Nayib Bukele, the dictatorial president of El Salvador, provides a good illustration of a few themes I have discussed on this blog. Let me emphasize two. A six-minute YouTube video from The Economist and an article in the magazine (“Gangsters in El Salvador Are Terrified of Strongmen Nayib Bukele,” February 2, 2024) provide some background.
First, Bukele’s policies illustrate my dystopian post “A Simplistic Model of Public Policy.” I noted that if all young Americans between 18 and 24 were imprisoned, the murder rate would, at first sight, decrease by 39%. Like many South American countries, El Salvador had a very serious gang problem—a consequence of corrupt or incompetent governments, the demand for illegal drugs by Americans combined with the war on drugs here, and no doubt the practical and legal impossibility of ordinary Salvadorans to defend themselves against thugs. Bukele was elected in 2019 and reelected on February 4 despite the country’s constitution barring a second term. On flimsy evidence if any, his government has arrested and imprisoned 8% of the young male population. These suspected gang members have not been tried yet and, when trials come, they will be collective trials where dozens or perhaps hundreds will be “judged” together. Violence has dropped dramatically, and Bukele is “one of the most popular leaders in the world,” according to The Economist. The danger now is the police state, prefigured by mothers whose sons are snatched away by the police without any due process and imprisoned in dire conditions and without any family visit. As usual, the subversion of judicial independence has been necessary to obtain this result.
My second point relates to the answer of Gustavo Villatoro, Bukele’s minister of justice and internal security, to whom the Economist’s correspondent asked how he reacted to criticism from human rights organizations. He replied contemptuously (see the video):
We don’t work for human-rights organizations, we work for Salvadorean citizens.
If he meant “the Salvadorean citizens” (his command of English may not be perfect), he was obviously wrong: he certainly does not work for the innocent citizens who are imprisoned and their families and loved ones. What the minister is really saying, consciously or not, is that he works for some Salvadorean citizens against others, even if the former are (still) more numerous than the latter. “The people” is not one big person. A majoritarian Police State is still a Police State.
A (classical) liberal society is very different, even admitting that reality did not always live up to the ideal. At least, there is a guiding ideal, which is that the government does not “work for” a portion of the citizens, but instead supplies public security (and arguably other “public goods”) that everybody presumably wants, and treats equally all citizens—in fact, all residents and even foreign visitors. The details differ in different liberal theories. To simplify a bit too much, theories à la Hayek claim that the government protects the rule of law for everybody equally, while theories à la Buchanan make government the enforcer of general rules to which all citizens have presumably consented. (Anthony de Jasay, who defined himself as a liberal anarchist, argued that the state is always more or less a Bukele state: it cannot avoid harming some individuals and favoring others, which is what is meant by “governing.”)
In another EconLog post, I told the story of my late friend George Jonas, who visited communist Hungary as a tourist two decades after fleeing the country. One night, as he was walking with his woman companion along the pitch-black Grand Boulevard of Budapest (pitch-black was the color of the night under communism), she became apprehensive. George recalled in his memoirs (Beethoven’s Mask: Notes on My Life and Times [Key Porter Books, 2005]):
She reached for my hand and huddled closer to me. “Relax,” I said. “You’re in Hungary. Here you’ve nothing to worry about, until you see a policeman.”
READER COMMENTS
Craig
Feb 8 2024 at 9:43am
“Like many South American countries, El Salvador had a very serious gang problem—a consequence of corrupt or incompetent governments, the demand for illegal drugs by Americans combined with the war on drugs here, and no doubt the practical and legal impossibility of ordinary Salvadorans to defend themselves against thugs.”
If one chooses criminality, the core problem remains within oneself.
Excuses are like ah, everybody got one, right? There is no excuse for that level of criminality.
Scott Sumner
Feb 8 2024 at 12:20pm
There may not be excuses, but there are explanations. During Prohibition, the murder rate in America rose dramatically (and then plunged immediately after Prohibition was repealed.) This violence did not occur because Americans “within themselves” became worse people, it happened because of foolish public policies.
Andrew_FL
Feb 8 2024 at 4:18pm
The murder rate did not rise dramatically under prohibition. This is an artifact of the incomplete data before 1933. See Eckberg, homicides rose only modestly and gradually from 1900-1933.
Peter
Feb 8 2024 at 1:58pm
Could be they didn’t choose criminality but instead they had it thrust upon them by government writ. Arbitrarily trade bans are exactly that, arbitrary. Should you not sell milk because you worry tomorrow the government will criminalize it and, once they do, should you stop selling it even though it could just as quickly be re-legalized again. Want to solve the violence problem, give criminals access to the courts to resolve differences the same as any other businessman.
Pierre Lemieux
Feb 8 2024 at 3:12pm
Craig: I am a bit surprised by your comment, especially coming from a lawyer (and an intelligent one, at that!). We do not know how many innocents there are among the 70,000+ arrested and kept with no contact with judges and the outside world. (And a judge doesn’t judge “that level of criminality,” but an individual charged with specific criminal acts.)
