Ross Douthat recently made this comment on the politics of trade wars:
If you expect this to lead to good policymaking, you haven’t been paying attention to how this White House operates. But the fact that Trump has this particular incentive to focus on free trade’s Midwestern losers is not itself a bad thing. One of the strongest arguments for the countermajoritarian element in the Electoral College is that it provides a point of leverage for regional populations that have suffered particularly at the hands of an overreaching bipartisan consensus. And the bipartisan consensus on trade with China really is ripe for an updating, since the domestic costs have been higher and geopolitical benefits more meager than the expert class predicted 20 years ago.
I disagree with several of these claims:
1. While the domestic costs of China trade have been greater than anticipated, the same can be said for the domestic benefits. The net benefits from China trade are probably larger than most economists would have estimated 20 years ago. For 230 years the US economy has been based on Schumpeterian creative destruction, to a greater extent than most other countries. We should celebrate that fact.
2. The ability of the Electoral College to empower regional interests against the interests of America as a whole is a flaw in our system of government. In well-functioning countries, the government is able to adopt policies that boost the general welfare, even if certain specific groups suffer from increased competition. This is what differentiates a country like Denmark from a place like Greece. Throughout modern American history, the president (of either party) was more supportive of free trade than the Congress, precisely because he represented something closer to the national interest. The recent election was unusual, as the candidate with 2.9 million fewer total votes won due to the disproportionate influence of working class voters in rust belt states. That’s a flaw in our system, (and would still be a flaw if Clinton had beat Trump despite having fewer votes.)
3. I would add that the Electoral College also leads to a sense that one’s vote doesn’t matter, in about 80% of the country. I know that I felt that way when I voted in Massachusetts. If we had the sort of electoral system you see in other countries, where the president is the person who receives the most votes, then voters in both deep red and deep blue states would have been more motivated to go to the polls. Their votes would have mattered.
4. It’s still early in the Trump administration. The only other president in the past 100 years to be put in office due to the Electoral College overruling the majority vote was Bush in 2000. That administration is generally viewed as a failed presidency, especially in the foreign policy area where presidents have the greatest influence. Thus there is little empirical evidence for the superiority of the Electoral College (although admittedly there is also little evidence the other way.) Still, it’s an odd system that would never be adopted today if it weren’t written into the Constitution. The burden of proof is on its supporters. The default option should be majority vote, which best represents the “wisdom of crowds”. That’s how other countries select presidents.
Some people point to the importance of land, not people. They argue that 500,000 people in Wyoming should have more political influence than 500,000 people in the Bronx, because they occupy more land. Under one-man one-vote, states like New York would have more influence that Wyoming. In my view that’s a feature of one-man one-vote, not a bug. Each voter should have equal influence, not each acre of land. After all, nearly 45% of the continental US is used for either livestock grazing, farmland producing feedstock for US cows, or land producing food for foreign livestock. Should we give more weight to the political views of cows?
PS. This link also has some other interesting maps, showing land use in the US.
READER COMMENTS
Denver
Aug 8 2018 at 2:43pm
Mark me unconvinced. The notion that the median voter is in any way more knowledgeable and rational than the median electorate seems far fetched. At best it seems a wash, both are under strong incentives to remain ignorant and irrational about their policy preferences.
I also don’t see why the burden of proof falls on those arguing for the electoral college. If you’re the one advocating for changing the system, it seems reasonable to assume you bear the burden of proof. And I don’t see why other countries election mechanisms are relevant. If everyone else is jumping off a cliff, does that mean you should too? Maybe you don’t think popularly elected presidents are equivalent to “jumping off a cliff”, but then it seems as though it’s on you to prove why.
And while I don’t believe Scott’s claims about the president being more in favor of free trade, if true, I suspect that has a lot more to do with the fact that it’s easier for economists to convince one person he’s wrong about his economic intuitions than 500.
