A photograph published in Monday’s Wall Street Journal shows supporters of Boris Johnson, the incoming British prime minister, brandishing signs saying “We Voted Leave.” Problem is, against the 51.9% of the voters who did vote “Leave,” 48.1% voted “Remain.” If you further consider that the referendum turnout was 72.2%, these numbers reduce to 37.5% and 34.7% respectively: about a third of the electorate voted one way, a third the other way. (See BBC, “EU Referendum Results.”) Why should such a slim majority (and a fortiori a mere plurality) allow the winners to impose their preferences on the minority? Is there a divine right of the majority?
One answer is that to avoid conflict, a procedure is required to decide public choices, and majority voting is such a procedure. This may be true in some cases, such as choosing the person or group who will run the government, as Hayek argued (see his Law, Legislation and Liberty). But it is doubtful that such a blunt procedure can pacify two nearly equal groups of individuals who consider an issue to be fundamental to their welfare. A related danger is that Leviathan will likely strengthen his power under the excuse of controlling the effects of conflict.
One way out of the problem is to require a procedure that, in some sense, is consented to by everybody: this corresponds to the contractarian view of the state, defended by James Buchanan among others. At least in a modern, diversified society (as opposed to a tribe), however, unanimous consent is difficult to obtain on a rule that could be used by one group to dominate another.
The choice between Brexit or non-Brexit seems to belong to the domain of very contentious issues. Half the United Kingdom’s voting population thinks that Brexit will produce the land of Cockayne they want, while the other alternative would bring foreign tyranny. The other half believes that European Union membership gives them the Cockaygne continent they want as opposed to local tyranny. Or I should write “nearly half” because a small part of the British public certainly prefers another alternative.
For there exists another alternative to collective choices within the UK or within the EU. There is an alternative to totalitarian democracy (as Bertrand de Jouvenel called modern political regimes). This alternative is to extirpate individuals from the binary choice between two totalitarian democracies; to work towards a political system that will leave individuals as free as possible to make their own choices according to their own preferences (for example, by making each one free to reach his own trade deals). It is far from clear whether British or European totalitarian democracy is the best, or least bad, route towards this goal.
We can understand the two opposite opinions or, perhaps more accurately, the two emotional storms. On the one hand, it is somewhat satisfactory to observe the repudiation of the previous statist establishment. On the other hand, it is tempting to see the EU’s heavy institutions as a bulkwark against statist populism.
In practice, advocates of constitutional—that is, limited—democracy have proposed that collective choices that seem unavoidable (such as which state will rule over a given patch of land) and are deeply divisive should be submitted to a super-majority rule. It is useful, in this context, to remember that in the 1975 referendum, 67.2% of British voters approved the government’s decision to join the European Economic Community (precursor of the EU).
Since 1975, of course, British public opinion may well have changed along with the changes in European arrangements. But British public opinion may also have changed after the 2016 Brexit referendum. Moreover, as social choice theory has shown, public opinion may change without any individual changing his own opinion (see my post “Condorcet’s Brexit” on this blog).
These further considerations only reduce the sanctity that we should attach to collective choices, including majority choices.
READER COMMENTS
N
Jul 24 2019 at 11:54am
Sounds like what this post is advocating for is legal secession. Isn’t that what Brexit was – secession from an international governing body that was unilaterally imposing rules and regulations on its member states without any recourse to the citizens they affect?
If the 48.1% who voted “Remain” want to secede from the United Kingdom and join the EU (as much of Scotland wants to do), that sounds rather compatible with contractarianism, right?
Michael Pettengill
Jul 24 2019 at 12:36pm
You fail to properly describe the divide.
As a BBC listener (NPR overnight), it’s clear that each country in the UK voted substantially one way or the other.
Scotland voted remain by 62%
Greater London voted remain by 60%
Northern Ireland voted remain by 56%
Wales, England, Gibraltar voted leave by 53%
Carrying out Brexit, especially hard brexit would likely lead Scotland quickly breaking out of the UK to seek rejoining the EU, and possibly Ireland unifying and breaking from the UK seek to rejoin the EU.
