In their recent book, We’ve Got You Covered, two health economists make their case for ditching the current system of health insurance in favor of a government-financed, zero-premium insurance for basic coverage. They would allow people to buy supplementary insurance to expand their coverage. The two economists, Stanford’s Liran Einav and MIT’s Amy Finkelstein, are well-known contributors to the literature on health insurance.
With their breezy and humorous writing style, Einav and Finkelstein make what seems at first like a compelling case. They may sway many readers, especially those who don’t know the literature on health economics. But a careful look at their case for ditching our current health insurance and starting over with a centrally planned system uncovers serious omissions and some tensions between their own views. Two omissions are: any mention at all of health savings accounts, and any mention, with a one-sentence exception, of possible reforms of the supply side that would increase supply and reduce the price of health care. One major tension is on their view of the importance of co-payments and deductibles; moreover, they seem to misunderstand the way to measure the impact of co-payments.
These are the opening two paragraphs of David R. Henderson, “A Flawed Case for Centrally Planned Health Insurance,” Defining Ideas, August 24, 2023.
Another excerpt:
You might be surprised to learn that the authors’ fundamental argument for a government-financed basic coverage for all is not that in our current system some people go uninsured. They write, “One in ten Americans lack formal health insurance coverage. But they are not uninsured.” How can that be? People without health insurance, they note, “receive a substantial amount of medical care and don’t pay for most of it.” They buttress their claim with strong evidence taken from the Oregon health insurance experiment, which Finkelstein was deeply involved in studying. In 2008, the Oregon government, constrained by its revenue, had decided to run a lottery to choose who would be added to Medicaid rolls and who would not. This is the kind of experiment that causes economists to rub their hands in glee. The reason: we get a large random sample of people who get the coverage and people who don’t, and we can track both their use of the medical system and their health.
Read the whole thing.
READER COMMENTS
Thomas Hutcheson
Aug 25 2023 at 10:06am
What’s an alternative way of ditching subsidized employer-purchased health insurance? (Why do we never hear how the current system is in effect a minimum wage for low-income workers with concomitant employment effects?) Finkelstein plus copays and supply side reforms? Universal ACA?
robc
Aug 25 2023 at 10:41am
The easiest way to ditch it is to make it not tax deductible to the employer.
vince
Aug 25 2023 at 2:36pm
Why should employers be in the health insurance business anyway? It further bloats HR departments. Employers don’t pay your car insurance.
Jon Murphy
Aug 25 2023 at 2:52pm
Whether or not they should is a different story, but the reason they are is because of wage controls following World War 2. Since firms could no longer compete on wages to lure workers, they began offering non-monetary compensation like health insurance.
robc
Aug 25 2023 at 4:19pm
And really my solution is wrong. It should be deductible to the employer just like any other form of compensation.
But the employer paid premiums should be a taxable benefit to the employee.
Lots more people would buy their own insurance and waive the employment coverage if that was the case.
Add in the ability to pay for premiums tax-free from an HSA account and it totally shifts.
vince
Aug 25 2023 at 5:03pm
robc is right. The compensation should be fully taxable. That loophole is probably a big factor perpetuating the scheme. So what you get are families where at least one spouse works as an employee simply to get subsidized health insurance.
Dylan
Aug 25 2023 at 5:55pm
@Robc
Why would this be the case? Isn’t at least part of the reason that getting insurance through the employer is beneficial is because of the large pool of workers to spread risk across? When I worked at a small company, the cost to the company of insuring a few of us was a lot more than it was at a large corporation. I’d assume, absent some kind of enforced government mandate to buy health insurance, that the same thing would happen at the individual level? So, it would probably still make sense to get your insurance via your employer? Unless you swap the tax advantage and make it so an individual can buy health insurance using pretax dollars, but if they get it through the employer than it is taxed…which honestly just seems a little weird?
Mark Brophy
Aug 25 2023 at 5:56pm
Nothing in the federal government is ever changed, fixed or abolished, no matter how badly it works. Ike’s military speech from 1960 applies just as much today as it did then. Americans have too much “status quo bias”, they’re content to watch the country slowly deteriorate because it’s better than declining as quickly as France and Britain in the 20th century.
robc
Aug 28 2023 at 9:33am
This argument makes no sense to me.
