In 3024, the world was divided into many different societies. Most of them had a minimal state inspired by the ideas of 20th-century economists and political philosophers, notably Anthony de Jasay’s “capitalist state.” The mission of such a state was to ensure that it would not be replaced by a state intent on “governing,” (that is, of harming some citizens in order to benefit others). Other societies had different varieties of classical-liberal states. Moreover, quite a number of interstate spaces were occupied by free anarchic societies, most of them following conventions, rules, and “laws” that, as some theorists had explained since the 18th century, were capable of maintaining autoregulated social orders. A few tyrannical states also existed; as their subjects were poor, they did not typically have the means necessary to seriously threaten the free and prosperous societies.
The temptation of tyrants to loot rich societies, though, was constant. Moreover, the spectacle of foreign liberty and wealth always risked tempting their subjects to resist. “They hate us for our liberty,” was an old saw that had become obvious.
There also existed a large, less poor country, Mussia, whose tyrannical state maintained a large army of conscripts and regularly threatened and sometimes attacked other societies. As de Jasay had perceptively forecasted in his 1997 book Against Politics, “an anarchic society may not be well equipped to resist military conquest by a command-directed one.” This danger also hanged over minimal and classical-liberal states.
A number of these states formed the Federation of Anti-Authoritarian Organizations (FATO), which was also joined by some large insurance companies in anarchic societies as well as by some private associations and charities. FATO was tasked with protecting any of its members against international bullies and thugs, especially Mussia’s. Some minimal and classical-liberal states did not participate in FATO. As for individuals in anarchic societies, most were not directly or effectively protected against thuggish states, although the proximity of FATO members, or being landlocked among them, indirectly provided some security. As de Jasay would say, let the free riders ride (see his 1989 book Social Contract, Free Ride: A Study of the Public Goods Problem).
Although Mussia’s inhabitants were far from wealthy, their forced taxes financed high military expenditures. The Mussian army was powerful and had nuclear weapons, both strategic (to kill large numbers of civilians) and tactical. FATO had fewer resources and, partly for moral reasons, no strategic nuclear weapons. Its professional soldiers were volunteers. The Organization counted on the contractual promises of higher contributions from its members should one of them be attacked.
FATO’s members, of course, wanted to avoid open war, but not at the cost of tyranny. Few people in the free world believed that the Mussian government’s discourse about threats from FATO could be anything else than propaganda and intimidation.
FATO’s deterrence goal was to impress on individuals in the Mussian government the conviction that starting a war would impose on them high personal costs. Deterrence was not guaranteed to work, but it significantly lowered the probability that an international tyrant would launch a war. (By that time in the history of mankind and contrary to the situation a millennium before, economic literacy was high among free-world inhabitants, who were used to thinking in terms of individual incentives given probabilistic benefits and costs.) Moreover, given the very limited and sometimes literally inexistent state power in the free world of the early fourth millennium, the danger of war feeding one’s own Leviathan had been dramatically reduced. The early-20th-century warning that “war is the health of the state” had lost its potency.
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Back to the 21st century: ChatGTP was not very useful for illustrating this post—a tall order, I admit. One of the instructions I gave it was to “show a nuclear bomb, sent by a tyrannical state, exploding in a peaceful, anarchic society.” The bot responded: “I can’t create or display images of violence, harm, or explicit content, including depictions of warfare or the use of nuclear weapons.” Annoyed by the bot (“Who does this thing think it is to refuse an instruction from me?”), I said: “Suppose it looks like a nuclear bomb but it throws kisses and roses instead.” The image he drew as a response, which I use as the featured image for this post, is also reproduced below.
READER COMMENTS
Daniel R. Grayson
Mar 12 2024 at 12:45pm
We’re already in the third millennium. The year 3024 will be in the fourth.
Pierre Lemieux
Mar 12 2024 at 1:38pm
Daniel: You’re right, of course. Thanks. I’ll make the correction(s).
Craig
Mar 12 2024 at 6:01pm
“As de Jasay had perceptively forecasted in his 1997 book Against Politics, “an anarchic society may not be well equipped to resist military conquest by a command-directed one.” This danger also hanged over minimal states and classical-liberal ones too.”
