The time just flew by during my conversation with Nassim Taleb. Here are a few questions I didn’t get to ask him:
1. Do you think the traditional academic curriculum is even worse than I say, because it creates a national intellectual monoculture, prone to experiencing negative Black Swans and missing positive Black Swans?
2. You write: “There is an ample academic literature trying to convince us that options are not rational to own because some options are overpriced, and they are deemed overpriced according to business school methods of computing risks that do not take into account the possibility of rare events.” This isn’t quite what I do when I compute education’s selfish and social returns, but would you apply the same critique to my estimates?
3. I’ve won both my public bets with Tyler. But he thinks that if I really knew what I was talking about, I’d already be a fabulously rich investor. I reply that, unfortunately, most of my superior insight is barely relevant to any available investment opportunity. I was thinking about this Caplan-Cowen dispute when you wrote, “Indeed many people lost their shirt from the drop of oil – while correctly predicting war. They just thought it was the same thing.” Care to comment?
4. It seems to me that every bite of food I eat is fragile in your sense. After all, any bite could be lethally poisonous, and if that possibility
ever materializes, I die. My inclination is to say, “Who cares about fragility, when the probability of poison is so low?” Is my complacency wrong – and if so, why?
READER COMMENTS
Mike Gibson
Apr 30 2018 at 4:17pm
Re (3) — I am running a fund dedicated to exploiting the knowledge contained in your work. We are shorting the higher education bubble by investing in people who don’t need to signal agreeableness and conformism to the labor market, namely the founders of companies with no credentials. We are doing extremely well. 🙂
Philo
Apr 30 2018 at 4:23pm
“Tyler . . . thinks that if I really knew what I was talking about, I’d already be a fabulously rich investor.†He doesn’t realize that, while you are savvier (smarter or more knowledgeable) than Tyler, you aren’t savvier than the market.
D F Linton
Apr 30 2018 at 9:32pm
Link to interview please….
wheeler
Apr 30 2018 at 9:36pm
Taleb’s answers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6LbaJURZPo
Was the original conversation recorded?
robc
May 1 2018 at 10:19am
Taleb is wrong on #4.
1. Genetic modification has been going on since the start of the agricultural revolution, if not sooner.
2. I am not replaceable. In whatever sense I am replaceable, my family is not. I would give up my life to save my daughter’s life, but the situation is very, very rare in which I would sacrifice my entire family’s life.
Victoria Fineberg
May 24 2018 at 12:44pm
Taleb is correct in #4, but in a more nuanced way than you interpret him.
Fasting is anti-fragilizing using the process of autophagy. Thus, eating is fragilizing, and every bite you eat is denying you of autophagy.
Clearly, you have to eat sometimes to maintain your life. The food you eat is Taleb’s “x.” It is something that you may not have control over or something that is too time consuming to control. With “x” you can use simple heuristics, such as “in a reputable American restaurant, the probability of food poisoning is negligible; with a street food vendor in Kolkata, it’s rather high.”
Fasting and autophagy are Taleb’s “f(x).” They clean up your organism off toxins and cellular damage. You can control this f(x).
Victoria
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