Robert EV
Aug 10 2018 at 12:50pm
Point to me the “median electorate” please.
The problem with any sort of median electorate is that it empowers the fringe voter. And the fringe voter doesn’t come close to representing anything median.
Max
Aug 8 2018 at 3:02pm
[Comment removed for supplying false email address. Email the webmaster@econlib.org to request restoring your comment privileges. A valid email address is required to post comments on EconLog and EconTalk.–Econlib Ed.]
John Hall
Aug 8 2018 at 3:43pm
There were a few lines that I strongly opposed…
“The burden of proof is on its supporters.”
Think of a criminal case. If I’m accused of a crime and the state does not prove my guilt, then I go free. The burden of proof is on the state. Correspondingly, we have a constitution that requires an amendment process to change. If not enough people are convinced that the amendment is good, then it does not change. Thus, the burden of proof is actually on the people who want to change it.
“The default option should be majority vote, which best represents the “wisdom of crowds”. ”
We don’t have majority rule. We have a constitutional framework that lets the majority get their way sometimes, but not all the time. That’s a good thing. Pure majority rule is a bad idea and should not be the default.
“That’s how other countries select presidents.”
It is well-established in political science that Parliamentary systems outperform Presidential systems. So the fact that other countries choose Presidents in a popular vote should not be a good standard to judge. Maybe the electoral college is one factor that keeps our Presidential system working?
I could go on, but those were the lines that really ticked me off.
Long story short, maybe instead of replacing the electoral college, we consider reforms to representation in Congress? A mixed member proportional system for the House of Representatives could allow people to join Congress from party lists. These lists are often selected on a national basis (though I can imagine a more complicated approach) that might give Congress a more national outlook.
Robert Coffey
Aug 8 2018 at 4:52pm
A agree but have some other suggestions — eliminate the capping of the HoR at 435 members, and make it more representative as it was meant to be, even if it means 4000 members of the house, or whatever.
If we are going to change the EC, the change I would like to see more states (or an amendment requiring) adopting the Maine/Nebraska method of choosing electors. It keeps the EC while allowing a state’s electors to be split. 2 ECs to the state winner, and 1 EC to the winner of each congressional district.
MikeW
Aug 10 2018 at 12:46pm
“Pure majority rule is a bad idea and should not be the default.” Amen.
Robert EV
Aug 10 2018 at 12:58pm
People say that but I haven’t seen anyone, ever, point out how the few majority rules legislative governments in the world are failing or rife with bad ideas (e.g. Glarus and Appenzell innerrhoden). And I don’t see much pressure to eliminate initiative, referendum, or recall in the US states which practice them.
Robert EV
Aug 10 2018 at 1:02pm
I’d prefer a system of larger congressional districts (or more open seats), in which those candidates with, say, >=10% of the vote are all elected to Congress, but where their votes within Congress are proportional to the percent of the vote in their district which elected them.
We’ve got computers now. Proportional voting power doesn’t take any time at all to calculate.
MikeP
Aug 8 2018 at 5:04pm
I have strongly supported the Electoral College in this forum before, mostly as (a) it discourages ballot box stuffing by state officials and (b) it forms a firewall against a nationwide recount.
But I did note in that same thread that “all of the real benefit of the Electoral College would be preserved if it were made more fair by dropping the two senators from the per-state elector counts.”
Would you find that change to be an adequate measure to remove the superior proportional power of farmland?
David S
Aug 8 2018 at 5:50pm
In this article Dr. Sumner describes the locally informed, generally uninformed interests of the hyperstacked urbanites in a handful of cities as having a better understanding of what is “good for the country” compared to the locally informed, generally uninformed interests of those diversely dispersed voters which supply all of the raw resources which those urban environments syphon up. Mark me unconvinced as well.