Craig
Feb 8 2024 at 3:30pm
“(and an intelligent one, at that!)”
Thanks, please send that to my wife at iamalwaysright@craigswife.com
My point is much more narrow and your statement about South American nations having gang problems alludes to the fact that people are gangsters and commit crimes as a gangster not that they aren’t entitled to procedural Due Process. My comment should be taken that, as a GIVEN, the person is a gangster and has committed criminal acts accordingly.
Indeed as I think Scott may be alluding to with his comment about ‘explanation’ if you are offering certain things as explanations and not as justification/excuse/mitigation I understand. Valentine’s Day is coming and if someone finds themselves in a warehouse gunning down people with a tommy gun instead of bringing their wife a box of Russell Stover chocolates, one can offer Prohibition as an explanation for why criminality is now associated with the alcohol trade but not necessarily as an excuse, mitigating factor, justification for disproportionate crimes. An individual perpetrating such an act must look within oneself for his or her own moral failing at that point. That’s where gangs like MS13/Barrio 18 are.
Craig
Feb 8 2024 at 3:52pm
Now to address the detention of 70k just generally, such an act theoretically could happen if Congress suspended habeas corpus effectively declaring a state of martial law. Many of the cases in the US stem from the US Civil War and the War on Terror/Afghanistan. Ultimately my impression is is that apparently these gangs have engaged in criminality to such a level that El Salvador has correctly declared a ‘state of exception’ / martial law. As to whether or not it has been ‘correctly’ declared is a constitutional question in El Salvador. I don’t personally have any opinion one way or the other (since I don’t live there) only that the people vested with constitutional authority in El Salvador to so declare are the ones doing it and here I am also reading that some of this is playing out in typical banana republic style. One can be betwixted and between on that. I’d suggest one could be of the opinion that Lincoln should have suspended habeas corpus, but it really should’ve been Congress that did it, right?
Jose Pablo
Feb 8 2024 at 5:37pm
that the government does not “work for” a portion of the citizens, but instead supplies public security
the government protects the rule of law
make government the enforcer of general rules
Except that governments don’t do (never have done) any of these things:
Take a look at Warren vs District of Columbia, 1981, that clearly stated that “a government and his agents are under no general duty to provide public services such as police protection, to any particular individual citizen“. The government’s duty, as explained by the court, is only a duty “to the public at large”, to provide a general deterrent to crime*.
And take a look at the clearing rates in the US. No more than 1/3 of crimes in the US get cleared. Even very serious crimes: only half of the murders and one quarter of the rapes are cleared.
Describing this reality as “a liberal government supplying public security” can only be understood as a joke.
Particularly so when, in exchange for this joke of protection, governments claim a monopoly on violence and the right to extort taxes from “very badly only on a best effort basis protected” citizens.
The native Americans selling Manhattan to the Dutch got a much better deal!
* Quoted from Huemer’s “The Problem of Political Authority” (pg 32)
Mactoul
Feb 8 2024 at 10:42pm
President Bukele merely wishes to expedite a process that took a millennium in Europe– removal of violent males from the gene pool. This being an essential perquisite for the establishment of market economy.
Plenty of people worldwide yearn for a dose of social prophylaxis to be applied, though not to them personally.
Jose Pablo
Feb 8 2024 at 11:21pm
a process that took a millennium in Europe– removal of violent males
That’s weird because the most violent period in Europe was 1939-45. The number of violent deaths during that period was around 1/3 of the whole population of Europe at the beginning of the second millennium.
It is also difficult to see how the crowding out of “individual violence” by “government sponsored violence” helps markets. Afterall, the disruption of markets during the 1939-45 period was very significant.
Mactoul
Feb 9 2024 at 4:05am
Modern population size is huge but the rate of violence, such as murder rate fell hugely in Europe during last thousand years, if we believe Steven Pinker –The Better Angels of our Nature –has a relevant data.
Jose Pablo
Feb 9 2024 at 7:16am
Sure, and the killing of female nuns in the costs of Northumbria also felt significantly.
Focusing on an specific type of violence can always do that.
Jim Glass
Feb 9 2024 at 9:25pm
Yup, the murder rate in Europe declined fully two orders of magnitude, 99%, from the middle ages to the 20th Century.
Nah. Killing nuns female and male is included in the murder rate. But there’s been a massive decline in deaths by violence from all causes, since and during the rise of states. The 20th Century to today has been the least violent time ever. Way, way more peaceful than in all these pre-state societies in their Anarchy of Eden.
“The actual percentage of the population that died violently was on the average higher in traditional pre-state societies than it was even in Poland during the Second World War or Cambodia under Pol Pot.” — Jared Diamond.