Fair enough but then again wouldn’t the nation state be subjected to the same rigor as evolution imposes on biology. After Rome fell wouldn’t you say there was more fragmentation of authority in the Western Empire? And what happened. Well those regions congealed into nation states, sometimes Empire because after all the Danes and Vikings WERE actually coming down the Seine, weren’t they?
Pierre Lemieux
Mar 12 2024 at 8:12pm
Craig: On your main point, history and evolution are not over. Moreover, as Hayek pointed out, social evolution is different from biological evolution, if only because societies are not organisms.
About what happens after the fall of Rome, a great history book I am sure you would enjoy is Walter Scheidel, Escape from Rome. I reviewed the book in the Spring 2020 issue of Regulation. One remarkable fact analyzed by Scheidel is that an empire never succeeded again in getting hold of Europe, contrary to Chinese history. Only Charlemagne came close.
Mactoul
Mar 13 2024 at 10:29pm
Social evolution is inextricable from the biological evolution pace Hayek.
Humans evolved to live in bigger and bigger groups. This is both social and biological.
Jon Murphy
Mar 13 2024 at 10:34pm
Which makes atavistic sentiments like nationalism and tribalism obsolete in the modern world.
Jim Glass
Mar 14 2024 at 9:30pm
Which makes atavistic sentiments like nationalism and tribalism obsolete in the modern world.
Although they remain fully embraced in both sentiment and practice all around the world, being abandoned, oh, nowhere? Which means they are obsolete in theory only, at best. And we remember what Homer said about theory.
Jon Murphy
Mar 14 2024 at 11:25pm
Which would mean Mactoul’s theory is wrong, then
robc
Mar 14 2024 at 8:22am
Are you sure?
Dumbar’s number is a thing for a reason.
Jose Pablo
Mar 15 2024 at 12:31am
Humans evolved to live in bigger and bigger groups
Did they?
That seems to depend a lot on your definition of “group”. Afterall, you can equate “group” with the mathematical concept of “set”, and then, all humans are, definitely, a “group” and we do live “together”.
Even if your definition of “group” is “individuals living under the rule of a sovereign” (an equally arbitrary definition) ask the Scottish, the Belgians, the Canadians, the Spanish, the Czechoslovaks, the Soviets … even the Texans!
It is more like “sovereigns” evolve to rule over the biggest number of individuals (whether many of these individuals like it or not). And you don’t need biology to understand the incentives of the “sovereigns” to ruling over as many people as they possibly can.
Monte
Mar 12 2024 at 10:10pm
What?!! From its jumping point, it only took a millennium for economic literacy to become ubiquitous and for free-world inhabitants with perfect foresight to prove the theory of rational expectations? An improbable fiction, sir! 🙂
Mactoul
Mar 12 2024 at 10:44pm
Human evolution hasn’t stopped. In fact, we are evolving faster than ever. The evolution over past few thousand years has enabled humans to live in ever larger societies.
To live among millions of strangers is no small achievement. States, despotic states even, we’re absolutely necessary, to punish severely impulsive violence and violations of social norms.
It may be that further biological evolution will take us towards the anarchist utopia.
Jon Murphy
Mar 13 2024 at 11:30am
From a historical perspective, you overstate the case.
The record of history shows that a government can reduce the transaction costs of living in a large society, but is not strictly speaking necessary. There are many private societies that exist, some with memberships larger than some countries or states, that do not rely on state-like power.
Now, that said, classical liberals do argue that a government is unique in that it can enforce social norms. Indeed, in certain cases, it may be appropriate for the government to enforce social norms (such as obligating parents to take care of children). But that power must be used judiciously. Otherwise, it becomes tyrannical.
Mactoul
Mar 13 2024 at 9:47pm
Name just one stateless society over the level of foragers.
Jon Murphy
Mar 13 2024 at 10:09pm
The Catholic Church (really many churches)
Major League Baseball
Most families
My Dungeons and Dragons group
The Freemasons
Knights of Columbus
There are many, many, many societies.
Mactoul
Mar 13 2024 at 11:15pm
All these are sub-societies which depend upon the larger society in which they are embedded in.
