Courtesy of a lovely little article in Lapham’s Quarterly titled “Beware of Cranks” I have recently discovered the incredibly useful “Crackpot Index” developed in 1992 by the physicist John C. Baez as a way of computing precisely how nutty the nutty theories of various amateur mathematicians are.
Mathematicians apparently have a particular need for this kind of rating system. A similar crackpot index exists for theories specifically about prime numbers, and an earlier index—more narrative in style—appeared in 1962.
It occurs to me that with relatively few alterations, any of these Crackpot Indexes could be adapted for the assessment of theoreticians in economics, which might prove useful as we enter another heated political season.
I leave said alterations as an exercise for the comments section as my PhD is in literature, and therefore my crackpottedness is proven by assumption.
So what do you think? What should the economics Crackpot Index look like?
The Crackpot Index
John Baez
- A -5 point starting credit.
- 1 point for every statement that is widely agreed on to be false.
- 2 points for every statement that is clearly vacuous.
- 3 points for every statement that is logically inconsistent.
- 5 points for each such statement that is adhered to despite careful correction.
- 5 points for using a thought experiment that contradicts the results of a widely accepted real experiment.
- 5 points for each word in all capital letters (except for those with defective keyboards).
- 5 points for each mention of “Einstein”, “Hawkins” or “Feynmann”.
- 10 points for each claim that quantum mechanics is fundamentally misguided (without good evidence).
- 10 points for pointing out that you have gone to school, as if this were evidence of sanity.
- 10 points for beginning the description of your theory by saying how long you have been working on it. (10 more for emphasizing that you worked on your own.)
- 10 points for mailing your theory to someone you don’t know personally and asking them not to tell anyone else about it, for fear that your ideas will be stolen.
- 10 points for offering prize money to anyone who proves and/or finds any flaws in your theory.
- 10 points for each new term you invent and use without properly defining it.
- 10 points for each statement along the lines of “I’m not good at math, but my theory is conceptually right, so all I need is for someone to express it in terms of equations”.
- 10 points for arguing that a current well-established theory is “only a theory”, as if this were somehow a point against it.
- 10 points for arguing that while a current well-established theory predicts phenomena correctly, it doesn’t explain “why” they occur, or fails to provide a “mechanism”.
- 10 points for each favorable comparison of yourself to Einstein, or claim that special or general relativity are fundamentally misguided (without good evidence).
- 10 points for claiming that your work is on the cutting edge of a “paradigm shift”.
- 20 points for emailing me and complaining about the crackpot index. (E.g., saying that it “suppresses original thinkers” or saying that I misspelled “Einstein” in item 8.)
- 20 points for suggesting that you deserve a Nobel prize.
- 20 points for each favorable comparison of yourself to Newton or claim that classical mechanics is fundamentally misguided (without good evidence).
- 20 points for every use of science fiction works or myths as if they were fact.
- 20 points for defending yourself by bringing up (real or imagined) ridicule accorded to your past theories.
- 20 points for naming something after yourself. (E.g., talking about the “The Evans Field Equation” when your name happens to be Evans.)
- 20 points for talking about how great your theory is, but never actually explaining it.
- 20 points for each use of the phrase “hidebound reactionary”.
- 20 points for each use of the phrase “self-appointed defender of the orthodoxy”.
- 30 points for suggesting that a famous figure secretly disbelieved in a theory which he or she publicly supported. (E.g., that Feynman was a closet opponent of special relativity, as deduced by reading between the lines in his freshman physics textbooks.)
- 30 points for suggesting that Einstein, in his later years, was groping his way towards the ideas you now advocate.
- 30 points for claiming that your theories were developed by an extraterrestrial civilization (without good evidence).
- 30 points for allusions to a delay in your work while you spent time in an asylum, or references to the psychiatrist who tried to talk you out of your theory.
- 40 points for comparing those who argue against your ideas to Nazis, stormtroopers, or brownshirts.
- 40 points for claiming that the “scientific establishment” is engaged in a “conspiracy” to prevent your work from gaining its well-deserved fame, or suchlike.
- 40 points for comparing yourself to Galileo, suggesting that a modern-day Inquisition is hard at work on your case, and so on.
- 40 points for claiming that when your theory is finally appreciated, present-day science will be seen for the sham it truly is. (30 more points for fantasizing about show trials in which scientists who mocked your theories will be forced to recant.)
- 50 points for claiming you have a revolutionary theory but giving no concrete testable predictions.
READER COMMENTS
Matthias Görgens
Oct 18 2019 at 12:49pm
Well, in economics you sure should get lots of crackpot points for theories that imply it’s easy to make lots of money from flaws in financial markets.
(Unless you are obscenely rich from doing just that.)
Jon Murphy
Oct 18 2019 at 1:01pm
Ok. I’m at +5 right now. not bad
Jon Murphy
Oct 18 2019 at 1:45pm
In all seriousness, a properly calibrated econ crackpot index could be a useful check on one’s ego.