BW
Aug 8 2018 at 6:28pm
I disagree with Scott’s assertion that the burden of proof lies with supporters of the electoral college. I think there are two problems with Scott’s theory. The first is that Bryan Caplan’s Myth of the Rational Voter demonstrates that the “wisdom of the crowd” is an oxymoron, at least on the topic of politics. Anyone arguing that there is wisdom in a crowd has the burden of proof. Now this observation cuts both ways. As Denver argues above, if the median voter is ignorant, why wouldn’t the median electorate be ignorant. And indeed, this alone would leave us with a stalemate.
But that leads to the second problem with Scott’s theory. There are at least 3 ways that a national majority could overrule a regional majority: by implementing a policy that 1) harms a regional majority in the short term but benefits everyone long term; 2) harms regional majority A both long and short term, but benefits regional majority B both long and short term, where group B is larger than group A; or 3) harms a regional majority but has no effect outside that region. Scott mention some policies of type 1) that a one-man-one-vote system could more easily enact, like free trade and other forms of creative destruction. But it would also enable the creation of policies of type 3). An example of policies of type 3 would be the Feds telling California how to police it’s immigrant communities or the Feds telling Colorado to keep weed illegal or the Feds telling states how much to tax their citizens or which public benefits to provide. The federalism of the US Constitution is one of its chief accomplishments and the electoral college helps to preserve it. Anyone arguing that decentralization of power is not a bulwark of liberty has the burden of proof. See here.
Of course, Scott doesn’t argue this. He makes a valid point about the electoral college allowing regional majorities prevent policies of type 1). But I think the burden of proof is on him to show that the expected gains from policies of type 1) outweigh the expected losses from policies of type 2) and 3).
Lorenzo from Oz
Aug 8 2018 at 7:46pm
The “people not land” argument seems an odd one. It implies, for example, that small countries have no moral right to assert any independence against larger ones.
If one thinks of people are interchangeable units (which economics tends to do and utilitarianism definitely does), then it seems “obvious”. But if people are taken to come with interconnections that matter, because they are part of what it is to be human, then the argument is much weaker.
And if you think that arguments over voter registration are bitter at the moment, change to a single-national-electorate-for-President and see what happens.
B Cole
Aug 8 2018 at 8:36pm
I agree with this post.
I was happy to not see Hillary Clinton in the White House. She strikes me as a spooky character.
But Bush lost to Gore by a slim margin. Trump lost to Clinton by a noticeable margin.
How far are we willing to go with an electoral college system that undermines democracy? Suppose in the next election Trump loses by 5%, but wins in the electoral college.
I suppose one could posit that government has lost all credibility anyway. If so, the electoral college system is only icing on the cake.
Ken P
Aug 8 2018 at 10:17pm
I’m skeptical about the domestic costs of the China trade. The skill level of the median US employee was in the upper echelon of the world population in the past. Walling ourselves off from China would not have changed that except to reduce our competitive capability. I do agree that there are many more benefits than were probably expected. For the most part, I see it as a story of continuous creative destruction accompanied with migration o high skilled employees to cities and regulatory barriers to entry reducing entrepreneurism.
As for the electoral college, it seems that everyone assumes the winner of a given popular vote would have been the same if the rules of the game been that popular votes win. But the campaign strategies would have been totally different.
I’m guessing DT would have campaigned pretty hard in California. Hillary may have campaigned hard in Texas. Different platforms would have been created to slice and dice popularity. I would assume that delegates would be apportioned to mimic the final election or maybe just use popular vote so that we may have had different candidate(s) as well.
MikeW
Aug 10 2018 at 12:48pm
“As for the electoral college, it seems that everyone assumes the winner of a given popular vote would have been the same if the rules of the game been that popular votes win. But the campaign strategies would have been totally different.”
This is a very important point, and I believe is correct.
Robert EV
Aug 10 2018 at 1:10pm
And to effectively campaign in California or Texas Hillary or Trump would have likely had to make different campaign promises.
Incoming Presidents (Trump included) historically try to keep their campaign promises.
