in reading Bjorn Lomborg fairly early in the piece; and I understand that many scientists believe his climate-related claims are wrong or at best misleading. But at least at the time, what I seemed to observe was that although global warming science made intuitive sense, prominent scientific institutions and environmental scientists took it upon themselves to exaggerate the harms, underplay the perhaps only medium-term benefits, and dismiss (albeit unpopular) solutions like nuclear power. That led to me as a non-crazy person to question their good faith and credibility. Once that trust is lost, people start to wonder whether everything else they’ve been told to believe is good for them, like markets and trade and immigration and meritocracy – and vaccines – really is so. Like you said in a previous post, experts and governments should just stop fibbing to people to manipulate them to do things. If and when those in authority do fib, it doesn’t take much searching on the internet or social media to find someone who can make a respectable case that readers are not getting the whole truth. Once expertise receives no respect, people flock to simple ideas, quick payoffs and tribalism.
JoeF
Jul 5 2022 at 6:14am
So “trying to overturn democratic elections” is somehow bad? I would say an unquestioned election is not worth having. Also, there’s nothing recent about questioning election results, because there’s nothing recent about coming up with marginally-legal ways to harvest ballots (I’m from Philadelphia). To your general question, if something has changed recently in the population, in my opinion it is that there has been a decline of skepticism and critical thinking. Maybe that decline mirrors the observed general decline in reading and math (when measured objectively).
Scott Sumner
Jul 5 2022 at 3:01pm
There’s a massive difference between questioning election procedures in this or that district, and trying to overturn a democratic election that you’ve lost.
vince
Jul 6 2022 at 1:59am
Were you as concerned when the Democrats tried to overturn the election Clinton lost, for an entire term, all on a big lie that the Party manufactured?
Scott Sumner
Jul 6 2022 at 11:34am
“Were you as concerned when the Democrats tried to overturn the election Clinton lost,”
No, because they did not do that. Clinton accepted defeat.
vince
Jul 6 2022 at 1:31pm
The Sussman case reveals the lies. And it wasn’t Clinton directly. That would be too clean. She had the entire Democratic Party and their media do it.
MarkW
Jul 5 2022 at 7:10am
No, they don’t stay discredited forever. You have to be pushing 50, for example, to have much of a memory of the cold war, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and Tiananmen Square. Hitler and the Nazis, of course, are older still, but culture does a reasonable job of keeping them and their crimes in public consciousness (though less so for Stalin and Mao unfortunately).
Both nationalism (go team!) and communism (it’s just caring and sharing!) will always have superficial appeal to the human psyche. As living memory of the downsides gradually disappears, the risk of recurrence rises.
Michael Rulle
Jul 5 2022 at 9:30am
It is extremely difficult to make the kind of analysis that Tyler attempts. He asks a very important “Why haven’t our systems of government responded better to whatever particular dilemmas concern us most?”
I did not read his essay——your response implied that we (humans) used to do this better. That might be true. But I don’t think it is true. Meaning, as a generalization, I doubt it is true.
We are always in “today’s bubble”, regardless of the calendar. One of the things I have spent a little time on is looking at old news shows from 1940-1960 (eg—Eric Severeid—-from 1940s, etc) and reading old history books (for example, The journalist—-William Shire’s account of WWII—1960—but from his news accounts going back to the 20s)
What strikes me from these is not how different they seem from today, but how similar they seem.
Just an observation.
Spencer Bradley Hall
Jul 5 2022 at 12:08pm
We live in a predatory society. The American Bankers Association paid $3,000 to economists not to debate the issue of time deposit banking in 1961. Government is run by the lobbies.
Jose Pablo
Jul 5 2022 at 5:42pm
“Government” (its multiple branches, bodies and individuals) is, in modern democracies, run by elected officials.
You don’t need any conspiracy theory to understand the multiple pitfalls of the system. See, for instance:
https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691138732/the-myth-of-the-rational-voter
or
https://www.libertyfund.org/books/bureaucracy-2/
The “anti-foreign” bias (and the make-work bias to some extent) explains very well the “nationalism” of the voters. It is just a matter of time that a politician tries to exert unconstitutional authority capitalizing on that bias (even in the US as we learnt last year). Has happened, it’s happening and will happen again (as far as we keep committing the mistake of having “governments”)
Jose Pablo
Jul 5 2022 at 6:00pm
There is a general tendency (in Latin America and everywhere) to increase the size (measure by government expenditures to GDP) and the influence (measure by the number of pages of regulation) of the Government.
This increase in size would, inevitably, feed the idea that “governments can solve any problem we can have”, both individual and collective problems.
Once voters believe that the omnipotence of Government can solve all (most of) their problems they would tend to elect authoritarian politicians based on their promises, no matter how baseless (“I will make America great again” kind of promises)
You need a collapse, either economic or political or both, to reverse this tendency. I would say that the main mechanism for this reverse is that a significant number of voters, disappointed by the failure of the theoretically omnipotent politicians, will just choose not to vote. Afterall, you get “better governments” when a lot of people just don’t vote.
Jose Pablo
Jul 6 2022 at 12:20pm
https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-announce-final-rules-for-pension-bailout-11657121742?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1
As an example. Slow motion collectivism (whether it is coming from the left or from the right is pretty irrelevant) will infantilize voters and will led to “worse” governments (in the classical liberal meaning of the expression).
After all who wants to be free from a government that is babysitting most of their voters?
Modern “democracies” (I think we need a new term) politicians are mastering the art of buying out the voters (always an enlightened minority by the way) that think that “individual freedom” is paramount.
The rise of good bread and circuses providers tyrants is an inevitable corollary of the omnipotent state.
Andrew_FL
Jul 6 2022 at 1:49pm
Apparently another idea that hasn’t stayed discredited is technocracy, as you advocate it as not only a, but the alternative to authoritarianism.
TGGP
Jul 6 2022 at 7:55pm
I wouldn’t trust schools to give kids a sensible understanding of politics. What consequences do teachers or students face or coming away with completely wrongheaded views, like what Bryan Caplan calls our “secular religion“?
It might be understandable that people neglect historical periods they didn’t live through. But Venezuela went down the tubes recently enough that Latin Americans should remember that.
Comments are closed.