Adam Smith once said, “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation.” People with the good fortune of living in a highly successful country often have little sense of how much worse things can get. Perhaps you’ve met Americans who think Mexico is a “poor country”. That would certainly be news to residents of Haiti!
This problem came to mind recently when I saw a news feed from the South China Morning Post (SCMP):
The third article is exactly the sort of propaganda you’d expect from a Mainland Chinese news source. The first two are the sort of news stories you’d expect from an independent minded Hong Kong newspaper.
In recent years, the Chinese government has cracked down on dissent in Hong Kong, and the city has lost much of its independence. Hong Kong is a much more repressive place than even 5 years ago.
At the same time, when I read the SCMP I am reminded of Adam Smith’s famous maxim. Despite a rather draconian crackdown by the Chinese government, Hong Kong seems to remain much freer than the mainland. Recent trends at the SCMP are disappointing, but the mainland papers are far worse—just pure propaganda. It will be interesting to see if the SCMP continues to deteriorate over the next few years, or levels off somewhere intermediate between the China Daily and a US or European media outlet. (Even if you hate the mainstream media because of bias, they are willing to criticize their own government.)
The following statements are all true:
1. Today, Mainland China is vastly freer than when Mao ruled China.
2. Today, Hong Kong is vastly freer than Mainland China.
3. The Hong Kong of 2018 was vastly freer than the Hong Kong of today.
4. The Hong Kong of 2018 wasn’t even a democracy.
Don’t think that things can’t get any worse. In 1918, I imagine lots of people thinking that the “Great War” was as bad as war could get.
A common mistake is to fixate on one fact about a country, which a person might read in the media, and draw sweeping conclusions from that fact.
“Did you hear about the Covid policy in Australia? It’s become a police state.”
That Covid policy you read about was probably bad, but I doubt that, by itself, it would have caused an otherwise free country to become a police state. There’s a great deal of ruin in a nation.
A second mistake is to pay more attention to abuses elsewhere than at home. I would never deny that the Russian government’s imprisonment of Brittney Griner on drug charges is an outrageous violation of her human rights. Nor would I deny that her punishment is more severe than she would have received in the US. Even so, it’s a bit odd to see so much attention paid to this one case at a time when nearly 400,000 Americans are in prison for drug charges, often for doing things that would be completely legal in at least a dozen American states. That strikes me as pretty grotesque, but our news media doesn’t seem to agree, as they focus all their attention on Griner.
This is why we should never give up. A libertarian utopia may be out of reach, but even preventing things from getting worse would be an achievement worth celebrating, with vast consequences for human welfare.
READER COMMENTS
zeke5123
Aug 31 2022 at 2:04pm
For what it is worth, I don’t see really any contradiction between #3 and #4. Some place can have a lot of freedom and not be a democracy, or have little freedom and be a democracy.
Democracy is but one check that generally leads to more freedom, but is not necessary or sufficient cause of freedom.
Also, in some ways the Great War may be the worst war (just the brutal, grinding trench warfare was terrible). Another contender is the US Civil War. WWII’s scope was larger, but no sure “pound-for-pound” it was worse.
With that said, neither points above change your post’s main thesis.
Scott Sumner
Aug 31 2022 at 5:01pm
I agree about democracy.
“WWII’s scope was larger, but not sure “pound-for-pound” it was worse.”
I don’t think the “pound-for-pound” criterion is particularly useful. Compare a particularly horrible battle that only involved 50 soldiers with WWII, which involved more than 50 million. Total suffering is very important. But then I’m a utilitarian.
Nicholas Decker
Aug 31 2022 at 6:10pm
I would tend to agree with Zeke, in that, if you were an infantry soldier, then the Great War was worse. WWII affected far more people, especially civilians, but if I were an infantry soldier I’d pick WWII. I don’t think including the ACW is appropriate, as it’s not close to either.
zeke5123
Aug 31 2022 at 10:30pm
I think there is both a size element and brutality. Yes a 50 man battle could be barbaric but it’s only 50 men. Likewise, there could be large wars fought with weapons that might kill targets with minimal pain.
The Great War was both large and brutal. But I recognize YMMV (both WWI and II were of course terrible).
Scott Sumner
Aug 31 2022 at 11:02pm
There was far more suffering in WWII than in WWI, and it’s not even close. Don’t focus too much on trench warfare in Western Europe. Yes, WWI was worse in Western Europe, but overall WWII was far worse, with many times more deaths.
MarkW
Sep 1 2022 at 4:33pm
WWII was far worse, with many times more deaths.
Yes — and especially civilian deaths.
G. Leibniz
Aug 31 2022 at 2:38pm
Reminded of this Kahneman (?) quote: A person’s unwillingness to deduce the particular from the general is matched only by their willingness to infer the general from the particular.
Scott Sumner
Aug 31 2022 at 4:52pm
Great quotation.
Jim Glass
Aug 31 2022 at 8:53pm
By coincidence, the last web page I looked at before this one was…
Scott Sumner
Aug 31 2022 at 11:05pm
I disagree with Klein on that. Democracies tend to be much more liberal than non-democracies, and I think the Industrial Revolution would have occurred either way.
Michael Sandifer
Aug 31 2022 at 8:54pm
Yes, and this is the best argument for voting Democrat.
Matthias
Aug 31 2022 at 10:47pm
Huh? This sounds more like an argument for voting with your feet to me.
Michael Sandifer
Sep 2 2022 at 10:15am
Well, that’s an option too, but if you really love your country, you may stay and choose to fight. The Democrats are the only alternative.
Matthias
Aug 31 2022 at 10:48pm
Scott, I also noticed how much the SCMP has gone down recently. I wonder whether that was already happening anyway, or whether the recent change in ownership and management made the difference?
Scott Sumner
Aug 31 2022 at 11:06pm
I was actually surprised it’s not even worse. I feared it would become like a Mainland Chinese newspaper. (Maybe it still will.)
I haven’t followed the ownership issue.
BC
Sep 1 2022 at 5:31am
“[Griner’s] punishment is more severe than she would have received in the US.”
My understanding is that it’s also more than she would have received in Russia, at least if she was sentenced based on her crime and similar Russian cases. The case has received so much attention relative to other drug cases because it’s not a drug case. The Russians took her hostage, er detained her, to gain geopolitical leverage. That’s why the parties are seeking a political resolution, most likely a prisoner swap.
Bill
Sep 9 2022 at 4:47pm
No doubt this is convenient for Russia, but are we sure Griner is not guilty? If Russia was framing her, would they have put some tiny amount of cannabis in a vape cartridge or just shoved a bag of hashish into her luggage or something? I don’t see why they would be particularly clever about it (if they even are capable enough to do so) since everyone thinks it is a setup anyway.
David S
Sep 1 2022 at 2:38pm
Nassim Taleb frequently points out that he criticizes institutions in free societies because he knows that it’s the only way to improve things. Scott does the same to the Fed. Free societies can appear dysfunctional but are actually more robust that authoritarian regimes because of the this constant feedback.
Gorbachev learned this—maybe too late.
Jose Pablo
Sep 1 2022 at 8:16pm
To be “dysfunctional” “free societies” get a remarkably good standard of living.
Don’t trust “appearances” or you could end up believing that debt forgiveness is good for college students.
Comments are closed.