An insurance company with a one million individual clients has the seem risk spread as the same million clients spread across 10000 corporations. If anything, less risk, as they can price based on individual risk characteristics.
There would be a slightly higher cost due to premium collection, but that is pretty marginal, considering everyone else handles that just fine.
Jon Murphy
Aug 25 2023 at 12:34pm
I agree with robc that the best way to address the problem is by directly addressing the problem.
I think it would also be helpful to explore other distortions in the labor market. Other than the subsidy, are there other distortions that incentivize that behavior? I don’t know.
Knut P. Heen
Aug 25 2023 at 10:21am
I have been trying to understand why some people are so concerned because someone else refuse to buy something (like health insurance). The only reason I have been able to come up with is a combination of moral hazard and a bleeding heart. Some people may anticipate that they will be helped by someone else who feel sorry for them, and therefore not buy health insurance. The group that help them do not have the heart to say no. Hence, we end up in a situation in which the helpers try to force the exploiters (or someone else) to pay for their own weakness (the fact that they are not able say no to the exploiters).
Kevin Corcoran
Aug 25 2023 at 11:16am
I think that’s at least part of the story for sure. In his book The Accidental Theorist, Paul Krugman gives a sort-of-similar reasoning process for funding Coast Guard rescues through taxation that follows the same sort of reasoning you described here. Krugman argues that its in the interest of all boaters to have a rescue service, but no boater in particular has an incentive to contribute to funding that service, because if they are in need of rescuing they know someone will come for them regardless of whether or not they’ve paid. So nobody wants to pay, therefore the solution is to compel everyone to pay. Implicitly, the option of not sending a rescue team to help someone who refused to pay into it is ruled out by default. And that very fact is what creates the moral hazard problem that compulsory payment is meant to fix.
steve
Aug 25 2023 at 12:22pm
Remember that this is limited to emergency care. It’s not easy when you have someone with a dead bowel at 2:00 AM to sort out whether or not they failed to have insurance even if they could afford it. Better to treat. Besides, if they could really afford to buy insurance they are going to get billed, probably at a much higher rate then if they had insurance so it’s likely they end up paying anyway though some manage to wiggle out of it.
Also, it’s pretty hard to just stand aside and watch someone die knowing that you could likely save them. Would those be the kind of docs and nurses you want? Being human they will eventually make a mistake so what do we tell the families whose mother didnt get care when they mistakenly thought she didnt have insurance? Even worse in some ways, suppose they live but are permanently disabled. They now cost us even more money.
Steve
David Seltzer
Aug 25 2023 at 12:28pm
Knut: “The only reason I have been able to come up with is a combination of moral hazard and a bleeding heart. Some people may anticipate that they will be helped by someone else who feel sorry for them, and therefore not buy health insurance.” Bang on! People who engage in poor health habits force those externalities on the rest of us. Given the current healthcare system and cadre of bleeding hearts, there is no incentive for those, in self-induced poor health, to insure themselves from the consequences of those habits. Speaking for myself, I’m not duty bound to provide care for those who’ve been careless with their health. My heart does not bleed for them. Just a thought: If many of us assumed that position, would people be more careful about diets and exercise knowing they had to pay for their healthcare?
steve
Aug 25 2023 at 12:03pm
The people without insurance can only get emergency care. If they have a chronic illness that wont be covered. Elective care in general wont be covered which would include stuff like blood pressure medicine. However, when they show up in renal failure that will be covered.
2) There are some people who dont buy insurance even if they can afford it. Usually the younger people. However, last I looked most without insurance just cant afford it.
3) Its so engrained hat I think even if you took away the tax deduction employers would still offer it. Absent the ACA it’s the only realistic way many people with a chronic illness could afford insurance. That said, I think we would be better off if insurance was not tied to employment.