So I don’t see the problem. alt-Trump may very well have been a president the majority still supports.
Scott Sumner
Aug 9 2018 at 12:53am
Denver, You said:
“The notion that the median voter is in any way more knowledgeable and rational than the median electorate seems far fetched.”
I have no idea what that means.
John, Yes, I’d prefer a parliamentary system. Maybe proportional representation.
Mike, That change would help. I see recounts, corruption, etc., being more of a problem with the Electoral College.
BW, I don’t think Bryan disproved the wisdom of crowds. I’m also a big fan of decentralization.
Lorenzo, You said:
“The “people not land” argument seems an odd one. It implies, for example, that small countries have no moral right to assert any independence against larger ones.”
Not at all. I think decentralization makes sense. But it should be done non-violently, as in Czechoslovakia.
Ken, You said:
“As for the electoral college, it seems that everyone assumes the winner of a given popular vote would have been the same if the rules of the game been that popular votes win.”
Not really, most smart people understand that issue. In this case (2016) the margin was so large it probably wouldn’t have overturned the popular margin, but in 2000 it might have.
Denver
Aug 9 2018 at 11:56am
Scott,
Aquiring the information that democratic theory rests upon (who your candidate is, how they vote, what the basic facts are, etc) is not costless. It requires time and resources to aquire this information. And if my vote has (effectively) zero chance at changing the outcome of the election, then I have little reason to bear this cost, and thus have an incentive to vote poorly. Since democracies are ruled (roughly speaking) by the median vote, we ought to expect the median vote to be ignorant.
Furthermore, as Brian Caplan argues in “Myth of the Rational Voter” (and Jason Brennan sums up nicely in “Against Democracy”), the situation is even worse than this. Since it’s not just that there is a cost to aquiring information, there is a cost to thinking clearly about the issues. Being rational requires keeping your emotions in check, being aware of your cognitive biases, constantly second guessing yourself, etc. So it’s not just that I have an incentive to vote ignorantly, I have an incentive to vote irrationally, as the benefits I get from a vote are (effectively) zero, but the cost of voting rationally are non-zero.
Which, if you’ve ever talked to a normal person, makes total sense, since most politically inclined people treat politics like a sports game, not as a set of serious moral and economic decisions bring imposed onto total strangers.
Lastly, I’ve seen several different methods of calculation, but I don’t think it’s uncontroversial to say that a vote becomes valueless very quickly as the voting population scales. So even if my vote has slightly more weight voting in a rural county, slightly more than nothing is still pretty close to nothing. So I’m not convinced that an electoral college has any different incentives than what I’ve described. And if it did, it’s not at all clear those incentives are worse.
That’s what I meant by that statement.
John Alcorn
Aug 10 2018 at 3:53pm
@ Scott Sumner,
Re: “I don’t think Bryan [Caplan] disproved the wisdom of crowds.”
See Bryan Caplan,“Reply to My Critics,” Critical Review 20:3 (2008) 377-413.
Alan Goldhammer
Aug 9 2018 at 7:38am
The 2000 election was weird in that the outcome was dependent on one state, Florida. The presence of a 3rd party candidate, Ralph Nader, and bad paper ballot design in south Florida (remember all the discussion of ‘hanging chads?’), coupled with a party line vote from the Supreme Court decided the election. What was surprising at the time was that this was accepted without the level of rancor that followed the 2016 election (and one might argue still exists).
I’m in agreement with Scott’s post. The Electoral College along with some other features in the Constitution were designed in a very different time. The EC has outlived its usefulness but short of a Constitutional amendment or state legislation requiring electors to honor the national vote total it will continue to live on.
pyroseed13
Aug 9 2018 at 9:53am
“The default option should be majority vote, which best represents the ‘wisdom of crowds”
If the default option was the “majority vote,” then neither Trump nor Clinton would have won since they did not win a majority of the vote. Do you mean plurality? I think a case could be made having a system where you need at least 50% of the vote to be declared the win, otherwise it goes to the electoral college.
