Except for a few heroes or fanatics, nobody wants to be the last one to fight when his comrades (or perhaps foreign allies) have stopped shooting, abandoned their position, or surrendered. And every soldier knows that every one of his comrades is having the same thought about where his self-interest lies. So when they think the wind is about to turn, it has already turned and the whole battalion or army lays down its arms. This explains Afghanistan last week.
The prospect of 72 virgins in the afterlife counts of course, but more mundane incentives too.
Game theory has formalized this sort of problem as the famous Prisoners Dilemma. It may be in the common interest of all to continue fighting, but if every individual thinks it is in his own interest to stop, he will. It’s standard economics. In his book Bureaucracy (Liberty Fund, 2005), Gordon Tullock analyzed individual incentives in the military (which is a sort of bureaucracy) and gave numerous examples of their importance.
READER COMMENTS
Craig
Aug 16 2021 at 1:28pm
“The perspective of 72 virgins in the afterlife counts of course, but more mundane incentives too.”[I think the word you want there is prospect, ie the prospect of 72 virigns] — but still how about your mother, your girlfriend, your daughter, your family?
“This explains Afghanistan last week.”
I think that can explain the cowardly effort of the Afghan Army (yes, they’re cowards). But how do you explain the Taliban’s continued resistance, or the resistance of the Northern Alliance before them clinging to areas of Afghanistan, or to the mujhadin fighting the Red Army?
So for sure one might say that in the past week it may have made sense for members of the Afghan Army to give up the ship, but there is still a lack of effort before then which led to the ship going down. That lack of effort is cowardice.
Time to wash our hands of Afghanistan.
Pierre Lemieux
Aug 16 2021 at 4:56pm
Craig: You read in my linguistic mind like in an open book. This Gallicism crossed my mind as I was driving my pickup earlier today and I made the correction on my smartphone before seeing your comment.
You ask:
Good question. My parenthesis on the 72 virgins was meant to explain that. I could have added that they are barbarians who see little opportunities besides war, so their opportunity cost of warring is relatively low and the spoils of war relatively high.
Alan Goldhammer
Aug 16 2021 at 3:01pm
Best explanation of the 72 virgins was by Steve Martin in The New Yorker.
Afghanistan has been in play ever since the ‘great game’ of the mid-19th century. No outside nation ever succeeded and strategically it is of little interest. Maybe China will have better luck.
Pierre Lemieux
Aug 16 2021 at 5:08pm
Alan: Your link is funny; I recommend it! Virgin 34 is a fine psychologist. Virgins 50, 58, 59, and 64 are using the same trick. On your second point, we could perhaps wish that to the Chinese army, although it would not be paradise for the poor Afghan civilians.
David Seltzer
Aug 17 2021 at 11:28am
Alan, Spot on. Afghanistan is the grave of empires. A tragic example of the broken window fallacy.
BC
Aug 16 2021 at 4:24pm
Not just incentives, but credibility. The situation reminds me of a bank run. I could imagine that, if the FDIC were suddenly to announce that it would cease immediately insuring deposits at a particular bank, then the announcement itself might precipitate a run on that bank. No one wants to be the last depositor any more than the last soldier fighting. (Of course, some commentators might claim the bank run itself would validate the FDIC’s decision to pull out, even if the prior 20 years had been run free.)
It’s been striking to see how much difference just 3000 US troops had been making in keeping the Taliban at bay. Of course, we now apparently need 7000 troops just to protect the airport. That reminds me of central bank credibility vs. size of balance sheets. When a central bank loses credibility, it often must enlarge its balance sheet even more than would have been necessary had it retained credibility. Scott Sumner discussed this effect several years ago with respect to the Swiss National Bank and pegging the Swiss franc to the Euro.
Lots of lessons here about credibility and deterrence.
Pierre Lemieux
Aug 16 2021 at 5:19pm
BC: Good points.
Weir
Aug 17 2021 at 2:08am
I look at what Biden said in July and the idea that the president knowingly abandoned Afghanistan or that he intentionally surrendered to the Taliban is not what I see.
“The likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.”
If you believe the Taliban is about to overrun everything and own the whole country, then you’re not going to go on record with statements like this.
“There’s going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of a embassy of the United States from Afghanistan.”
Nobody talks like this if they know which way the wind is blowing. So Biden must have believed what he was saying. His supporters can claim that the president was lying but I think he believed what he said.
robc
Aug 17 2021 at 10:54am
I think this is a good example of Hanlon’s razor.
Generally, when it comes to government actions, I presume the opposite and assume malice over incompetence.
But in this specific case, Hanlon got it right.
Pierre Lemieux
Aug 17 2021 at 12:33pm
Biden also said on Monday, “The truth is this did unfold more quickly than we had anticipated.” So he did anticipate it?
David Seltzer
Aug 17 2021 at 1:16pm
Pierre: If he did, he failed to understand Dornbusch’s law. To wit. The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.