4) Its not clear increasing supply will lower total costs. Might increase them. (It might or might not decrease physician/provider pay, but the care that the providers order far outweighs their pay.) Decreasing supply likely decreases total spending. HSAs work well for people who are mostly healthy. Not so well for those who are not. I was a big believer so I made sure our corporation included it as an option from our founding. Over the years I see most people choose an HSA when they first start then change to conventional insurance when they start having kids or get older.
Steve
Jon Murphy
Aug 25 2023 at 12:22pm
Well, that’s factually incorrect. I get medical care all the time outside of insurance. I just pay out-of-pocket.
steve
Aug 25 2023 at 12:25pm
Thanks for the correction. Thought my response was already too long but it is true that if you dont have insurance AND you can afford it you can pay out of pocket. Paying something out fo pocket is pretty much the norm even if you do have insurance.
Steve
David Seltzer
Aug 25 2023 at 12:47pm
Jon: “Well, that’s factually incorrect. I get medical care all the time outside of insurance. I just pay out-of-pocket.” Good point! Three years ago I had a total hip replacement. As I’m covered under my wife’s plan, the surgeon billed the insurance provider $47,500. They settled at $23,000. Ironic as the implant was billed at $30,000. Go figure. On a follow up visit, I asked the surgeon what the bill for his services in his facility would be if I were uninsured or self-insured. He said about $12,000 and we could negotiate a payment plan. I could use my credit card, borrow from family, use savings or sell assets. Of course since my budget is constrained, I would forgo any other purchase in the amount of $12,000. In terms of quality of life, the trade-off would be well worth it.
robc
Aug 25 2023 at 4:21pm
That difference is exactly why some (self insured) employers are paying employees to get surgeries at the Surgery Center of Oklahoma. Its cheaper to fly them there, put them in a hotel for a few days and get the surgery than the negotiated insurance billed rate.
steve
Aug 25 2023 at 8:05pm
The Surgery Center of Oklahoma has benefited from a lot of promotion by libertarians. Their prices are about the same as those at my hospital network and many others. Also, their prices in some cases are not truly comprehensive as they would be at many other places. (Old info from a few years ago so could have changed if that info leaked.)
Steve
vince
Aug 25 2023 at 12:20pm
From the original article, about basic coverage being a shack and not a chateau:
“I wonder whether the authors worry about whether the same kind of political forces that ended co-pays in other countries or that added patchwork coverages in this country would lobby successfully to have various coverages included under “basic,” with the effect being higher spending, possibly even higher than it would have been. ”
That you wonder is a nice way to put what I assume you are sure will happen.
IMO, government-planned health insurance is bad but that’s where we will be if we don’t fix the current $4 trillion per year system.
Jose Pablo
Aug 26 2023 at 8:42am
That you wonder is a nice way to put what I assume you are sure will happen.
https://www.hoover.org/research/high-cost-good-intentions-history-us-federal-entitlement-programs
You are factually right. No doubts or “wonders” about that.
J Mann
Aug 25 2023 at 12:25pm
David, you place a lot of weight on health savings accounts, including in passages like the following:
I’d be curious to read more about why you’re positive about health savings accounts. My wife and I both have them, but I’m not a fan.
(1) They disproportionately help (and therefore incent) people with high marginal tax rates. It seems like those people are the least likely to be suffering a material lack of health services, and the most likely to be capable of planning for health emergencies,
(2) It seems like an unnecessarily complex process. If health expenses were tax-deductible from the first dollar, I wouldn’t need a whole separate savings and payment apparatus. Maybe it encourages some marginal savings, but see #1 – isn’t the population best able to take advantage of these things also the population who would be most likely to be able to save for these contingencies if they were simply tax deductible.
On top of that, I am generally opposed to crufting up the tax code in order to try to steer behavior, and would have thought you were too. The more complex the cruft, the less I like it.
(3) Doesn’t having a savings account that can only be used for health expenses (or just making health expenses tax deductible) reduce the behavioral gains from co-pays and co-insurance, which you also like?
vince
Aug 25 2023 at 2:32pm
J Mann, you make a good point about the benefit favoring high income taxpayers, but the same argument could be made for IRAs and 401Ks.