Scotland debated leaving the UK, but the risk of not gaining EU membership seamlessly tipped the scales against. If the UK is out of the EU, then the cost of leaving the UK is much lower with the prospect of rejoining the EU tipping the scales for independence.
And breaking up the UK is most consistent with the arguments for brexit.
John Alcorn
Jul 24 2019 at 1:10pm
Two more problems of simple majority rule in a single-issue referendum:
1) Simple majority rule ignores differences among voters in preference intensity; i.e., how deeply a voter cares about the issue. Casual observation suggests that preference intensity is not randomly distributed on divisive issues like Brexit, abortion, gun control, immigration, and so on.
A sophisticated collective-decision procedure, quadratic voting, can integrate equal voting power and preference intensity (mimicking logrolling), but doesn’t apply to an isolated single-issue referendum.
2) Simple majority rule ignores preference instability. For example, a new Brexit referendum might yield a different outcome.
Some constitutions require two successive ballots in some types of collective decision, with a cooling period between the ballots, in order to elicit more deliberate, settled preferences.
Settled preferences nonetheless may be intense!
robc
Jul 24 2019 at 1:34pm
The Southern Baptist Convention (used to, maybe still does) uses the system of votes in two consecutive conventions to make major changes. What usually happens is a big margin the first time and a tight margin the second. The first is the “moral” vote. We oppose X. The second is a more nuanced vote where many of the churches who voted against X the first time don’t want to impose that choice on the individual churches, so vote differently the 2nd time around.
Especially since the convention itself is a loose collection of individual churches who will just leave if they really dislike a decision.
So you will get a measure to pass 80-20 the first time, and then it will fail 40-60 the second time. The first vote allows the churches to express their preference and encourage the offending churches to follow along without mandating it.
John Alcorn
Jul 24 2019 at 1:55pm
Fascinating! Strategic use of expressive voting in the first ballot must feel almost like heaven. Thanks for sharing the example and your analysis.
Pierre Lemieux
Jul 27 2019 at 12:34am
John: I would say that the first vote is “strategic” but, as robc said, that it is moral. (Strategic voting is impossible anyway in a large electorate, like at the level of a country.) By the way, in the British parliamentary system, the adoption of a law requires three readings, the second one being on the principle of the law.
Mark Brophy
Jul 24 2019 at 2:56pm
Nevada uses successive voting. How well has it worked for them?
Pierre Lemieux
Jul 27 2019 at 12:23am
Interesting ideas.
robc
Jul 24 2019 at 1:27pm
I would assume there was not unanimous support to join the EU in the first place.
Mark Brady
Jul 24 2019 at 2:23pm
There was never a majority to join the EU, let alone unanimous support. The 1975 referendum was about confirming UK membership of the European Economic Community. The EEC was perceived as very different from what is now the European Union.
Michael Pettengill
Jul 27 2019 at 10:50am
Just as with the US. If the US Constitution had a specific procedure for States to exit the Union as the EU agreement does, you would be making the same argument for any State split on leaving. After all, the deal agreed to was elite white men get to own, or at least control, everyone else, and thus the US today is not what was agreed to.
And Puerto Rico is stuck in a situation it didn’t agree to when the US annexed it by force as a territory. Unlike the UK, it has little say over its treatment by the US, but the losses from gaining independence would be huge. If PR becomes a State, it will have only a 2% say it its fate, while the UK has a 3% say.
Of course, California, bigger than the UK, has a mere 2% say in the US. But that’s better than when California was annexed by force to be like PR.
Mark Brady
Jul 24 2019 at 2:40pm
Pierre, what if there is no supermajority for either membership of the European Union or for leaving the EU?
You write that, “It is useful, in this context, to remember that in the 1975 referendum, 67.2% of British voters approved the government’s decision to join the European Economic Community (precursor of the EU).”
Three observations. 1. The 1975 referendum had a turnout of 64.62%. The 2016 referendum had a turnout of 72.21%. 2. The composition of the electorate changed enormously in the 41 years between 1975 and 2016. 3. Although the European Economic Community was the precursor of the European Union, is that any more useful than to point out that the Weimar Republic was the precursor of the Third Reich?
