Co-blogger Pierre Lemieux writes:
It should be pretty obvious that the president’s power to set world prices is (fortunately) nil.
It’s actually not obvious. In fact, it’s false.
The reason has to do with 3 things:
First, the U.S. president has a lot of power over oil exploration and drilling.
Second, the U.S. produces a large percent of the world’s oil and so a substantial percentage increase or decrease in U.S. production is a significant increase or decrease in world production.
Third, the world demand for oil is highly inelastic, which means that small percentage changes in world output due to shifts in supply can cause substantial changes in world prices.
I’ll use the same data source that Pierre drew on for his post. In 2022, U.S. oil production was just shy of 18 million barrels per day and world oil production was just shy of 94 mbd. So imagine that if President Biden had not shut off some new sources of oil production, U.S. output would have been 20 mbd by now, an increase of about 10 percent. That extra 2 mbd would have been an increase in world output of about 2 percent. With an elasticity of world demand for oil of -0.2, a standard estimate, world oil prices would have been 10 percent lower. On a price of $80 per barrel, that would have been a reduction of about $8 per barrel. That’s significant. It’s certainly much more than “nil.”
READER COMMENTS
Jon Murphy
Aug 12 2023 at 10:19am
I think “set” is the key word here. Without speaking for Pierre, I am sure he’d agree that the President (or any political decision-maker of an oil-rich nation) can influence oil prices through different policies.
But “set” implies that Biden chooses the price of oil and thus is blameworthy for the various spikes or drops in oil prices.
Let’s take your example and assume an increase in the supply of oil from looser drilling policies. All else held equal, we would see a drop in price. But the daily events of the market will cause price fluctuations in oil. Maybe the price vacilates around $70/bbl versus $80/bbl, but the price at any given point is dependent on market forces rather than the policies of the President. Biden cannot set prices. Prices even defy the OPEC cartel. Market prices are influenced, but not set, by politics. I understood Pierre’s point to be more about setting (and thus determining blame) rather than influencing prices.
David Henderson
Aug 12 2023 at 10:31am
Interesting take. I wonder if Pierre would agree with your interpretation.
Pierre Lemieux
Aug 13 2023 at 11:41am
David: Yes, Jon is right. I wrote “set” because I thought that “control” could be interpreted as “influence,” which is too wide. And note that whatever the president does that influences investment only works in the longer run–and probably after a presidential term, so the president’s incentives are dampened. What he cares about is the coming election. If a president wanted to control, and certainly to “set,” the price of oil in the short run, only import or export controls would work. Your point about elasticity of demand is good, but note that it is higher after the short run.
David Henderson
Aug 13 2023 at 2:35pm
Thanks, Pierre.
Richard W Fulmer
Aug 12 2023 at 10:49am
While it’s certainly true that the president can’t “set” world oil prices, it’s a bit of a straw man; no one with any knowledge of world oil markets or of economics would ever make such a claim. If you look at the comments by people who disagreed with Dr. Lemieux’s statement, all argued that the president can “affect” prices. To your point, however, Lemieux’s response to one such comment was exactly as you say:
In his post, he noted that the president can “influence” world oil prices, but that he could do so only through collusion:
I think that Dr. Henderson’s post rebuts this claim. The president has ways to influence world prices other than “horse trading” with OPEC.
Jon Murphy
Aug 12 2023 at 4:56pm
Which doesn’t mean the claim is not popular nonetheless. No one who understands the price system would claim minimum wage works, and yet it remains a popular claim
Jim Glass
Aug 12 2023 at 3:46pm
Yes, as in so many cases in life, the argument really seems to be about language and degree. Biden could act with an explicit motive to “set” the price of oil 10% lower than it would otherwise be, other things being equal, and succeed. But is that really “setting” the price of oil? Discuss. 🙂
Jon Murphy
Aug 12 2023 at 4:55pm
For the reasons I discuss above, I do not think it’s merely an issue of semantics
Fazal Majid
Aug 12 2023 at 3:59pm
I don’t think anyone has had the power to set the price of oil since the days of the Texas Railroad Commission.
Don Boudreaux
Aug 12 2023 at 12:44pm
For what it’s worth, my interpretation of Pierre’s post – and, specifically, of the word “set” – is the same as that of Jon.
Earl Richards
Aug 12 2023 at 12:44pm
The oil speculators and oil traders control and manipulate the oil prices for themselves and for Big Oil. BP is the largest oil trader and Shell is the second largest.
Richard W Fulmer
Aug 12 2023 at 2:47pm
While oil traders and speculators can affect oil prices, they don’t “control” them any more than the president does. Saudi Aramco is, by far, the largest oil company in the world. Shell and bp are insignificant by comparison:
https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/the-largest-oil-and-gas-companies-in-the-world/
Earl Richards
Aug 12 2023 at 11:27pm
The oil trading departments of BP and Shell are much larger than Saudi Aramco trading department.