Colin Steitz
Oct 20 2019 at 12:35pm
I guess crackpot and hairbrained are close in definitions but not close enough.
Only +5.
William Connolley
Oct 18 2019 at 1:21pm
> points for each mention of “Einstein”, “Hawkins” or “Feynmann”.
Ah, but who are the three economists to use?
Mark Z
Oct 18 2019 at 7:43pm
I’m not sure who the best analogies would be, but making references to George Stiglitz or Joseph Stigler (or Larry Sumner/Scott Summers) ought to add some points.
Matthias Görgens
Oct 18 2019 at 9:40pm
Do you mean Scott Sumner?
Mark Z
Oct 19 2019 at 2:52am
I was making a joke about conflating economists with similar names but very different positions as a possible ‘crackpot’ indicator.
IVV
Oct 18 2019 at 1:43pm
Ah, how I miss the days of Usenet and Archimedes Plutonium!
john hare
Oct 18 2019 at 4:17pm
Not in economics, (I hope) but I think I might be well into the triple digits in my rocketry/spaceflight hobby.
artifex
Oct 18 2019 at 4:31pm
It never occurred to me before, but this one should absolutely not be part of the index!
David Henderson
Oct 18 2019 at 6:18pm
I agree. This one is the opposite of crack pottery.
robc
Oct 18 2019 at 7:06pm
If you don’t pay out, it is.
David Henderson
Oct 18 2019 at 11:51pm
Obviously.
Jon Murphy
Oct 19 2019 at 12:18pm
I think there’s a distinction to be made. Sometimes the bet made is in bad faith: either the person has created an unfalsifiable hypothesis or the terms of their bet are such that the bet does nothing to demonstrate the validity of the theory.
For example, I once read something by a person claiming that the optimal tariff was a “free lunch” and that free trade should be abandoned. They went to prove this by merely repeating the geometric proof of the optimal tariff. In response to any criticism, they merely repeated “if you find a mathematical error in my proof, I will pay!” Any criticism was rebuffed by reference to the mathematical prowess of the model.
Of course, the objections to the optimal tariff model do not rely on some hidden mathematical mistake. They rely on the assumptions the mathematical proof is based upon and the subsequent normative conclusions drawn from the proof. But the bet this person was offering did not allow for that kind of falsification; I contend the bet was not made in good faith since the terms of the bet excluded any possibility he was wrong.
When rejiggering the index, we could probably fold in #13 into other things.
john hare
Oct 19 2019 at 7:27pm
In blogging on my spaceflight hobby, I offered $100.00 for a mathematical proof that confirmed or refuted this wonderful theory I had. I think it was something like three days later I sent the money to a guy that linked to a paper that proved it wrong. Much easier on the nerves than trying to figure it all out by myself, especially considering that the concept was well beyond my mathematical capabilities. Kept me from spending months on a dead end. I’ll wear those points with no qualms.
Cranky not crankish
Oct 18 2019 at 4:52pm
Somebody send this to Stephanie Kelton and the MMT crowd.
Juan Manuel Pérez Porrúa Pérez
Oct 19 2019 at 2:15am
Some proposals:
50 points if your model predicts an infinity of equilibria.
10 additional points for having an uncountably infinite set of equilibria.
50 points for each unmeasurable parameter used to restrict the set of equilibria.
Tracy W
Oct 21 2019 at 8:07pm
Definitely number 26.
+1 for every reference to classical/neoclassical economics.
+10 for asserting that economics needs less mathematical rigour while ignoring general equilibrium impacts
+10 for equating more money with more resources
+20 for describing how we need a new economics that is environmentalist/feminist/anti-racist/etc without stating any actual new hypothesis
+10 for every assumption that Keynesians necessarily disagree with neoclassical microeconomics
+10 for assuming that economists believe that people only value money
+5 for spelling out that GDP is not a measure of welfare in a way that implies that this will surprise economists
+5 for assuming that EMH means that economists think that markets always give the right answer
+10 for assuming irrational behaviour on the behalf of other people without outlining what steps you have taken to check that you might be the irrational one
+20 for assuming/arguing that other people don’t change their minds in response to new information without specifying at what point in your experiment/analysis you came to this conclusion.
Tim Worstall
Oct 22 2019 at 11:08am
1) Your point is covered in Adam Smith 0 points
2) Your point is an interesting footnote to Smith minus 1 point
3) Anything else plus 1 point.
Positive scores indicate crackpotness.
Michael Rulle
Oct 29 2019 at 9:30am
This is excellent. You should include a category of “50 points for those who have an excessive attraction to this topic”. Also, 50 points for those who assert point 37 applies to string theory, if they simultaneously quote Lee Smolin without having read anything by him—-other than the book jacket on Amazon.
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