Maniel
Aug 17 2021 at 10:49am
Bonjour Pierre,
“The prospect of 72 virgins in the afterlife” is a derisive dismissal of the faith, and more importantly, of the patience of the Taliban. As such, it may bring a smile to our Western lips, but it has just been shown to indicate a misplaced sense of superiority. It caused my side to seriously underestimate the staying power of our adversary. Their faith in Allah and their devotion to the conveyors of His law have been shown to be resilient. Our misreading of that faith, the true source of their power, led us to believe that we could inoculate their countrymen with democracy vaccines, backed – temporarily at least – with Humvee’s and air power, and that those vaccines would have long shelf lives. All the while, the Taliban were taking what they could and waiting for us to say when we would leave so that they could take the rest. Belief is power.
Pierre Lemieux
Aug 17 2021 at 12:50pm
Maniel: Please note that you don’t have to persuade an economist that preferences are subjective. But you won’t persuade an Enlightenment man that the 72 virgin story is not ludicrous. Laughing is not incompatible with tolerance (“castigat ridendo mores“). I think there are many reasons to believe that Western civilization is superior because of rational inquiry and individual liberty; and it started in Athens in the 5th century BC (modestly in the case of liberty). You may like to have a look at Joel Mokyr’s A Culture of Growth. This being said, others may believe the contrary if they don’t mess with me.
Maniel
Aug 17 2021 at 2:49pm
Pierre, respectueusement, vous apportez de l’eau à mon moulin. Whether or not the Taliban soldier on the ground actually believes it, my seizing on that “ludicrous” promise only reinforces my belief that he is not be taken seriously. As a civilized, Westerner, steeped in the virtues of free markets and representative government, I need not account for the fact that the subject is not whose society is superior, but rather who will survive the war, a war fought in his backyard (by the way).
Pierre Lemieux
Aug 17 2021 at 9:48pm
Maniel: D’accord, si je comprends bien votre dernière phrase. You’re right. Just believing that because the Western civilization is superior is not sufficient to win a war. Incentives must be considered.
Maniel
Aug 18 2021 at 12:03pm
Merci, Pierre, Vous m’avez bien compris. The outcomes of wars have seldom been foretold in the echo chambers of Washington DC.
Jose Pablo
Aug 18 2021 at 9:23pm
Not more ludicrous that the idea of being seated close to God listening to harp music for all the eternity.
In the very unlikely case that my opinion was taken into account, I would definitely support the 72 virgin “ludicrous story” over the “eternal harp music” version, after all “ludicrous” can be forgiven, but, for God’s sake, boredom!
David Seltzer
Aug 17 2021 at 1:06pm
“Belief is power.” Strong point Maniel. I served in Southeast Asia USN, Operation Market Time, 1962 to 1964. The ARVN and US forces killed 1.1 million NVA and VC at a cost of three hundred thousand allied force’s lives. A kill ratio of 3.7 to 1 and we couldn’t defeat them. The battle at Ia Drang convinced Ho Chi Minh he could win. Charlie never took weekends off, slept in water up to his waist and ate things that would make a goat vomit. Charlie’s belief in Uncle Ho far exceeded our ability to vanquish him.
Monte
Aug 18 2021 at 3:01am
His supporters can claim that the president was lying but I think he believed what he said.
If you learn to listen for clues as to how President Biden feels instead of what he says, you’ll be able to understand him much better.
Weir
Aug 19 2021 at 2:58am
That’s true. When he gets irritated he snaps back. If he feels embarrassed he’ll say something that a more thoughtful operator would think twice about putting on the record. He’ll say that Facebook is killing people but Antifa’s just an idea. He’ll come out with the suggestion of using the Logan Act against the incoming foreign policy head honcho.
He cuts off a question from Stephanopoulos asking about Afghans falling from a plane, “That was four days ago, five days ago!”
Calculating is the last way to describe the president’s outbursts. A reporter asks him if there are people in the Democratic Party who believe in defunding the police and he says “Are there people in the Republican Party who think we’re sucking the blood out of kids?”
So when something goes disastrously wrong that’s when the emotions really go into overdrive. At the best of times he’s impulsive instead of thoughtful.
Winslow P. Kelpfroth
Aug 21 2021 at 12:02pm
Your comments about the ‘cowardice’ of the Afghan army units reminded me of a story from one of the Colonels in my reserve unit several years ago. At the time COL Ellis had been an enlisted corpsman in the Navy, having made something like nine contested island landings. On Savi (I’ll get the names of the islands wrong, of course) it looked like the marines would be pushed back into the sea and Ellis was considering if he could swim the mile or so to Sabu when the Japanese suddenly withdrew. Turned out that an off target artillery round had destroyed the Japanese water supply and they couldn’t sustain their combat effort further.
We trained the Afghan forces to our standard, including close air support and other combat support elements such as supply for food, fuel and bullets. When you see your support suddenly evaporate, abandoning the largest bases in the middle of the night, it only makes sense to negotiate safe passage or an armistice with your enemy. That’s not cowardice.
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