For IRAs and 401Ks, there’s a tax credit for low income taxpayers. Maybe something like that should be added for HSAs. (This is how tax law gets more complex.)
If health care spending is $4 trillion per year were allowed as tax deductions, the lost tax revenue would need replacing.
One other good feature of HSAs is that they reduce moral hazard by requiring a high deductible plan. As it is, our system is loaded with moral hazard.
Mark Brophy
Aug 25 2023 at 6:47pm
HSAs work for me but I’m not in a high tax bracket. I maintain my body well so my medical needs can be predicted and paid for using the HSA. Most people eat too much food and are fat so the system is geared to them rather than me.
J Mann
Aug 28 2023 at 10:30am
They work for me too, but I’m surprised David Henderson is a fan. First, they’re using the tax code to incent behavior, and second, they’re doing so in an unnecessarily complex way.
David Henderson
Aug 28 2023 at 11:17am
Good point. I’m partly a fan.
The tax code gives an artificial incentive for employers to overinsure their employees. HSAs give an incentive that goes against that: people with HSAs will be more willing to have catastrophic insurance rather than first-dollar coverage.
It is true, though, that both the tax treatment of employers’ contributions to their employees’ health insurance and HSAs give an incentive to use too much medical care. And I’m guessing that that’s your point.
Ahmed Fares
Aug 25 2023 at 3:31pm
When people tell you that we Canadians hate our healthcare system, they’re lying to you.
As an aside, an interesting fact about Tommy Douglas:
robc
Aug 25 2023 at 4:27pm
Stated vs revealed preference?
They state that they like it. But what does their behavior suggest?
While the number of Canadians who get health care outside the country is small (percentwise), its a pretty large absolute number.
Dylan
Aug 25 2023 at 6:03pm
To be fair, it goes the other way too. I’m friends with a few Canadians that live in the U.S., the majority of them hate the U.S. healthcare system so much that they fly or drive back to Canada when they need to see a doctor. Tell me that not only is it cheaper (for them) but they also can see a doc quicker.
I was pretty skeptical of that, until I saw that it took my dad a full year before he was able to get a tooth replaced that got knocked out from a fall (and he was paying out of pocket).
steve
Aug 25 2023 at 8:21pm
Pretty well studied. The percentage is very small. The absolute number last time i looked was in the 50,000-60,000 range. Looking at surveys about 1/4 of those cases are elective, meaning 3/4 of those surgeries are people having emergency surgery in the US. Of the electives a fair percentage are from medical staff who live in Windsor but work at Detroit hospitals so they choose to have care where they work. Note that Canada spends 10.8% of its GDP on health care and the US 16.8%. In return we have shorter wait times for some care. It’s a trade off but Canadians almost always poll as happier with their systems than Americans with ours. Finally, Canada has made a conscious decision in the case of some extremely rare kinds of care to save money by sending those patients to the US.
Steve
Water B
Aug 26 2023 at 12:36pm
Older Americans almost always poll as being happier with Medicare than with the alternative. We understand how Canadians feel.
Ahmed Fares
Aug 25 2023 at 4:34pm
Because of the social returns to education, one can make the case for government-funded education without resorting to the “right to education” argument. The same case can be made for government-funded healthcare without resorting to the “right to healthcare” argument.
In an economy with taxation, it makes good business sense to keep your citizens healthy, for the same reason that dairy farmers hire veterinarians to keep their cows healthy and not because cows have a right to healthcare.
Kevin
Aug 26 2023 at 12:09am
Doesn’t this line of thinking assume that we wouldn’t get education/healthcare, or at least not the same quality thereof, if it wasn’t provided by the government?
Ahmed Fares
Aug 26 2023 at 3:18pm
Kevin,
No, because healthcare for example is a credence good. This from Wikipedia:
Kevin
Aug 31 2023 at 9:49am
@Ahmed Fares
I still don’t see how your argument is supposed to work. Healthcare is a credence good, and you also point to its social returns. Why does this mean that the government should provide it?