Jeff
Aug 9 2018 at 9:59am
Trump won the overall vote total if you exclude California, but of course he lost California by a lot. He expected that, so he didn’t campaign there, or in Illinois or New York. Similarly, Clinton didn’t waste much time and money in Texas. This is rational behavior for the candidates given our Electoral College system.
If the contest were decided by national vote totals, you can bet that both candidates would have campaigned hardest in the most populous states. We can’t say with much confidence how the national vote totals would have come out if that had been the case. Unless, of course, you think that campaigns and campaign strategy doesn’t matter to the outcome at all, which seems unlikely.
John Alcorn
Aug 9 2018 at 10:43am
The U.S.A. is a federation of States.
Various limits to majority rule are crucial components of constitutions. See, for example, Jon Elster, “Tyranny and Brutality of the Majority,” in Stéphanie Novak & Jon Elster, eds., Majority Decisions: Principles and Practices (Cambridge U. Press, 2014), chapter 8 (159-176).
The social sciences have not established that federations are inferior to centralized polities. Moreover, as Prof. Sumner acknowledges, the social sciences have not established that the Electoral College is counter-productive as a limit to majority rule.
I take no position on whether the Electoral College should be eliminated. However, Prof. Sumner’s case is flawed.
No, the burden of proof is on those who would amend the Constitution. There are procedures for amending the Constitution.
And no, majority vote doesn’t best represent the ‘wisdom of crowds.’ See, for example, Bryan Caplan, The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies; and Eric Posner & Glen Weyl, Radical Markets, chapter 2: “Radical Democracy.”
A rational voter in almost any large election knows that her chance of deciding the election’s outcome is negligible. Rational individuals vote to express themselves, or to conform to social norms, or to fulfill a duty — not because they believe their vote will “matter” (i.e., be instrumental or decisive).
Critics of the Electoral College often commit a ceteris paribus (all-else-equal) fallacy. They believe that they can change one variable without affecting the others. They argue, for example, that Hilary Clinton would have prevailed over Donald Trump. However, had the Electoral College been eliminated before the 2016 Presidential election, everything about the election would have been different. The candidates might have been different. The campaign strategies surely would have been different. Counter-factual historical speculation gets complicated (and arbitrary) fast!
Finally, consistency would require Prof. Sumner to advocate abolition of equal representation of States in the Senate (two Senators for each State, regardless of population).
Compare Jason Brennan’s case in favor of the Electoral College: “The Electoral College is anti-democratic — and that’s a good thing”.
Shawn Meehan
Aug 9 2018 at 10:54am
I’d suggest some folks read the 12th Amendment and the history of the Electoral College. The Founders, wisely, never intended for The People to vote for president as they are largely uninformed and governed by their emotions.
This article made me shake my head. It seems as if someone took a belief they already held on one topic and tried to back it into another, unrelated topic, ignoring the main reasons the Electoral College exists.
Having been selected as an alternate elector for the 2016 election, I enjoyed studying the history of the issue and the current, unconstitutional laws that disturb the intended process. I’m glad that litigation is ongoing to address some of these issues.
“However, even if such promises of candidates for the electoral college are legally unenforceable because violative of an assumed constitutional freedom of the elector under the Constitution, Art. II, § 1, to vote as he may choose [emphasis added] in the electoral college, it would not follow that the requirement of a pledge in the primary is unconstitutional.” — U.S. Supreme Court, Ray v. Blair, 1952
LK Beland
Aug 9 2018 at 11:01am
Also, the electoral college adds to the Senate, which very clearly tilts towards representing land, and to the House of Representative, that does so to some extent because of voter concentration and gerrymandering.