David Seltzer
Aug 12 2023 at 2:55pm
Earl: “The oil speculators and oil traders control and manipulate the oil prices for themselves and for Big Oil. BP is the largest oil trader and Shell is the second largest.” I don’t understand your comment. A little sleuthing; OPEC current member states hold about 80% of the world’s proven oil reserves. Several major oil producing countries including Russia have aligned with the group to form an alliance known as OPEC+. OPEC produces about 40% of the world’s crude oil and its members’ exports make up around 60% of global petroleum trade. The group aims to regulate global oil prices by coordinating on reductions or increases in production. As for speculators, to speculate is to form a theory or conjecture about a subject without firm evidence. I was an oil trader on the NYMEX some years ago. Standing in a crowd of traders who speculated, hedged or took delivery, we managed risk as best we could with current and expected information. The terms contango and backwardation are used relative to expected future price. If we controlled prices we all would be extremely wealthy. In fact some of the speculators and traders lost large fortunes.
Jon Murphy
Aug 12 2023 at 3:02pm
We do?! Why didn’t anyone tell me? I wouldn’t have taken a loss earlier (or in 2015) this year if I knew I could just manipulate oil prices.
Dylan
Aug 12 2023 at 5:29pm
I hope whenyou’re talking about speculating on oil prices, you’re doing it via investment (or shorting) companies involved in oil production in some way, and not directly buying oil futures or something like that? Oil is a hard commodity for a retail investor to play well, since you can be 100% correct about the future price and still lose money.
Jon Murphy
Aug 12 2023 at 5:45pm
Yes. My retirement portfolio has some oil companies in it
Earl Richards
Aug 12 2023 at 11:44pm
Google and read, “The $2.5 Trillion Oil Scam – SlideShare.” The speculators control and manipulate the Brent price and the WTI price, but not OPEC prices.
Jim Glass
Aug 12 2023 at 3:57pm
Oh, so that’s why the price of oil never goes down except when Big Oil wants it to … and why the Five Majors lost $76 billion in 2020 — they wanted to! Why did nobody tell me?
Earl Richards
Aug 12 2023 at 5:43pm
The pandemic caused the oil price to drop. The speculators and traders cause the price to go up for just about any reason. Google and read, “The $2.5 Trillion Oil Scam – SlideShare.”
Jon Murphy
Aug 12 2023 at 5:46pm
So, why didn’t they stop oil prices from going negative? Why did they let oil prices generally fall for the past year?
Jim Glass
Aug 12 2023 at 11:55pm
I’m an open minded guy, so I tried. Couldn’t find it.
I did find you posting this exact same comment over, over and over again back until at least 2012.
Dude, it’s time to get yourself another comment, a this-decade source (that you can actually cite), another hobby horse…
Earl Richards
Aug 13 2023 at 11:32pm
The drop in the oil price to around $70 was probably caused by an over supply. The increase in the oil price from $70 to $83 was caused by the speculators trading crude oil futures.
Jon Murphy
Aug 14 2023 at 7:37am
Therefore, speculators do not set the price, QED.
Matthias
Aug 13 2023 at 9:04pm
If traders and speculators control the oil price in the interest of ‘Big Oil’, why is the oil price so low, then?
Why not a million dollars per barrel?
Thomas Hutcheson
Aug 12 2023 at 5:02pm
This is a matter of short v long run. When folks complain about a spike in gasoline prices and blame Biden, that’s just stupid. On the other hand trying affect the emission of CO2 and methane by raising regulatory hurdles to fossil fuel production and distribution is equally just stupid.
Earl Richards
Aug 12 2023 at 9:25pm
The price probably dropped because of an over supply. The speculators control the price but not the production of oil.
Jon Murphy
Aug 12 2023 at 10:52pm
Production is one of the elements of price. If they cannot control production, they cannot control price.
Earl Richards
Aug 12 2023 at 11:31pm
The speculators and traders do not control the production and supply of oil.
Jon Murphy
Aug 13 2023 at 8:05am
And therefore do not set the price, QED.
Aaron W
Aug 12 2023 at 5:12pm
Set, no, influence, yes.
