I recently came across three news stories that are worth thinking about. The first story discussed the US government’s role in encouraging gun exports, which often lead to violence in developing countries. Here’s Bloomberg:
Last October, a recently fired police officer walked into his stepson’s nursery school in the remote northeast of Thailand and, in under 30 minutes, killed 23 children and two teachers. Panya Kamrab hacked some of his victims to death with a sugar-cane machete and shot others point blank with a pistol, including three local government employees eating lunch outside the school. The rampage, which left a total of 36 dead, ranks as the worst in Thai history and one of the worst in the world.
The killer’s gun, a Sig Sauer P365 — touted by the company as small enough to easily conceal yet able to hold 13 rounds — had traveled more than 8,000 miles from a factory on New Hampshire’s rocky seacoast to Thailand’s lush Nong Bua Lamphu province. It was part of a growing number of semiautomatic handguns and rifles exported by American gunmakers and linked to violent crimes. . . . The federal government has helped push international sales of rapid-fire guns to record levels.
Is the US government responsible for the deaths caused by the gun exports that it encourages? Or does the blame lie with those who used the guns?
Here’s Politico:
Secretary of State Antony Blinken ended three days of meetings in China on Friday with a stark warning to China’s leadership — stop exporting materials that allow Russia to rebuild its industrial base or face U.S. sanctions.
Chinese state-owned firms are providing key components for Russia’s defense industrial base, including microelectronics and machine tools that have “a material effect against Ukraine” and constitute “a growing threat that Russia poses to countries in Europe,” Blinken told reporters in a press briefing in Beijing on Friday.
Is the Chinese government responsible for the way that Russia uses its machine tools and microelectronics?
To be clear, there’s a good argument for China cutting off exports of key materials to Russia. But it’s also important to recognize that countries often put their own economic interests ahead of those of small countries half way around the world. A third story explores just such a case, involving a split between the US government and Ukraine on the question of drone strikes on Russia:
The US has urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, warning that the drone strikes risk driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation, according to three people familiar with the discussions.
The repeated warnings from Washington were delivered to senior officials at Ukraine’s state security service, the SBU, and its military intelligence directorate, known as the GUR, the people told the Financial Times. . . .
One person said that the White House had grown increasingly frustrated by brazen Ukrainian drone attacks that have struck oil refineries, terminals, depots and storage facilities across western Russia, hurting its oil production capacity.
Russia remains one of the world’s most important energy exporters despite western sanctions on its oil and gas sector. Oil prices have risen about 15 per cent this year, to $85 a barrel, pushing up fuel costs just as US President Joe Biden begins his campaign for re-election.
In both the US and Chinese cases, there is a conflict between foreign policy interests and domestic economic interests. China’s economy benefits from exporting manufactured goods to China, and the US economy benefits from lower global oil prices. On the other hand, a Chinese export embargo would help Ukraine by weakening the Russian defense capability, and drone strikes on Russia’s oil sector deny Russia funds that help finance its war machine. How should these dilemma’s be resolved?
As far as I can tell, the US prefers that China is the one to sacrifice in support Ukraine. Indeed the US government feels so strongly about this issue that it threatens sanctions against China if the Chinese government doesn’t adopt sanctions against Russia. (Interestingly, India’s exports of manufactured goods to Russia have recently doubled in value, but the US is not threatening economic sanctions on India.)
On the other hand, when it comes to drone strikes the US government seems much less willing to sacrifice. Even though drones are an increasingly effective weapon, we ask the Ukrainians to sacrifice by not using this weapon against Russian oil refineries. High oil prices might inconvenience our consumers.
To be clear, I am not arguing that there are any easy answers to these questions. Instead, I am asking people to consider how these questions would be viewed if the roles were reversed. What if Chinese exported guns were causing mayhem and murder throughout much of the developing world? How would we feel about that? How would a Chinese person feel if the US government sanctioned China over machine exports to Russia? How would Americans feel if the EU sanctioned the US because they believed our cheap energy policy was leading to global warming?
Everyone feels passionately about certain issues. (I passionately support Ukraine’s defense of its homeland.) But people in different countries often feel passionately about different issues. I’m not sure its reasonable to expect a uniformity of views, and I’m not sure it’s wise to sanction everyone who differs from our perspective—especially if we exempt countries from sanctions solely because they are our “friends”.
PS. A recent story in Foreign Affairs suggests that the Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia do not increase the global price of oil, which further weakens the US government position on this issue.