Pierre Lemieux
Jul 27 2019 at 12:25am
Mark: You are right that my illustration of qualified majorities was imprudent.
Jon Murphy
Jul 24 2019 at 5:12pm
This post reminds me of a quote from the Great Scot, Adam Smith from his Lectures on Jurisprudence (Pg. 427 of the Liberty Fund edition):
Weir
Jul 24 2019 at 6:46pm
You could use 1860 as an example. Instead of 66 votes against Abraham Lincoln, the number was 60.2 out of 100 votes and four candidates. But I wouldn’t call Lincoln the most odious out of those four, even though Smith would, with his more specific meaning of “odious.”
Weir
Jul 24 2019 at 6:59pm
Jean-Claude Juncker long ago explained that voting has nothing to do with it: “We decide on something, leave it lying around and wait and see what happens. If no one kicks up a fuss, because most people don’t understand what has been decided, we continue step by step until there is no turning back.”
He was specifically talking about the imposition of the single currency, but that’s the logic he’s always operated on. There’s no proportion of any electorate that would make any difference to how “we” go about it. And when he says “we” he’s talking about a very specific group of divinely-empowered people.
poorlando
Jul 25 2019 at 12:17am
This reminds me of something written by the former mayor of San Francisco Willie Brown. In reference to the cost overruns in building the Transbay Terminal (a $2 billion bus terminal), he wrote that everybody always knew initial cost estimates were lowballing and that
MadJon
Jul 26 2019 at 6:13am
Let us not forget that we are partly in this mess because two previous governments (those of John Major and Tony Blair) neglected the constitutional requirements of joining the EU (via the Maastricht Treaty and then the Treaty of Lisbon) in the first place. That is, they both handed away significant chunks of power without holding referenda. Remember John Locke’s implacable rule of democracy: ’The Legislative cannot transfer the power of making laws to any other hands. For it being but a delegated power from the People, they who have it cannot pass it to others.’ (from the Second Treatise of Government). Read UK constitutional historian Vernon Bogdanor on the matter back in ’93.
Weir is right, the European politicians and bureaucrats who put the thing together have a history of saying funny things about democracy that do not play well with in England, at least. Another example, from Jean Rey, the former President of the EEC Commission, who said before the last referendum on the ECC in 1975 that, “A referendum on this matter consists of consulting people who don’t know the problems instead of consulting people who know them. I would deplore a situation in which the policy of this great country [the UK] should be left to housewives. It should be decided instead by trained and informed people.” I wonder what John Locke would have said about that?
Benjamin Cole
Jul 24 2019 at 8:08pm
Who knows if Brexit will work out well for the UK, or not?
But what concerns me is to see the right-wing, or perhaps what might be called Libertarians, quickly assemble themselves as apologists on any issue for globalism, economic stratification, and environmental degradation.
And, conversely, go silent as to the excesses that emanate from Beijing. Or even the US military – industrial – intelligence complex.
Nothing on the planet is so important as any minor infraction on the privileges of multinationals—-or so it seems from reading libertarian scribes.
dmm
Jul 25 2019 at 4:37am
Second attempt; first one hasn’t shown up.
Benjamin, I don’t know why you call those people libertarians. From what you wrote, they sound like crony capitalists. There’s a world of difference.
ASG
Jul 26 2019 at 9:38am
It’s very odd to present this as a choice.
1. There is no European democracy as such: the EU parliament can’t initiate legislation, it can only vote for or against.
2. There are no places in the EU that don’t have a national democratic system of government. Which is to say you can’t have the EU but not the national democratic system.
Essentially the choice is between having a national democratic system of government, or the same with another layer of super-national undemocratic government on top.
Of the two directions, fewer layers of government or more layers of government, it seem obvious to me that fewer layers of government is closer to your desired state of individual self-rule. I mean, is there really a school of libertarian thought that wants more layers of government as a mechanism of providing more freedom?
Pierre Lemieux
Jul 27 2019 at 12:17am
Isn’t a libertarian federalist school such a school?
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