It’s pretty amazing that the GOP might keep control of the executive, legislative (x2) and judiciary branches of government while getting much fewer votes than the Dems in 2016 and 2018. The system was set-up this way to ensure that the majority wouldn’t oppress the minority. There is some irony in the fact that it’s now helping the minority rule over the majority.
David S
Aug 11 2018 at 10:02pm
“The system was set-up this way to ensure that the majority wouldn’t oppress the minority. There is some irony in the fact that it’s now helping the minority rule over the majority.”
As I see it, this is the system working as expected. Many people felt that the “majority” (liberals) was trampling the rights of the “minority” (conservatives) during the Obama years. This led to a massive backlash, electing Trump.
What is interesting is that Trump’s policies seem to be working. It appears that threatening and implementing tariffs (“dumb Trump policies”) is actually less damaging than the excessive taxes and regulations (“dumb Obama policies”). I did not actually expect that. I expected the tax and regulation rollback to improve the economy, but not more than a trade war would harm it.
I believe there are probably some good papers to be written in that!
Hazel Meade
Aug 9 2018 at 2:55pm
We don’t need to eliminate the electoral college. We just need to ban winner-take-all allocation of seats. Most of the perverse incentives of the electoral college system are due to winner-take-all allocation. People argue that the electoral college enhances the power of small states, but that is not actually the case – the winner-take-all system enhances the power of voters in swing-states whether they are large or small. Big swing states like Florida are always going to be more powerful than small swing states. In fact, it’s still better to be a big state because the deciding vote still swings many more EC votes in a big state than in a small state – a collection of smaller states with separate winner-take-all totals is closer to proportional representation.
Perversely winner-take-all allocates all sets to the winner even with only a plurality of the votes, which creates the “spoiler” effect – such as with the theory tht Ralph Nadir swung the 2000 election by taking votes away from Al Gore. Neither Bush nor Gore actually received 50% of the vote. Merely adding instant runoffs would prevent that from happening Gore as their second choice.
There are a lot of things that could be done with the EC without completely dismantling it if we could get rid of the winner-take-all system.
Alan Goldhammer
Aug 9 2018 at 4:43pm
@Hazel Meade – certainly states can decide on their own to apportion electoral votes in the manner you mention. Big swing states are not likely to do this as it is not in their economic interest. Consider all the funds that pour into such states for media buys, travel by candidates and their entourages, etc. We will continue to have some small outliers such as Maine and Nebraska that do this but don’t hold your breath waiting for Florida. The EC was designed as a reaction against the public as laid out in Federalist #10 by Madison.
Hazel Meade
Aug 10 2018 at 12:11pm
That’s why it will take federal law, if not a constitutional amendment, to do away with winner-take-all allocation. States are not going to do it on their own, because of all the incentives you mention. It’s like a prisoner’s dilemma – every state has an incentive to defect and switch to winner-take-all to enhance it’s power. And with 50 states playing it’s going to be really really hard to get them all to agree not to do that. So yeah, it won’t happen by lobbying at the state level. I think federal legislation would suffice, although I’m not an expert on constitutional law. But I’m not aware of anything in the constitution that forbids the federal government from regulating how the states are allowed to apportion EC votes.
Eliminating the EC entirely would require a constitutional amendment, which is a lot harder.
Kurt Schuler
Aug 9 2018 at 10:30pm
Scott, it appears that you have not fully thought through the issues about representation. On the one hand you are critical of the Electoral College for giving some voters more weight than others, but on the other hand you prefer a parliamentary system, which is far less democratic in the sense that the prime minister never appears on the ballot. Even in his own constituency, voters simply elect a member of parliament who may or may not become prime minister. The prime minister is elected by at most a few hundred voters — his fellow members of parliament — rather than by millions. Moreover, in a multiparty parliamentary system, sometimes the prime minister is not even from the party that got the largest share of the popular vote.
