The new British prime minister, Boris Johnson, is considered a dream politician by some conservatives, and a nightmare by many more. Boris is regarded as a messy organizer, a man affected by attention-deficit disorder, a beloved but not particularly effective mayor of London, an opportunist who chooses to be anti-EU not because of deep convictions but simply to prop his career up, and a demagogue. He is considered by many a clown, and he certainly did all he could to reinforce such an opinion. But he is also a literary figure who has written many books, whose subjects even include Churchill. (Though perhaps not great books, they are commercially successful ones.) He is also a journalist and the former editor of a substantial magazine, a politician with an impeccable cursus honorum. My, not particularly original, guess is that he is the kind of man who has been dreaming about living in Downing Street (or winning the Nobel prize for literature) since he was 5. A profound desire to leave a mark in history is not necessarily the best policy adviser – until a Margaret Thatcher comes by.
Boris’s first speech, outside of Downing Street, was pretty good – not surprisingly, given how many times he may have rehearsed it since he was 5. Three things impressed me:
- the clear mention of a new deal to be worked out with Europe, putting a stop to all that no-deal nonsense;
- a reference to the post-Brexit UK as engaged in “a new and exciting partnership with the rest of Europe, based on free trade and mutual support”. Since the Brexit referendum, I came to suspect that a “free trade Brexit” was basically a fantasy of libertarian-ish conservative types. Yet it is good that the prime minister considers that the success of post-Brexit Britain rests on free(r) trade with the rest of the world. We’ll see if this is only a fantasy, or maybe not;
- a program of actions to improve public services, which shows that the new PM clearly considers his job to be bigger than Brexit.
Lars Christensen tweeted about this last point, highlighting how Boris’s strategy appears to be mainly about hiring more people: that is, as he correctly points out, more 1970s social democracy than Thatcherism. I think there is a good chance he’ll be right, at the end of the day: particularly if Brexit causes some hardship, a conservative government will feel pressure to open its wallet to please as many constituencies as possible and avoid any accusation being slaughtering the welfare state. Yet, if we limit ourselves to this first speech, Christensen’s remark is perhaps a bit over the top. How many new PMs do you know that open their first term by promising reductions in public employment?
Ryan Bourne in the Washington Post made an interesting point: Boris’s key feature is “an inherent buoyant attitude about the future. After years of media and self-inflicted gloom associated with Brexit-induced uncertainty, he sees the many positives Britain has to build on.” That was exactly the main theme of the first speech of the new prime minister.
Now, my chief takeaway from this age of populism is that we, classical liberals and libertarians, have a tendency to consider politics too much a matter of rules, and to forget how important character and leadership are. In a sense, our whole program is about devising institutions and rules that could overcome the impact of the worst possible leaders, from Constitutions to independent central banks. Classical liberalism is a conscious attempt to make leadership in politics basically redundant. Some of the things we tried were successful, most were not (how much bigger have governments become without changing a word of their Constitutions?, the late Tony de Jasay would ask). Yet when it comes to politics, people continue to long for leaders, for chiefs, and we need to cope with this, perhaps sad, fact.
I wrote a piece on Thatcher for CityJournal a few days ago. There I asked if Thatcher was a “populist”, or a forerunner of populism.
Was she a populist? Among those who define themselves as such, she stands as a symbolic figure because she was brought down in 1990 by the Tories’ europhile wing. Certainly, the British political establishment always looked down on this shopkeeper’s daughter. And yet Thatcher’s defining quality, and the reason why we still speak of Thatcherism, is that she told people things that they didn’t want to hear. She may have not liked the eurocrats in Brussels, or the Sir Humphrey Appleby-style bureaucrats at home, but she never told people that they could blame those bureaucrats, or anyone else, for their own faults or failures.
I am perhaps wrong, but I now consider this a more important point than it initially occurred to me. Does a leader appeal to people’s best hopes or their worst fears? Getting policies right, doing reform, let alone reforming a country in a free market direction, is never easy. It is not by chance that it does indeed happen quite rarely. But the fact a leader does one rather then the other thing tells a lot about her character, and her character signals quite a bit about where she may indeed “leading” the public debate. I am not particularly optimistic about Boris Johnson: actually, I am afraid that in the Brexit debates he did indeed played on people’s fears. I think Brexit is more a matter for tricky negotiators and picky lawyers than for self-aggrandizing politicians. Yet I do really hope Ryan Bourne is right about him and that his optimism may help in changing the tone of the contemporary conversation, both in England and in Europe.
READER COMMENTS
Shane L
Jul 25 2019 at 1:30pm
Alberto, I wonder what do you think are Johnson’s chances of negotiating a seriously improved deal for the UK by Halloween? I essentially take it for granted that he will fail to do in months what May could not do in years. Thus, I assume that he will either get some meaningless symbolic concession and claim victory, or leave without a deal, plunging the UK into disruption.