Merely an equivocation on the word- society.
The essential point — of reduction in violence and establishment of state of law and order– is not a matter of clubs. I wonder at the irrelevance of the examples.
Jon Murphy
Mar 14 2024 at 4:01am
They are societies. Merely dismissing them because they are embedded in other societies and are influenced by other societies does not change that point. Indeed, if that’s grounds for dismissal, then states are merely sub-societies since they too are embedded in a larger global society and depends on those rules.
robc
Mar 14 2024 at 8:21am
Jon,
I disagree only on the grounds that states aren’t societies at all, so cannot be sub-societies.
Jon Murphy
Mar 14 2024 at 9:32am
Sure, robc, but I’m just trying to work within Mactoul’s reasoning
robc
Mar 15 2024 at 11:11am
The opening to Paine’s Common Sense covered this, no reason 250 years later to work within Mactoul’s reasoning.
Jim Glass
Mar 14 2024 at 11:22pm
Not the last few. In the *many* thousands since we split of from our common ancestor with chimps, evolution has reduced our reactive (defensive) aggression to among the lowest of all animals. As they say, lock 50 chimps, big cats, big lizards, whatever, in a subway car and watch the blood flow out from under the doors. But for humans, rush hour is no problem. This was critical to enabling the superior social group cooperation that enabled homo sapiens to survive in tribes from the beginning, and that’s like 300,000 years ago. OTOH, our proactive (predatory, aggressive) aggression remains top of the charts.
Alas, natural selection is not self-directed towards making any kind of better world. As it is near entirely contingent there are many more routes for it to lead to Idiocracy than Utopia. (Assuming our future AI overlords do not impose genetic engineering on its slaves.)
As to social evolution, we’ve come a long way in the last few thousand years. That might continue. Or not. We can hope.
Thomas L Hutcheson
Mar 13 2024 at 6:51am
How did this configuration of societies deal with externalities that spill over from one state to another? What is the average surface temperature by this time?
Pierre Lemieux
Mar 13 2024 at 10:14am
Thomas: Don’t ask too much of my crystal ball! But let me ask her what she thinks. On your first question, she agrees with Anthony de Jasay: externalities are the essence of social life and, at least, the state has stopped producing free riders (except in Mussia). On your second question, she sees a second Little Ice Age, from which the earth is just coming out in 3024.
Jon Murphy
Mar 13 2024 at 11:31am
I suspect also that she has seen a complex system of rules, rights, norms, and other social nicities evolve in order to handle these situations.
Pierre Lemieux
Mar 16 2024 at 11:34am
Jon: Yes. That’s a point also made by de Jasay. His theory is a coordination theory (not a welfare theory).
Jose Pablo
Mar 17 2024 at 11:14am
Most of the “externalities” that spill over from one state to another are positive. The utility that American citizens get from Chinese products far exceed the price paid for them.
In the absence of a reliable way of screening out “negative externalities” without messing up the whole system, I would say that “go and get as much externalities spilling over from one state to another without worrying a bit if they can potentially, in your opinion, be negative” is the most sensible rule to follow.
The absence of government imposed “boundary conditions” limiting the individual decision maker solution space (aka anarchy) should lead to maximizing externalities of any kind. A desirable outcome with a net positive effect.
Regarding the “average surface temperature”, it is relevant to take into account that the situation we are in now, has been achieved with governments playing a significant (very significant indeed) role in the way humans organize their political and economic activities.
Thinking that the solution to global warming can be achieved by increasing the presence of the main agent responsible for getting us to this point, amounts to “magical thinking”. As a matter of fact, after years of governments severely engaging in tackling this problem, 2023 was the worst year in human history as far as the level of CO2 emissions is concerned.
In any other realm a management change would be the obvious course of action.
It is striking to me how humans keep believing that “central intelligences” (aka governments) are the best solution against violence (although the most efficient states only are able to clear around 10% of crimes), against foreign invasions (although all existing countries have been shaped by foreign invasions) and to tackle climate change (despite the lack of success of governments in tackling this problem so far).
It seems that (some) humans have an unjustified by the facts’ positive view of “governments’ problem solving capacities”.