Ambrose Bierce defined a conservative as a statesman who is enamored of existing evils, as opposed to a liberal, who wishes to replace them with new evils. Before you go full liberal on this, look at list of other countries with presidential systems, none of which has an Electoral College-type body, and consider whether you really want the United States to be more like Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, the Philippines, or Zimbabwe.
Robert EV
Aug 10 2018 at 1:30pm
Mitch McConnell, Merrick Garland, nuff said.
There are parliamentary systems with an elected president who functions as head of the executive.
Jeff
Aug 10 2018 at 11:57am
Why does anyone care how democratic the system is? James Madison and the other Founders were very smart guys, and they clearly didn’t think that the degree of democracy was the most important attribute for a system of government. Rather, they explictly designed and argued for a republican form of government in which the people ruled indirectly, through an elected House, an appointed Senate (appointed by the individual State legislatures), and an indirectly elected President, along with a Judiciary branch featuring judges with lifetime appointments. Except for the elected House, none of this is particularly democratic. It wasn’t meant to be. In Federalist Paper #10, Madison explains why. Part of his argument is that individual voters are not likely to be very well informed about most issues or very wise in general. Bryan Caplan has a lot to say about that as well.
What’s needed is an incentive for government to perform well. Throwing the bums out is one way, and that doesn’t take more democracy than the Founders’ design. But there are other ways. The freedom of US residents to relocate from one state to another provides a check on how badly a state can run itself, and I imagine that if we allowed unlimited immigration, the Mexican government would start reforming itself pretty quickly before it lost most of it’s population.
Robert EV
Aug 10 2018 at 1:24pm
In Madison’s time no one was likely to be well informed on national issues. The average hoi polloi today has access to far better information, far faster, than even the statesmen of the 18th century.
That isn’t to say that they’re going to use it well. But the same can be said about the statesmen of today.
Madison’s argument is dead in the 21st century. Heck, it was dead by the mid 20th.
Unless you want a government of elites who all push their own parochial interests above the interests of the citizenry.
I, for one, am not in favor of the parochial interests of the elites. I have my own parochial interests that most of them do not share.
Jeff
Aug 10 2018 at 4:29pm
It’s not just a matter of information. Sure, anyone can use Google. But how many people actually know, for example, how to conduct monetary policy well? I think Scott, myself, and at most a couple of hundred other economists do. Most economists don’t, and I can’t think of any non-economists who’ve devoted enough time and effort to really master it.
You can say the same about many policy areas. Part of the advantage of representative government is that Representatives are able to devote a lot more time to mastering politics than you or I can, and even then no one expects any particular Congressman or Senator to be an expert on everything. They serve on a few committees, and over time acquire expertise in the areas their committees deal with. The committee staffs have even more expertise. How do you expect to get informed and intelligent policy out of a pure democracy? Especially when you factor in the virtue-signalling and other behaviors Bryan Caplan writes about in <i>The Myth of the Rational Voter</i>?
The idea that we can somehow run things without an “elite” group of people who actually know what they’re doing is nuts. It was nuts in 1783, and it’s still nuts today.
Robert EV
Aug 10 2018 at 7:00pm
Please don’t move the goalposts. For the most part in this discussion people are arguing against democratic election of the politicians in government. Your major point in the post I responded to is in line with this: “Except for the elected House, none of this is particularly democratic.”
I think we should try more democratic, majority rules elections. Eliminating the appointing of Senators was good. Eliminating the electoral college will also be good. And because we do want minority representation, we could have a system which allows this without minority rule, whether a more federalist presidential-parliamentary system, or an enlarged pool of representatives and senators (such as 3 senators for every state), or something along those lines with the people directly electing their politicians.
Possibly even periodic electoral review of judges or even direct election of judges (shouldn’t the people have a direct say in those who judge them?), though I’m more leery of this too.
But to address your broader point: When done thoroughly (e.g. like the Landsgemeinde of the two direct-democratic Swiss cantons) I am of the impression that less informed people will tend to listen to the arguments of more informed people, and vote based on that received information (or be among the 50+% who opt out of voting entirely). I sure as heck do.