READER COMMENTS
steve
May 10 2024 at 1:45pm
Thanks for adding the update. I think the US was just wrong and/or they were assuming Ukraine would hit oil production sites. Hitting the refineries was much more clever. It increases prices as they have fuel shortages and it also means they need to import refined fuel, also costing them more money. Russia apparently has the ability to pump more oil so they are doing that but they need to send it elsewhere to be refined.
On the guns, more shootings is just the price paid to have the freedom to own guns. If they dont buy them from the US there are lots of other places making them.
Steve
Scott Sumner
May 10 2024 at 3:55pm
Steve, You said:
“On the guns, more shootings is just the price paid to have the freedom to own guns.”
I’m not saying you are wrong, but is more drug overdose deaths the price paid to have freedom to consume drugs? And why do we criticize the Chinese export of chemicals that can be used to make fentanyl?
steve
May 11 2024 at 1:26am
Yes, if we had never used narcotics for licit purposes we probably would have had fewer people use them illegally, and die. How much more I am not sure since opium had been used for an awful long time.
I think we criticize China, as well as Mexico, because we want someone to blame for our problems.
Steve
Scott Sumner
May 11 2024 at 12:04pm
I agree.
Robert Benkeser
May 10 2024 at 2:26pm
Although I get the point, exporting handguns is in no way, shape, or form comparable to what China is doing. China is providing satellite imagery and the means for Russia to wage a full-scale war. A better argument would be to criticize the United States for arming authoritarian regimes, as we did during the Cold War.
I agree that it is two-faced for us to criticize Ukraine for striking Russian refineries. But the Biden administration struggles mightily to understand either economics or how to fight an existential war.
Deaths from firearms overseas are tragic, but they don’t upset the American-led international order the way that supplying Russia’s genocidal war in Ukraine does. Some would be glad to see the American-led international order collapse, but I’m fairly certain the entire world would be much, much worse off as a result.
Libertarian principles, including free trade, are great as long as everyone obeys certain ground rules, such as opposing territorial conquests or genocidal wars. But once countries start defecting from those ground rules, it would be foolish to continue as we have before.
Scott Sumner
May 10 2024 at 3:58pm
“China is providing satellite imagery”
That’s not what this post is about. I discussed the export of machines and electronics.
“Libertarian principles, including free trade, are great as long as everyone obeys certain ground rules, such as opposing territorial conquests or genocidal wars.”
Here’s my position: Libertarian principles, including free trade, are great as long as everyone obeys certain ground rules, such as refraining from engaging in territorial conquests or genocidal wars.
Lizard Man
May 10 2024 at 3:29pm
China is selling stuff to Russia because it helps their war effort, not in spite of it. Putin sought and received Xi’s blessing to go ahead with the invasion beforehand. China’s leaders view the war favorably (or at least they view Russia’s goals favorably, maybe not their execution).
Scott Sumner
May 10 2024 at 4:11pm
“China’s leaders view the war favorably”
I doubt that. How does Crimean independence from Ukraine differ from Taiwanese independence from China? The war is not in China’s economic or political interest.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/4/17/is-china-growing-tired-of-russias-war-in-ukraine
Lizard Man
May 10 2024 at 11:33pm
“China’s expectations for a swift Russian victory, likely influenced by high-profile meetings between Putin and Xi before key military escalations, reveal a pattern of pre-coordinated aggression. Their encounters before the 2022 Ukraine invasion at the Beijing Winter Olympics and prior to the 2014 Crimea occupation at the Sochi Winter Olympics suggest an anticipated strengthening of Sino-Russian ties. This situation raises questions about the outcomes China expected from these invasions, outcomes that have not materialised as foreseen and possibly promised by Putin.”
China’s leadership is upset that the Russians aren’t winning, not that they invaded territory that in the past was part of Russia. Putin’s justification for the war is the same one that the Chinese claim regarding Taiwan. Ukraine really was once a part of the Russian empire, and Taiwan really once was ruled by the Qing empire. What would be really awesome would be for China’s leadership to recognize Taiwan as independent and end all of their border disputes with other nations. Doing that might be as risky to Xi’s legacy (and life) as trying to invade Taiwan and failing, but he could attempt it at any time. That wouldn’t guarantee that nationalists in the US wouldn’t still try to sanction China and impose tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade, but it would immensely benefit China’s people, as the government currently spends more of its GDP on the military than the US does. China’s leadership is giving every indication that they are preparing for war. The US, Taiwan and the other nations in China’s neighborhood should be preparing to defend Taiwan, so much so that everyday Xi Jinping says to himself “today isn’t the right day, the odds of failure are too high.” Also, nationalism will be an order of magnitude worse if the US and its allies are incapable of defending Taiwan.