All in all, I am waiting to see what will happen with little hope that Johnson will solve the UK’s Brexit debacle, and fearful that the UK will continue to slide towards crisis.
Alberto Mingardi
Jul 25 2019 at 1:38pm
I share your concerns. I think he should aim for a make-up to the deal May negotiated, claiming some (minor) changes to be big improvements.
Mark Brady
Jul 26 2019 at 2:02am
Alberto writes, “I think he should aim for a make-up to the deal May negotiated, claiming some (minor) changes to be big improvements.”
In other words, lie, yes?
Alberto Mingardi
Jul 27 2019 at 3:21am
I do not want to enter in a conversation on Johnson’s (or any other politician’s) moral standards…
Since writing this, I’ve read a couple of things that suggest that there may be elections in the UK by October. So, another vote on Brexit (but will this time be clear what Brexit may mean?). See for example https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/07/23/boris-johnson-is-not-our-saviour/
Thaomas
Jul 26 2019 at 6:43am
It depends on what an “better” deal means. Johnson could certainly negotiate a deal that preserves almost total freedom of movement of goods, services and people. That would be “better” economically but not “better” if one wants to restrict flows, especially of people.
Scott Sumner
Jul 25 2019 at 1:53pm
Given Boris Johnson’s previous track record, I don’t see any reason to take anything he says seriously. In my view, the only way we will be able to discern his policies is to wait and see what he actually does in office. I have no idea what those policies will be, but I suspect they will not be the policies he ran on.
Benjamin Cole
Jul 25 2019 at 7:28pm
A nation can torture its economy through endless structural impediments, be they property zoning, or heavy payroll taxes on productive behavior , or programs to convert corn into fuel by federal ukase.
These programs draw mild and sporadic complaints.
But let a Trump or a Johnson explore changes in dubious global trade agreements, and the libertarians predict the end of the world.
In fact, given wondrous modern technologies, I think any large nation can easily adjust to declines in international trade volumes.
By the way, Singapore, which previously has imported nearly all its food, is implementing a state program to produce 30% of its food domestically. They are building multi-story greenhouses and other high-tech wonders.
Crazy? Maybe. Is Detroitification a better option?
Sam Bowman
Jul 26 2019 at 10:28am
I think this is a misunderstanding. Boris has been chosen (by hardline eurosceptic MPs and the Conservative Party membership) because he has promised to proceed with no deal unless the EU caves in on the Irish backstop, which it has so far shown no willingness to do.
It suits him to speak as if he wants a deal so that he can portray the EU as the unreasonable party (with some justification, in my opinion) to the British electorate. But no deal is most certainly a very real option and far more likely under Boris than it was under May or would have been under, say, Jeremy Hunt.
nobody.really
Jul 26 2019 at 10:28am
According to YouGov, “Just one in five (20%) [Britons] expect [Johnson] to be a good or great Prime Minister, compared to half (50%) who think he will be a poor or terrible one. Even amongst those who think he will be a new type of Prime Minister, 44% think he will be poor or terrible….”
Michael Pettengill
Jul 27 2019 at 12:05pm
Like Trump, Boris promises “only I can deliver endless free lunches”.
Brexit was the promise of endless free lunches.
A free lunch is benefits with zero cost. Eg, high income jobs with no cost to anyone.
Tim Worstall
Jul 28 2019 at 4:58am
Boris was a very good editor of The Spectator. Sure, a magazine isn’t a country. But he did it by hiring good people, giving them their head and allowing them to get on with it. Then culling those who didn’t work out.
Delegation that is.
When deputy editing The Telegraph (weekends and such like) he was known for not doing much observable work. Chatting around and so on but not, you know, work work. The paper was pretty good at that time.
My sources? I’ve freelanced or both outlets, but that’s not where I’m getting this from. Rather, from people who worked in them for a number of years when he was there.
The other thing to note is that he’s alarmingly bright. He was a King’s Scholar at Eton – that’s a very tough thing to qualify for. Classics at Balliol too – very tough indeed.
In terms of potential he’s definitely got it. Now, whether he fulfills it, of course that’s another matter…..
John B
Jul 28 2019 at 6:13am
‘… putting a stop to all that no-deal nonsense;‘
A deal depends on the goodwill of both parties who share the same aim.
The UK wants to leave the EU, the EU wants the UK to stay. There is no shared aim. Nor is there any goodwill on the part of the EU, otherwise the UK would be out by now with an acceptable deal. The EU believes, rightly, that if the UK leaves in favourable terms and is a success outside the EU, other Member States May be encouraged to do likewise. There is plenty of anti-EU sentiment around these days to make that a real possibility.
The EU is not interested in a deal that does not keep the UK de facto, within the EU subject to its regulatory and economic policies, and within the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
A deal is only possible if Boris accepts that. For him to do so means the destruction of his Party, and a very short term as Prime Minister.
So ‘no-deal’ is the likely outcome. The nonsense is believing getting one is entirely the choice of the UK and the EU plays no part.
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