Jeff
Aug 10 2018 at 7:53pm
I think the direct election of Senators was a very bad idea. Prior to the 17th Amendment, Senators protected the prerogatives of the individual States against the Federal interests, one of the many checks and balances the Founders built in to protect against the kind of overweening federal government we have today. If Senators were still protecting the interests of their State governments, I don’t think we’d even have an EPA or an Education Department. The FBI might exist, but it would be a much smaller agency focused on helping state and local police with cross-state investigations and enforcement. We probably never would have had federal drug prohibition. Nearly all of the burdensome regulations complained of by businesses would never have happened.
The great thing about a federal system is that States have to compete with each other for residents. If California passes some really bad laws, people will move to other states. When power over, say, education policy passes from the state to the federal level, that incentive to get it right lest your citizens abandon you just isn’t there.
Robert EV
Aug 10 2018 at 9:20pm
? So we disagree on preferred policy.
Typical people rarely move because of laws, they move for survival, relational, or social reasons. Always have, always will. Thus all governments over those people need to be responsive to the will of the people.
If this means stopping the use of DDT or asbestos across the entire nation then so be it.
David S
Aug 11 2018 at 10:10pm
“Typical people rarely move because of laws, they move for survival, relational, or social reasons. ”
I’m not too sure about that. I know a lot of people that would like to move to California for work/weather reasons, but can’t stomach the crazy politics. I think that is a lot of why California is getting so polarized; once you get a certain percentage of people who are convinced that anyone that disagrees with them is evil, people that disagree with them will stop moving in.
Mark Bahner
Aug 10 2018 at 9:10pm
How could cows do worse than Trump vs Clinton? Give cows a chance!
Mark Bahner (President, MOOVE Forward)
CEC
Aug 11 2018 at 10:58am
The Electoral College could be made more representative if the “winner” in each Representative’s region got the associated electoral vote, with the candidate who wins for the state in total also getting the two electoral votes associated with the Senate seats. While this would provide an electoral college that would better represent the majority of voters’ views and give more skin-in-the-game for politicians to engage voters outside of swing states, getting it in place requires approval by each state individually, which gives the leading party in each state strong reason to fight the change. An interesting argument for game theory classes, but unlikely to ever be approved. Given that, I wonder how we can change the electoral college to be more effective.
Michael Byrnes
Aug 13 2018 at 7:10am
“Majority rule” is preferable to “minority rule”, which is the direction we are trending in as a result of the electoral college and other systems that favor less populous regions over more populous.
There is much in our way of life that should never be subject to majority rule, but the proper way to address concerns about “the tyrrany of the majority” is through Constitutional rights and other legal protections – not by subjecting the many to the tryanny of the few.
I think many people who rightly oppose pure majoritarian rule go off track in supporting measures that move us, not towards liberty but rather tyranny of the majority.
There’s no good reason why some individuals should have greater say over who becomes the next President than others.
IronSig
Aug 13 2018 at 8:41pm
Since I’m from one of those cow-states, I’ve always thought that the Electorial College existed to provide 1) cause to meditate on federalism, decentralization and skepticism toward democracy and 2) a Machiavellian ploy to entice some loyalty toward the state process from the interior folk and inhibit successionist feeling. The second might be the “good” (cynical) reason that Michael Byrnes is looking for; without it, how quickly might Balkanization set i?
MikeP has an interesting idea. I’m also interested in reinstating state-appointment of Senators.
I’ve decided to not vote for President on any ballot unless I’ve made up my mind on votes for the local judge and county government.
Maximum Liberty
Aug 15 2018 at 4:36pm
The entire argument here ignores the importance of federalism. The composition of both the senate and the electoral college are supposed to help protect federalism and prevent the states from becoming mere appendages of the federal government. The direct election of senators undermines that considerably, of course.
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