“If the death rates of tribal warfare had prevailed during the 20th Century there would have been two billion deaths from war, instead of one hundred million.” — Pinker
Data covering all kinds of death from violence at very many different times…
https://ourworldindata.org/ethnographic-and-archaeological-evidence-on-violent-deaths
Don’t resist. Embrace. Be happy. It’s good news!
Pierre Lemieux
Feb 9 2024 at 11:26pm
Jim: Your last paragraph vaguely resembles the chief ruler’s advice in THX-1138, the fabulous George Lucas film:
Jim Glass
Feb 11 2024 at 1:06am
Hey, if the rise of the state helped me avoid a 100x higher murder rate and 2 billion deaths by war during the 20th Century, I’ll be happy to enjoy that blessing!
I lived for years in the Bronx and had a 20th Century draft card!
Jon Murphy
Feb 9 2024 at 8:23am
Given market economies existed and thrived for about 400 years or so before eugenics came along, your eugenic claim about needing to cleanse a certain “gene” from society must occur before market economies can exist is suspect.
johnson85
Feb 9 2024 at 1:27pm
Watching the videos, which granted there’s all sorts of things that could be happening and not be in the videos, it looks like they basically arrested and imprisoned anybody that they thought was associated with a gang. It appeared to be about 100% of the prisoners that had prominent tattoos, presumably gang tattoos.
Those are a lot of assumptions on my part, and I wouldn’t bet any money on how likely they are to be correct because I am simply ignorant of the facts on the ground. But if that’s basically what they did, I think judging it by classical ideas is somewhat ridiculous. Before the roundup, non-criminal citizens had it relatively rougher. Some young males undoubtedly joined the gangs and made visible commitments to them because that was easier, even though it helped propagate a lot of violence against innocent people. Now other people have essentially decided it’s easier for them if everybody associated with the gangs are locked up, even if some of those people didn’t actually personally commit any violence.
Definitely not ideal and something of a tragedy, but seemingly less of a tragedy than the situation before. Certainly I would advocate that anybody without a gang tattoo and without any individualized evidence against them should be released immediately. But there has to be some level or order and civility in a society before classical liberal values can survive. Ecuador is probably not there right now and unfortunately it’s not likely classical liberal values are going to somehow emerge out of authoritarian acts. But they’re even less likely to emerge out of gangs essentially acting as territorial warlords.
Pierre Lemieux
Feb 9 2024 at 8:20pm
Johnson85: Let’s disregard that there is no way to know who was associated with gangs and to which extent besides a trial before impartial judges and unanimous juries. Old tattoos are no proof.
You put your finger on the problem when you say:
Perhaps yes, perhaps no. With due respect, as Anthony de Jasay would note, this is just somebody’s say-so; others believe the contrary. Has somebody measured all the consequences of the alternative states of the world over the next 50 or 100 years for all individuals, and weighed them by adding and subtracting utils of the individuals involved? Where did the util numbers come from? And what about peaceful Budapest? Was the harm to the victims of communism not as bad as the harm that would have been caused otherwise to other (or the same) people? What about comparing this with what would have happened without communism? And what about my proposal of reducing the American murder rate 39% by locking up all young men from 18 to 24?
Doesn’t it seem pretty obvious that this approach is not a valid method to evaluate social-political-economic alternatives? As you correctly suggest, nothing is perfect, but this does not justify the state to arbitrarily decide what is less imperfect.
David Gretzschel
Feb 11 2024 at 12:48pm
First of all, this statement is not badly phrased, only because it is ambiguous on a logical level. When I say for example “I love humans.”, the most obvious interpretation is that I love humans in general, not that I love an unspecified number of humans between 2 and the full 8,090,000,000.
Also you are wrong. He obviously does work for them too! The imprisoned subgroup contained (near) all the violent criminals. (at least, this seems to be a mostly true and/or reasonable assumption, given that violent crime mostly stopped)
This group and their loved ones outside would also likely constitute a majority of the victims of that violence. For the innocent this would still be be protective custody. For the less innocent, the same applies. If you imprison a hundred murderers, you will still act at least partly in each individual murderer’s interest, by protecting him from the 99 other murderers! So in the end, there is hardly that much a contradiction in the interests of the individual criminal and the general public, as you make it out to be. While the criminals (and those who had the misfortune of being associated with them) and their loved ones may very well not prefer this, government is not in the business of respecting everyone’s preferences unconditionally. When it believes itself to be acting in your and the general publics’ best interest, it will not hestitate to violate those preference, if it thinks it is necessary to do so.
I was under the impression, that this is unprecedented rather than usual, actually. Normally, when we see a police state emerge, it’s because the criminals have taken over. Or instead of the criminals, it’s collectivist ideologues, who just so happen to plunder, ruin and destroy all existing institutions in the name of revolutionary transformation. Though honestly, the latter group are just hipster criminals really 🙂
Pierre Lemieux
Feb 15 2024 at 9:04pm
David: What you gave is not a bad definition of tyranny:
Try to define “the general public’s best interest.” A good antidote is Anthony de Jasay’s The State.
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