Scott Sumner
May 11 2024 at 12:07pm
“Putin’s justification for the war is the same one that the Chinese claim regarding Taiwan.”
This is incorrect. Russia recognized Ukraine as a sovereign independent country. There is no dispute of that fact. China never recognized Taiwan as being independent. Indeed neither Taiwan nor the US claims Taiwan is independent. The correct analogy is Crimea and Ukraine, and China knows this.
JoeF
May 12 2024 at 8:48am
Are you sure about that? For example:
https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/when-the-ccp-thought-taiwan-should-be-independent/
I also don’t think the Taiwanese people I worked with (admittedly, 20+ years ago) saw themselves as Chinese.
Scott Sumner
May 12 2024 at 6:11pm
The official position of both the Mainland and Taiwanese governments is that Taiwan is a part of China. I understand that many on Taiwan view their island as independent, but that’s not the official position (in the ROC constitution.)
That’s very different from Ukraine, which has been universally recognized as an independent country.
Robert Benkeser
May 10 2024 at 3:45pm
As far as India goes, yes, I think any country trading with a genocidal, authoritarian regime should be taking a hard look in the mirror (I sold off all of my India equities once it was clear that they were not firmly supporting Ukraine). However, as far as I know, India is not directly supporting Russia’s defense industrial base the way China is. If that changes, then of course we should treat India and China the same.
Additionally, European countries need to be taking a long, hard look in the mirror for continuing to buy Russian oil and gas.
rajar
May 30 2024 at 8:46am
USA and Europe had no problems arming and supporting Pakistan for decades. Why should India care about the west’s feelings now?
Mark Z
May 10 2024 at 4:48pm
A major reason it seems for this ostensible hypocrisy is that the US government expects that Russians are also passionate in their defense of their homeland, and public (and elite) pressure on the Russian government to continue or escalate the war will likely increase in response to attacks on Russian soil. If anything it’s a rare instance of politicians being aware of how we would react. If the Vietnamese were able to attack American soil we’d likely have fought them to the bitter end.
Richard W Fulmer
May 10 2024 at 6:41pm
Ideally, a nation’s leaders will act to further the long-term interests of a majority of their citizens. However, leaders often act in their own interests as Biden seems to be doing in the case of Ukraine. Higher oil prices are bad for him in the short term given the upcoming election. This outweighs the question of whether a Ukrainian victory is in the long-term interests of most Americans.
Similarly, Xi Jinping’s priority doesn’t appear to be the material well-being of the Chinese people. If it were, he would not be centralizing control over China’s society and economy. Nor would he be strangling the golden goose that is Hong Kong or threatening trading partners such as Taiwan, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, Australia, and the US. Instead, Xi’s goal seems to be replacing the US as the world’s essential nation. He will back Russia’s play in Ukraine if he believes that doing so will further that ambition.
vince
May 10 2024 at 7:55pm
There’s no inherent bad intent in selling a handgun. As for the US not wanting oil infrastructure strikes, my guess is the US doesn’t want to undermine public support for another endless war.
Scott Sumner
May 11 2024 at 12:11pm
“There’s no inherent bad intent in selling a handgun.” OK, but you could say the same about selling machine tools and microelectronics. If you believe that’s being naive (and maybe it is), could the same be said about selling massive numbers of semiautomatic weapons to Mexican drug gangs?
MarkW
May 30 2024 at 6:46am
As for the US not wanting oil infrastructure strikes
The Biden admin doesn’t want rising gas prices during an election year.
nobody.really
May 14 2024 at 4:47am
I don’t know how accurate this statement is. People have suggested a variety of rationales for US policy opposing drone strikes in Russia. I’ll offer one more: Maybe those strikes are great for Ukraine. But maybe US military assistance is better. And maybe if energy costs (and other costs) remain high in the US, Trump will win the next election and discontinue military aid to Ukraine. Given that dynamic, Ukraine may find it in Ukraine’s best military interest to refrain from attacking Russian oil refineries. Thus, I do see any necessary hypocracy here.
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