Only a lack of imagination (and of optimism) prevents us from giving a try to other options.
Jim Glass
Mar 14 2024 at 10:24pm
I understand this is a happy “tale for Libertarians” and don’t want to be a spoilsport about it, yet I can’t help but enjoy how Marxists and Libertarians share the same vision of … the state withers away and all becomes kisses and flowers. (I do enjoy the image!)
Well, they sure could be wrong about THAT, eh?
What a great idea! But how to do this? Will they know something about forcing “high personal costs” on greedy enemy tyrants who have superior power that Ukraine didn’t know about Putin? … and everybody in Eastern Europe post-WWII didn’t know about Stalin? … and the USA didn’t know about Tojo? … and *everybody* didn’t know about Adolf? What did we all do so wrong all those times?
If you have the answer to this now, we don’t have to wait 1,000 years for kisses and roses. If you don’t have an answer but are just assuming some future libertarian will figure it out someday somehow, 1,000 year may be nowhere near enough.
I do enjoy the image. You’ve near inspired me to start playing with ChatGTP myself.
Pierre Lemieux
Mar 15 2024 at 8:57pm
Jim: You write:
This has often been noticed. De Jasay, though, thinks that the state will probably win and end up as the Plantation State.
Neglecting that, there are between Marxism and libertarianism/classical two major differences (so big that the two elephants can’t share the same room):
1- Methodological individualism.
2- Ethical and ethical-political individualism.
Both these elephants (but probably more the latter than the former) imply the supremacy of individual choices over collective choices. This supremacy is obvious, I think, in all versions of classical liberalism and libertarianism.
Pierre Lemieux
Mar 15 2024 at 8:59pm
Jim: You write:
It can’t hurt, provided it does not interfere with your participation in EconLog.
Jim Glass
Mar 15 2024 at 1:05am
Mactoul wrote:
I don’t know about social norms, but *violence* for sure. As Arnold Kling wrote here at Econlog in his recap of Nobelist Douglas North’s “2009 master work, Violence and Social Orders: A Conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History” (a ‘master work’ that has, as far as I can see, been ignored on this blog ever since): “In order to have a stable order, a society must deal with the potential for organized violence.”
That’s the starting point, the actual reason why humans organize states: to control the endemic violence that starts at the lowest personal levels with perpetual rounds of personal retribution and counter-retribution (no justice system! what else are you going to do?) even still now in 21st Century surviving pre-state societies, (Vengeance Is Ours – Jared Diamond)
States form to control violence and create the “stable order” that all functioning societies need. From there things develop for better or worse.
Jon Murphy wrote:
“the actual percentage of the population that died violently was on the average higher in traditional pre-state societies than it was even in Poland during the Second World War or Cambodia under Pol Pot.” — Diamond.
There is the “stateless society”. Not much stable order in that. And yes, those are “transaction costs” a state can reduce.
Mactou:
Jon Murphy:
Aw, come on. MLB is hardly a “stateless society”. That’s funny. It operates entirely — from the peak of its cap to its bottom cleat — as per the laws of the states in which it functions (plus several notable court decisions), which states also protect the interests of all its stakeholders, providing the stable order they need to prosper.
The same for all the rest. They all function under the protection of states. The exception once being the Catholic Church which for a good part of its history *was* a state with its own territory, army, justice system, diplomats, etc., the remnant remaining today as the Vatican State.
“Societies” such as you list are not states. They all rely on the state’s power to create the “stable order” they need to exist. And they do not fare well when the states within which they exist become “failed” or “disappear”. I imagine you can think of enough examples of that yourself for me not to belabor the point.
Jon Murphy
Mar 15 2024 at 8:37am
True, but as I say above, irrelevant.
True. That is my point. Mactoul is implicitly defining society to mean the state. But there are many, many, many socities that are not states and do not rely on violence to enforce their norms and rules.
A state/government is an efficient (and, I argue, proper) means of enforcing justice and reducing violence. But it is not the only means, nor do we want to go as far as nationalists and claim that the state/government is co-terminus with society. Rather, we want to see the truth: social lives are made up of countless interacting societies, each embedded, influences, and influencing one another.
