Back when Trump was President-Elect Trump, I made the following bet:
If Donald Trump dies in office, resigns, is removed by the Senate after impeachment, or otherwise is permanently removed as per the the 25th Amendment, or if it never happens that he takes the Oath of office as POTUS on Jan 20, 2017, the BC owes [redacted] $350. Otherwise, [redacted] owes BC $100.
Since Trump has now completed his term, I have won this bet, bringing my cumulative public betting record to 22 wins, 0 losses. False modesty aside, I take great pride in my track record.
Surprisingly, I could have gotten much better odds if I had made this bet anytime from late 2017 to mid-2018. Check out the historical odds.
This market wasn’t open when I made the original bet, but I discovered the existence of this Trump betting market by early 2018. So why didn’t I leap on this opportunity to raise the stakes at much better odds? If I leapt into the market when it opened, my odds would have been even instead of 7:2 against me.
So what gives? My honest answer is a combination of (a) I was disturbed to learn that the market was so against me, and (b) I didn’t (and still don’t) know how to place a bet in this market. In hindsight, of course, I wish I’d bet the farm. Live and learn.
P.S. Thanks to Duncan Levear for pointing out an error in the original post.
READER COMMENTS
Philo
Jan 21 2021 at 10:46am
“Live and learn.” That’s what those suffering from hindsight bias always say.
robc
Jan 21 2021 at 10:46am
I couldn’t find a Biden Out early chart, does it not exist yet?
Franklin Bellamy
Jan 21 2021 at 11:28am
As I read the bet you made, I would actually argue that it is not yet resolved (though I agree you are very likely to ultimately win it). There is still a possibility that Trump could be elected to another term in 2024, and resign or be removed from that term. Technically, I wouldn’t consider the bet resolved until Trump dies, Trump completes a second term, or Trump is impeached and barred from future office.
anon
Jan 21 2021 at 12:12pm
Do you still think this was a good bet when you made it?
Alabamian
Jan 21 2021 at 5:28pm
^^This is the correct question.
Always being on the side of the bet that pays isn’t the same thing as demonstrating good judgment relative to others. The odds matter and, in Bryan’s examples, the odds are are made up and don’t tell us anything.
If I bet the moneyline for a 10-1 favorite at 5-1 odds and the favorite wins, is that evidence that my judgement was *good*??? Certainly not.
There is an easy way for Bryan to test, calibrate, and demonstrate his judgment and forecasting ability, much more so than these silly bets. He should make public predictions with his confidence specified. [i.e. 80% of American adults will be vaccinated for COVID by October 1, 2021. (70% confidence)] After all, Bryan’s real skin in this game is reputational anyway. Periodically Bryan can update how his predictions have done relative to his confidence.
Ben
Jan 21 2021 at 12:12pm
That chart’s probably based on international betting sites like the Betfair Exchange and Smarkets – not available in the US thanks to America’s strange aversion to online betting.
Mark
Jan 22 2021 at 4:30am
During Trump Era, late Sheldon Adelson lobbied against allowing online gambling. Go figure…
Davide
Jan 21 2021 at 3:49pm
“I could have gotten much better odds if I had made this bet anytime from late 2017 to the present”
Do I misunderstand? The chart shows the probability of “Full Term” increasing over time to 100%. In January 2019 it looks to be around 90%. Assuming this means a payout odds of 1 to 9, that would mean your bet of $350 would only get you around $40 winnings. So you got better odds by making the bet when you did.
Charlie
Jan 21 2021 at 4:16pm
I can see the argument that if the Senate votes to both convict Trump (currently ~20% on Predictit) and bar him from holding office in the future, then they are meeting the requirements to “Remove [Trump] by the Senate after impeachment”, with the Remove referring to removing his ability to run for office in the future.
Itai Bar-Natan
Jan 26 2021 at 2:27pm
Congratulations on your perfect betting record! Perhaps consider it a sign that you should be making more bets?
Comments are closed.