Ahmed Fares
Aug 31 2023 at 3:36pm
Kevin,
These are two separate arguments.
Only the “credence good” argument is the reason government should provide healthcare. Canada spends roughly 11% of GDP on healthcare, versus roughly 18% for the US for roughly similar health outcomes. Canada’s spending is also similar to what Europeans spend as a percent of GDP. Check out the top two charts on the following Wikipedia page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_health_expenditure_per_capita
The other argument was simply not to get distracted by the “right to healthcare” issue because people might use that to prevent solving the first problem, i.e., that healthcare is a credence good and should be provided by government. In point of fact, I don’t believe anyone has a right to anything because everyone’s right is someone else’s obligation, which is immoral.
So, if the US adopts a healthcare system similar to Canada, you’ll have that extra 7% of GDP you can use for something else.
Jose Pablo
Aug 26 2023 at 9:03am
Because of the social returns to education,
This is far from clear. Education could, very easily, be zero sum from a “social perspective”
https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691196459/the-case-against-education
Ahmed Fares
Aug 26 2023 at 3:34pm
Jose Pablo,
Bryan Caplan is right, there are diminishing returns to human capital. Paraphrasing Caplan:
“In a world of Einsteins, Einsteins cook, clean, and take out the trash. An Einstein drives the garbage truck.”
There’s also the case that we have the wrong type of human capital.
As an example, we have a housing crisis here in Canada with a shortage of workers in the trades sector, which is worsening as older workers retire. Meanwhile, our universities are full of people doing grievance studies.
Jose Pablo
Aug 27 2023 at 10:47am
Yes.
According to my own personal experience (and I am an engineer by training, I can only imagine the case of Japanese, or English, Literature mayors!) universities are not in the business of building human capital. They are in the business of issuing “credentials”. Which is a whole different game.
Human capital is built mainly (only?) through on the job training. And yet, we have managed to make this “on the job human capital building” much more difficult and regulatorily way more complex. Increasing, at the same time, public (and private) spending in the socially useless inequality creating “credential issuing” business.
Jose Pablo
Aug 28 2023 at 11:05am
https://www.wsj.com/articles/state-university-tuition-increase-spending-41a58100
Speaking of which …
The kind of expenditure increases is much more compatible with being in the business of selling “shiny” credentials than with being in the business of selling practical/useful human capital creation.
Jose Pablo
Aug 26 2023 at 9:11am
1% of the population is “responsible” for close to a quarter of the total healthcare expenditure in a given year.
These “lucky” guys will spend more than $72,000. And, very likely, a significant part of them will be in that 1% for more than one year in their lives.
The top 5% of the population accounts for around 50% of total expenditures. They will expend more than $26,000 per year. Very likely for more than one year.
50% of the population will account for just 3% of expenditures (less than 1,300 dollars a year)
https://meps.ahrq.gov/data_files/publications/st533/stat533.shtml
This kind of figures seems to be asking for a general tax funded “cat bond” kind of insurance, which protects you only against “catastrophic” years (or “catastrophic luck in the genetic lottery” that could cause you to be in the wrong categories of expenditures for many years). You will pay “out of pocket” for “regular years” health insurance.
The authors seem to be defending precisely the opposite to a “cat bond” approach for public funded health care.
Jose Pablo
Aug 26 2023 at 9:22am
A cat bond is not the right reference (maybe at an individual level but not once you pool the risks at the government level).
A high deductible public funded universal health insurance, with individuals buying, if so they wish, a, very likely, way cheaper insurance to cover expenditures below the “catastrophic” threshold, would be a better “model”.
Health Care Plan For US!
Aug 26 2023 at 11:11am
I enjoyed the book (I’d already read Risky Business & like their writing style). Despite talking about asking the right question, they didn’t. The case for true universal coverage (UC) is easy to make. The correct question is how to fundamentally change how we finance & pay for care (what we/ they incorrectly call health insurance). The biggest problems are our 3rd party-payer model & crony-capitalism. When the question is how to achieve UC, the answer is almost inevitably a government run/admin. system, which doubles down on the problems.
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