Let’s actually pay attention to the science.
Neither the Obama rule nor the proposed reform [by the Trump administration] would have any detectable effect on temperatures or climate phenomena over the remainder of this century. (Climate projections beyond 2100 are not to be taken seriously.) Total U.S. methane emissions in 2018 (635 million metric tons in CO2 equivalents) were 9.5 percent of all U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions, and about 1.2 percent of global greenhouse-gas emissions. Suppose that U.S. methane emissions were to be eliminated completely. If we apply the EPA climate model, which is based on assumptions that exaggerate the effects of reduced emissions, global temperatures would be about 0.012° Celsius lower than otherwise would be the case by the year 2100. If we apply assumptions more consistent with the modern peer-reviewed literature, that predicted effect becomes even smaller — about 0.005° Celsius. If a complete elimination of methane emissions would have a such a trivial effect, the effect of the Obama rule would be even less significant.
This is from Benjamin Zycher, “The Trump administration reforms Obama’s misguided methane emissions rule,” National Review, August 18, 2020.
Why does the Obama regulation apply “only to U.S. oil and gas production and transport systems” when U.S. agriculture accounts for 40 percent of U.S. methane emissions (versus 28 percent for the oil and gas sectors)?
Zycher, who always notices the public-choice aspects of policy issues, provides the answer:
But it would be much more difficult to reduce agricultural emissions; doing so would drive up the industry’s costs significantly, and thus the prices that Americans pay for food. The costs to fossil-fuel operations of the Obama methane rule by contrast are hidden in a long supply chain comprising exploration, production, gathering and transport (including transport of crude oil and refined products from overseas), refining, distribution, imports, and so on, while the adverse price effects can be blamed on the evil oil companies.
I found the last paragraph of Zycher’s article most interesting:
Why is it that methane emissions from fossil-fuel operations have declined about 23 percent since 1990, despite an increase in oil production of 49 percent, and an increase in gas production of 72 percent? Notwithstanding the assertions of the environmental Left, a reduction in methane emissions furthers the industry’s interests, because methane is valuable; from the viewpoint of a profit-seeking fossil-fuel producer, sales are vastly preferable to losses through emissions. The interests of the private sector and environmental protection are far more consistent than commonly asserted, a reality that no one should be allowed to obscure.
This reminds me of what I wrote in “Save the Environment, and Get Rich,” Reason, July 2000. It’s a review of Natural Capitalism, by Paul Hawken, Amory Lovins, and L. Hunter Lovins.
Here’s the relevant paragraph from my review:
Capitalism—the search for profits through making and selling in free markets—should move us toward both a healthy economy and clean air and water. Why? Because pollution and waste are inefficient and expensive. Is your factory polluting the air? You are wasting money. Polluting the water? You are wasting money. Using too much energy? Still wasting money. Add in the property rights of those downstream and the link between capitalism and environmentalism becomes still clearer. Factor in the true value of the clean air and water that nature produces each and every day for “free,” and it becomes obvious that we will be richer with a cleaner environment.
HT2 Don Boudreaux.
READER COMMENTS
Robert EV
Aug 19 2020 at 2:57pm
Fortunately this isn’t the case, and people are working on it. Hooray for biological research!
https://www.greenbiz.com/article/5-feed-companies-could-relieve-cow-burp-methane-problem
Floccina
Aug 19 2020 at 3:08pm
And some seem to think nitrogen fixing corn is on the way.
Robert EV
Aug 19 2020 at 3:30pm
That is truly amazing.
Mactoul
Aug 20 2020 at 1:47am
Fiddling with cows’ natural biology isn’t going to be productive and would certainly result in undesirable side-effects. I note that one product in the link that when fed to cows lead to production of CO2 instead of methane.
Bovine methane is a pseudo-problem in itself. Before there were many humans, there were vast herds of methane-producing herbivores. So, it is doubtful that a lot of excess methane is produced by animals now.
Robert EV
Aug 20 2020 at 1:34pm
Both researchers and the market disagree with you.
The source doesn’t matter, the flux does. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Francesco_Tubiello/publication/335241185/figure/fig5/AS:793622144368641@1566225672404/Global-Methane-Budget-for-the-2008-2017-decades-Both-bottom-up-left-and-top-down.png
Phil H
Aug 20 2020 at 5:56am
I agree with the idea that markets and the environment are ultimately aligned over the long term. But the idea that any policy which isn’t an instant and complete fix is therefore a bad policy doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Incremental improvements are a major part of how the sausage gets made.
Thomas Hutcheson
Aug 20 2020 at 10:04am
The post does not address the fundamental point. Does the Obama rule or the Trump revision have a positive NPV if evaluated at the optimal rate of methane emission tax?
Knut P. Heen
Aug 21 2020 at 11:02am
My impression is that the CH4 (methane) emissions from agriculture are not emissions to the atmosphere on the margin.
The cow eats grass and farts CH4. That is usually the story we are told. However, if we left the grass to decompose in the fields, it would produce the same amount of either CO2 or CH4 depending on the access to oxygen in the decomposition process.
There is a fixed budget of carbon atoms in the fields (which actually comes from the CO2 in the air through photosynthesis).
The CH4 is produced by bacteria both in the belly of the cow and in compost. It is not the same bacteria but similar ones.
Hence, the cow does not contribute to emissions on the margin. The natural methane emissions from wetland areas are substantial due to anaerobe decomposition.
Comments are closed.