The comments on this post are hilariously predictable. What is it about the price of oil that makes people so irrational in a way they aren’t about other commodities like, say, corn?
dennis
Aug 14 2023 at 9:50pm
I’m not sure I understand how oil prices change. Nor do I understand how corn prices change. I wish I could find a good resource explaining how commodities work (usually when I search all I find is how to invest in commodities). Perhaps someone can illumine me. My understanding so far is that commodities are sold somewhat like T-bills or a regular old auction where bidders determine price based on the current supply and demand. I think that’s how corn works? If there is a bumper crop of corn and the supply is higher than demand, the price drops. If there are crop failures or a reduction in acres planted and the harvest is below demand then the price rises. Oil supply is not so dependent on weather but mostly by political factors and mainly manipulation of supply levels by cartels such as OPEC. The inelastic demand of oil means that prices are greatly influenced by perturbations in supply, just like with corn. But it seems there are other factors like futures traders that apparently speculate on the price a year from now. Not sure how that works. Also the supply of oil depends on investors supplying operating capital. So it seems to me like a president can definitely affect oil prices by indirect means. He can decrease supply by threatening to put oil companies out of business in a few years making it so that investors don’t want to invest. And as Biden has shown, he can drain our SPR of oil to boost supply in the hopes of lowering prices. There are many factors in oil prices, but it seems that one of them in NOT that oil companies are jacking up prices. We are often told to blame the oil companies for greed when prices go up, but there is never an explanation why those supposedly greedy corps allow prices to go down, sometimes way down. Apparently they decided to be the opposite of greedy? But my main comment here is that I wish someone could explain it to me or direct me to a simple resource that quickly gives an overview of how corn and oil are traded and how prices can be affected.
Ahmed Fares
Aug 12 2023 at 10:46pm
Don’t forget the Keystone XL pipeline.
This from an econlib article by Richard McKenzie titled: “Restarting the Keystone Pipeline TODAY will lower gas prices TODAY.” I noticed David Henderson was mentioned in that article.
https://www.econlib.org/restarting-the-keystone-pipeline-today-will-lower-gas-prices-today/
Thomas L Hutcheson
Aug 13 2023 at 9:57am
Like many discussions, it can become silly if divorced from policy analysis. Who cares if Presidents “set” prices or not? The questions are should the US be buying or selling oil from the SPR? Should there be price controls on gasoline? Should the federal excise tax on gasoline be raised or lowered, permanently or temporally? What kind of environmental regulations should be applied to fossil fuel production or distribution projects? What is the optimum tax on net emissions of CO2 and methane?
Jon Murphy
Aug 13 2023 at 11:40am
I agree that many conversations become silly if divorced from policy analysis. But, likewise, policy analysis becomes silly if divorced from political economy. No discussion of policy analysis is complete without exploring the incentives of the political decision makers. All your questions ignore the incentives of political decision makers. You do not ask the overarching question: should politics get involved? Would government intervention really lead to superior outcomes (however defined*)? You just assume the answer is “yes,” but you have yet to give a single reason why you assume so.
So, give us that analysis.
*Defining what constitutes a superior outcome is also a question that needs to be asked.
steve
Aug 13 2023 at 1:47pm
“So imagine that if President Biden had not shut off some new sources of oil production, U.S. output would have been 20 mbd by now”
I would expect the oil companies to act in their own best interest. If the oil companies think that it is likely that demand may decrease in the near future, as an example, they may hold off producing more even if they had access to anywhere they wanted to drill since it costs money to develop and drill. In the most recent case the oil companies had plenty of land leased to explore but with so many people predicting a recession by now after facing a period of decreased global demand during the pandemic one could hardly blame them for caution.
Totally agree the POTUS can influence prices. Just invade Saudi Arabia and see what happens.
Steve
diz
Aug 14 2023 at 11:49am
I don’t think anyone would seriously argue the President can “set” world oil price or that the President can’t “affect” world oil price. As I mentioned in the other thread, I work in the energy business and evaluate investments in the field. Policy clearly has an impact on supply, both in terms of ease of getting permits for drilling and logistical projects and in terms of the ability to raise capital. In the US, state level regulations often have more impact on supply than Federal. CA and NY have basically killed the shale boom in their states, for example. To some extent this results in and is offset by more drilling in places like TX and ND, but from an Economics 101 standpoint taking some supply options off the table changes the supply curve and is going to increase price – just a question of how much.
Jon Murphy
Aug 14 2023 at 12:11pm
And yet, many people do. I see pictures of Biden on gas pumps all the time that point to the price and say “I did that!”
diz
Aug 14 2023 at 5:05pm
Heh, but “I did that” is pretty non-specific enough about what “that” is…
As mentioned in the other thread, Democrats at the federal and state level are pretty open about their intent to restrict oil and gas development so I don’t think it’s a wild stretch to assume there is less supply — and higher prices — due to their policies. They would probably say that’s a good thing.
Jon Murphy
Aug 15 2023 at 6:47am
It’s pointing right at the price, so it’s quite specific.
diz
Aug 15 2023 at 4:39pm
Well, if you take “I did that” to mean “Biden made this price be $3.57” then of course it’s wildly inaccurate. But if you take “I did that” to mean “Biden’s policies made this price higher” then I think it’s somewhat true. I tend to see it as more the latter, not something to be taken literally.
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