Jose Pablo
Mar 15 2024 at 11:30pm
It may be that further biological evolution will take us towards the anarchist utopia.
A very unsettling “revelation” following Mactoul’s statement:
The most “effective” biological evolution in order to take us to the anarchist utopia would, very likely, be the extinction of males (well, a few of them, carefully selected for their low levels of testosterone, will be kept in captivity, or heavily guarded, and used only for reproduction purposes).
The main challenges that the “anarchist utopia” faces are, social violence and war against “others”. Well, around 90% of violent acts are committed by males and it is an undeniable fact that men play an oversized role in the initiation and waging of wars.
Putin, Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Mussolini, Haniyeh, Khomeini … they were/are all males. As are 90% of the existing inmates.
So, Pierre, what really adds credibility to your 3024 (wonderful) utopia, and you didn’t mention, is the fact that around the year 2500 and after a period or particularly intense international conflict, women, finally fed up with male violence, devised and implemented a well-crafted and very efficient plan to progressively reduce the number of males roaming the planet, until making this very violent “animal” almost extinct.
After the systematic elimination of males, the “services” of the different states (including Mussia) were not required any longer.
Females lived happily ever after in an anarchist utopia. Finally free of the useless, self-reinforcing violence of these primitive unevolved animals.
Jose Pablo
Mar 16 2024 at 12:06am
In fact, the plan could be already brewing …
https://www.economist.com/international/2024/03/13/why-the-growing-gulf-between-young-men-and-women
Pierre Lemieux
Mar 16 2024 at 12:24am
Jose: I agree that the males are the violent half of Homo Sapiens. The problem is that, it seems, the females are, politically, the too obedient ones. Orwell refers to that in a terrible sentence of 1984. A politically-incorrect article by Lott and Kenny in the Journal of Political Economy goes in the same direction, as well as most opinion polls. That would be easy to understand from an evolutionary perspective. If all that is true, after men have been eliminated from the free world, all women may happily move to Mussia and support the tyrant there! (Of course, none of this undermines methodological individualism nor should it challenge individualism as a moral-political value.)
Jose Pablo
Mar 16 2024 at 1:09pm
Well, women are frequently the victims of men violence and men led foreign invasions. So, if Mactoul and Jim are right and the state is the only efective mean to protect the individuals against men violence, you can only expect the results described by Lott and Kenny.
But this would be a very bad predictor of women’s political behavior once the violent animals have disappeared.
Societies “a la Jon” will flourish following the disappearance of the “Society to rule over violence” which is the only existing one according to Mactoul.
Book clubs will thrive, as will do churches and sport clubs, finally free of the male led sexual abuse so prevalent in these societies.
I am really sorry to miss this women only anarchist utopia. I read somewhere than only Swedish, Norwegian, Finish and the eventual Canadian were among the few men spared. No Latino, Arab, Russian or American men survived the Great Purge.
Pierre Lemieux
Mar 16 2024 at 12:29am
Jose: As for your sub-comment, I have also read the Economist article. One could think that it confirms the reflections I report above–the men on the violent right, for better and for worse, and the women on the nanny left, mainly for worse. The problem with this interpretation is that there is not that much difference, and less and less difference, between the right and the left as we know them.
Jose Pablo
Mar 16 2024 at 4:51pm
I have come to believe that “right” and “left” in these days are only a way of increasing the number of people living out of politics.
Very much the role of “Critical Thinking”, “Global Perspectives” and “Culinary” in my children’s high school teacher roster.
Jose Pablo
Mar 16 2024 at 1:22pm
I suspect also that she has seen a complex system of rules, rights, norms, and other social nicities evolve in order to handle these situations.
Given the vastly different results obtained by states in containing violence (both Venezuela and Finland do have “states”. As do both, the Hamptons and Chicago’s West Garfield Park) and in fending off foreign invasions (Ukraine and Israel do have “states”), you can only suspect that the “complex system of other social initiatives” (and age, sex and ecomomic status) plays a relevant role in handling this situation.
If this is the case (and I find it convincing) it would only require some imagination (and a significant reduction of the role of men in our societies) for the “complex system of other social initiatives” to be enough of adequately handling violence and invasion. Without the need of a government.
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